Lee's Movie Info - Summer Movie Predictions

Jason: I'd like to have seen the group meeting that came up with 2 Fast 2 Furious' title.
Lee: With a likely broadened theater count - slightly less quantity of people but same relative gross as original.
Jason: Yeah, maybe a bit less.
Lee: The lack of Diesel will kill it slightly, but moviegoers will still want fast car chases.
Jason: It looks more like crashes in this one.
Lee: And it's John Singleton; nobody knew who Rob Cohen from the first was.
Jason: I hate to say it, but Diesel has screen presence and no one else has it in the trailer for 2 Fast 2 Furious.
Jeremy: Furious is going to be a huge disappointment.
Lee: It actually looks like it could be slightly better than the original, but I'm not counting on it being good
Jeremy: It might be a better film, but that's not saying much. This movie is just trying to rest on the laurels of the previous one.
Lee: I didn't favor the original at all.
Jason: What's the next one going to be called? Forever Fast Forever Furious, F⁴
Lee: Furious Forever.
Jason: Forever seems to be the choice for 3rd.
Jeremy: Italian job looks to be a much better film than Furious, at least from trailers and cast.
Lee: Agreed there.
Jeremy: I doubt there will be a third one.
Jason: I doubt 2 Fast will be better than the original despite the bad sentiment; the first was decent for what it was.
Jeremy: Definitely, only about $25 million for Furious 2.
Jason: This seems like a derivative of the first.
Lee: I see a $32 - 38 opening for Furious.
Jason: Yeah, I would say mid-$30s at least.
Jeremy: The lack of Diesel is really something that holds this film down. I cannot believe I said that, but Diesel was the part part of the first one.
Lee: $14ish opening day, drops over the weekend.
Jason: I can't see the series collapse so quickly.
Jeremy: Why, the first one came out of nowhere in its popularity; it was not built-in.
Jason: People want to see car racing - Diesel was extra.
Lee: I'm not sure Diesel was even completely well known when Furious
came out. I think the car racing was what got people really excited.
Jeremy: Really, then why did Driven do so poorly? That had better car-racing.
Jason: It's white boy preppy racing vs. street racing.
Lee: Stallone isn't Diesel. Maybe back in the day, but not today.
Jason: No one has F1s to race around; modified civics are a bit more realistic.
Jeremy: See it's all about the Vin Diesel badass attitude. Isn't Paul Walker a preppy white boy? He is the leading actor for the new one.
Jason: But he had characters to balance him out...
Jeremy: Not anymore, though, with Diesel gone.
Jason: He still does.
Lee: Diesel brings in more of a tough-guy audience, whereas Walker may keep some of them out.
Jeremy: What about Michelle Rodriguez, she's not in it either?
Lee: I know there are females who love Diesel's muscles and all, so that's even an extra supporting factor.
Jeremy: Diesel's sister?
Jason: Yes yes, but no one will figure this out until the weekend is over. Sticking with mid $30s.
Jeremy: You can tell from the trailers - audiences are a little smarter than studios think sometimes.
Jason: It might have trouble cracking $100, but it will hit $30 by weekend's end.
Lee: It could be a Red Dragon - big weekend, no one cares afterward.

June 13 June 2002 Box Office June 14 -16 2002 Weekend
Dumb and Dumberer $21.1M Hollywood Homicide $16.9M
From Justin To Kelley $18.9M Rugrats $20.7M

Jason: Smarter? How about Dumb and Dumberer? Looks like a DTV movie magically turned into an attempted summer blockbuster.
Lee: I've been thinking Master of Disguise, but with some of the recent
trailer placements so early and audience reactions, it's getting me to wonder.
Jeremy: Audiences know when they are getting the imitation. From trailers everyone seems to understand that both Carrey and Daniels are not in
it; I wouldn't be surprised to see that movie bomb entirely.
Jason: I watched the new trailer and wow is it dumb, and appears to be an un-watch-able 90 mins.
Lee: Opening night in front of Identity, it actually got a decent response in a very stupid sort of way.
Jason: It's not even funny though. Except for the mini bus they have.
Lee: You'd be surprised, people actually giggle at parts, even if it's light. Not a lot, but a decent quantity.
Jeremy: People recognize that Carrey is not in the movie; it's not like they're tricking anyone.
Jason: The Carrey look-a-like is sometimes dead on, but then breaks out
of character and is awkward. And the lines are god awful. Another 'Who wrote this?' script.
Lee: Eugene Levy - I don't know why he's in there - maybe studio contract.
Jeremy: The Carrey imitation is just plain retarded; there is no other way to put it - just awful; it looks like the worst movie of the summer followed probably by 2 Fast 2 Furious.
Jason: At first I thought it might do alright. But the trailer put that impression in serious doubt.
Lee: I've got a feeling it might do something like Halloween Resurrection but in more theaters. Good opening night, then collapses. I fear an audience coming out for it.
Jason: Once word gets out.
Jeremy: Both movies might draw some people to the theaters the first
weekend, but after that you'll see enormous declines in business.
Jason: Like bad one night stands, the audience is going to feel dirty
after the first weekend and never see it again.
Lee: I could see maybe $6 - 7 mil for a 1st day at most, but that would be the
only day it would see such a gross.
Jeremy: There has also been too much time between the real movie: Dumb and Dumber.
Jason: I didn't like the original.
Jeremy: The original is classic Carrey; you either laugh your ass off or think it is moronic.
Lee: I'm with Ebert on the original, and he's not someone I tend to agree with consistently.
Jason: They completely overdue the stupidity in the sequel. What'd Ebert say?
Lee: He liked it a lot. The thing with the new trailer is that they go overboard with everything that doesn't work this time around. Like the misspelled words; it
just isn't funny anymore. It wasn't really funny to begin with, but here it's just unnecessary.
Jason: And LOTR parody? It just doesn't fit.
Lee: Yeah, at Identity people were getting excited when that theme loaded. New Line probably knows they need Two Towers to get attention, and being the same studio they can do whatever they want.
Jeremy: I heard tons of reactions to the trailer such as "Why make a
sequel without Carrey - it must suck if he is not in it."
Jason: It was a lot cheaper ($30 million budget).
Jeremy: This seems to be the general consensus among a lot of people I know.
Lee: I'll be honest, I didn't think the teaser was bad. But here it just really reflects all my worst fears coming to life.
Jeremy: I can't see it making over $15 million.
Jason: That's rough.
Jeremy: Not rough at all, look at the first one, it wasn't insanely popular. This movie is just trying hard to ride on the coattails of a seven year old movie that made over $100 million.
Lee: It could make back the budget, but it may not do much over.
Jeremy: So it might be relatively successful with such a cheap budget.
Lee: I see a good opening with practically no legs. A reasonable to good opening, I guess. They're actually sort of doing what Paramount did with Wayne's World. First movie that a lot of people liked, then they go for a younger
crowd with some stupidity with a sequel. If American Pie 2 had come out in 2009, I don't know that it would make $40 million in debut. Same case could be said for Dumber - people just may not care anymore.
Jason: If American Idol continues its great ratings, From Justin to Kelly could really take off. Homicide - probably $15 mil
Lee: It all starts with Real Cancun, if that works Justin to Kelly shouldn't be a problem. Homicide looks sort of unnatural in team-up, but I get a Showtime-like debut vibe from it.
Jason: Personally, I don't watch American Idol so I'd go with $5 mil if it wasn't for its sky high ratings. $17 I'd say for Rugrats, following a modest decline from the second.
Lee: Homicide's not as un-commercial as K-19. I don't have an opinion on Rugrats quite yet.