June 20
June 21 - 23 2002 Weekend
Alex and Emma
$9.7M
The Hulk
$45.2M
Lee: I don't know if it's just me, but I see Hulk as a Godzilla,
mid $50's 3-day. I don't believe anyone who tries to say that it'll be
Spider-like.
Jason: Spider-like, no way. Godzilla sounds about right. I still don't understand Spider-man though, so I can't
say no way with as much certainty as I would like.
Lee: Godzilla had a pretty good teaser, whereas Hulk's was pretty
tame.
Jason: I still remember that Saturday when the whisper numbers
with $40 million and I thought it was a typo.
Lee:
From Godzilla's teaser I was dying to see the movie. And
then it sucked.
Jason: Hulk probably won't suck as much as Godzilla, though.
Lee: Hulk doesn't give me the same feel
- nowhere near.
Jason: It does look like a lot of computer animation and
smashing stuff. I hate to insult Hulk fans, but isn't that basically the
story?
Lee:
It looks sort of like Armageddon - a long and loud video game. But I liked Armageddon in a reasonable sense.
Jason: I'll go with $50 mil for Hulk as well.
Lee: I have a friend who says there's a good story behind it. He
gets irritated whenever I say it doesn't look great.
Jason: He can email you and defend it, but for now it looks pretty simple.
Lee: I'm not sure on Alex & Emma, the other movie that weekend.
Jason: I haven't heard enough about it to really say anything.
Lee: I saw the trailer before Mighty Wind, looks pretty decent
but nothing special. Luke Wilson and Kate Hudson. Of course, they tag on the "from rob reiner, the director of
When Harry Met Sally" to convince us.
Jason: Can't see it making much.
Lee: Luke's on a pretty decent track with the female side of the
crowd -
Legally Blonde, that, and then LB2.
Jason: This set up seems decent scheduling, though. Clearly there will be a sizable group of moviegoers that
have no desire to see Hulk smash tanks.
June 27
June 28 - 30 2002 Weekend
Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle:
$33.1M 28 Days Later:
$16.4M
Lee: It was funny, first I thought that 28 Days Later movie the
next week was the sequel to that Sandra Bullock movie. I figured who the hell
would know the title. I don't know anything about it, though. Then there's Full Throttle, which I'm not quite sure on. Originally I thought Bernie Mac's presence in the teaser was pretty clever, and
now with the new trailer it makes me question it in terms of getting people excited.
Jason: I think most people realized the original was pretty
awful, but let me see if Cinemascore backs me up on this.
Lee:
But there's always an audience for cheesy fun movies, if that's what they
call them. Unless you're Eight Legged Freaks.
Jason: Nope, A- for Charlie's Angels. Looks like most people liked it.
Lee: I figure it would be a little tough not to repeat the
original
with the size of their campaign so far.
Jason: 68% on RottenTomatoes - looks like I'm in the minority. Regardless though, the opening will be frontloaded but
strong.
Lee:
I'd say around $45 - 50 for CA2.
July 2
July 2002 Box Office
Wednesday, July 3 2002 Box Office
Legally Blonde 2
$35.4M
Terminator 3
$53.7M
Sinbad $26.2M
Lee: I've got a strange feeling T3 could get
the Wild Wild West treatment. I always hear people mocking the "She'll be back" line.
Jason: It's looking that way. T3 looks like the disappointment of the summer.
Lee: Originally I thought MIB2 would be an easy target, but
that's not overly looking encouraging at this point.
Jason: There hasn't been one encouraging sign.
Lee: Legally Blonde 2 could end up being an Austin Powers 2 for
females
but I'm not positive. The trailer's pretty much what you'd expect.
Jason: $35 mil for Legally Blonde 2
Lee: I have no idea about Sinbad, barely know anything about it.
Jason: I'm not sure about T3. It should have a lot of hype, but the trailer just looks
so disappointing. I see the possibility of an embarrassingly close race that
weekend and ultimately Blonde beating out T3 down the line at least on the
dailies.
Lee: Wild Wild West did around $28 for 3days and
about $40 for
5-day. Armageddon was $36 and $54. It's one of those few situations where I almost wouldn't mind
the chick flick beating it out. It
just depends how corny LB2 is. If T3 is losing James Cameron and Edward Furlong, those
could be more crucial than you think in terms of sales, along with Linda
Hamilton.
Jason: But if the movie is as bad as I worry it is, it could
make $50 and end up with a total of $150 or something.
Lee:: T3 could maybe pull a Batman & Robin if it's terrible,
gets a good opening weekend, and then stays in theaters for 3 weeks. That
had a similar situation too -
famous director leaving and the project getting screwed over. Well, even though
Schumacher did Batman Forever.
Jason: I think that's likely. The Superbowl marketing was embarrassingly bad. I think true fans will have to live with T2:3D
as the next best thing to a real sequel to T2.
Lee: I think Batman & Robin had the supreme advantage of being
Batman,
whereas I'm not sure if the terminator is on the same level.
Jason: It's pretty close.
July 9
Wednesday, July 10 2002 Box Office
Pirates of the Caribbean
$33.2M
Jason: Pirates, one of the only big non-sequels this summer, although based on a ride, so it's not quite original.
Lee: If it were a 3-day opening, I'd say Scooby Doo easily, but
the 5-day is harder.
Jason: Looking through the list, I don't see any original movies
- Finding Nemo,
I suppose. Pirates looks like mid $30s for the weekend.
Lee:
To me it looks like Pirates will be the movie to see, in a
gigantic sense. I see the teaser trailer as well as the official one and it
screams huge.
Jason: Disney marketing at its best.
Lee:
Call me crazy, but I can see $70 for 5-days.
Jason: Wow - crazy it is.
Lee:
And it's got Orlando Bloom.
Jason: I couldn't make that call from this far out, but that
would be a huge success. BOFC average would be around $45 - 48 prediction for the 5
day. |
