Lee's Movie Info - Summer Movie Predictions

Jason: Down with Love looks incredibly tacky. I don't know what they were thinking.
Lee: Down w/ Love is another example of mine where the trailer probably
says 75% of the movie, but the box office will partially come from that fact.
Jeremy: They are trying to capitalize off of Renee and her Oscar nomination.
Lee: It's a crowd pleaser w/ a duo people like, and people will show.
Jason: It's like a 1960s knockoff of the Moulin Rouge style.
Lee: I think the jazzy tune of the trailer will help, with Chicago in
comparison.
Jason: I can just imagine them breaking out in song and dance.
Jeremy: It's decent counter programming, but they forgot that no one is going to see anything else but the Matrix and X2 that weekend.
Jason: A decent try, though. Somewhat like Unfaithful last year.
Jeremy: It could do about $10 million.
Jason: I have no interest in seeing it.
Lee: I don't think Matrix and X2 are going to be good comparisons for Down w/ Love. You're going after the feel-good audience, which is not the same.
Jeremy: Some of that will be people sneaking into The Matrix.
Jason: Some middle aged woman would probably go to Down with Love over
Matrix.
Jeremy: Of course they are not comparable, it's just that the appeal
for both films is so large I doubt anyone will seriously consider Down with Love as their first film choice that weekend.
Lee: The thing with Down w/ Love is that adults can go to it with the
assurance that a 2 hour line probably won't be involved.
Jason: It will definitely have an audience.
Lee: it's like the About a Boy counter programming.
Jason: That's the only romance until Alex and Emma.
Jeremy: Possibly, although Reloaded is trying hard to plat up the romance factor in the trailers.
Jason: Nah, that won't cut it with Down with Love fans. Living in a dingy rebel hideout and plugging your head into an outlet is not romantic.
Jeremy: How many fans is that? All three of them.
Lee: The romance in Reloaded is going to be for guys, probably, not
girls. They've been trying to up the sex footage in the clips.
Jeremy: This is a generic comedy that maybe on any given normal weekend
might do at most $15 or 16 million, but it's not a normal weekend at all.
Lee: Down w/ Love is going to be the cute romance flick that females are
going to want to flock to.
Jason: It will make up the loss on the weekend during the weekdays. I can see it holding up well if they don't saturate the theater count.
Lee: I'd say $13/14 for Down w/ Love.
Jeremy:: Let's face it, how will this get a decent screen count when the Matrix and X2 will be gobbling up all the multiplexes?
Jason: Next weekend looks even more crowded.
Jeremy: Not likely, $12 million at the most.
Lee: X2 won't be anywhere near as busy when Matrix comes out. Screens
may have dropped already. At least, those theaters w/ more than one screen

May 23 May 24 - 26 2002 Weekend
Bruce Almighty $38.2M The In-Laws $18.2M

Jason: Bruce Almighty looks like a definite hit.
Jeremy: That's always packed Memorial weekend.
Jason: It will be crazy that weekend. You've got every genre covered.
Lee: Bruce Almighty's another case where I just can't imagine that not
doing explosive figures.
Jeremy: Still, X2 should still have at least 3,200 theaters when the
Matrix arrives and the weekend after.
Jason: Is In-Laws still set for that weekend also?
Lee: I think In-Laws will find a reasonable crowd, but nothing special.
Bruce looks like the comedy everyone will want to see.
Jeremy: No, in-laws is another Michael Douglas flop. Bruce Almighty has the comedy covered that weekend.
Lee: In-Laws is a much easier sell than Runs in the Family, even though
that's not saying much. In Laws kind of looks like the movie people may look at in question and wonder if it'll be good, and only so many will actually go. I get a Miss Congeniality vibe, but I don't expect it to hold up as well.
Jason: That's poor placement; why put another comedy on that weekend?
Lee: Bruce Almighty looks guaranteed for $50+ 3-day to me.
Jeremy: I was thinking that too, but Carrey's stock has fallen recently.
Lee: I think everyone still loves Carrey. This is like the ideal casting.
Jason: I'd say $40 million would be more reasonable.
Jeremy: Yeah, $40 million seems right in such a crowded marketplace.
Jason: Well, supposedly, the marketplace makes room if there is really
enough demand. But I don't see that happening for Bruce's $50 million.

May 30 May 31 2002 Weekend
Finding Nemo $47.3M The Italian Job $21.4M Wrong Turn $12.2M

Jason: Weekend after belongs to Finding Nemo, first big kid's movie in a long time and the computer animation looks spectacular.
Lee: Nemo looks like a little stronger than Lilo.
Jeremy: $55 million for Nemo.
Lee: I'd say $45 range.
Jeremy: This is one the kid's movie every kid wants to see.
Lee: It doesn't have the Monsters, Inc. glare, but it's still big.
Jason: Agreed, it's no Monsters or Toy Story.
Lee: John Goodman and Billy Crystal were also really good candidates. This has got Albert Brooks, who isn't as animated, even though voices don't always matter.
Jeremy: The summer release will help it out since by May 30 lots of
kids are close to being down with school.
Jason: And there is nothing else opening that weekend.
Lee: I think Lilo had more going for it w/ release dates; it was the
last day of school and the only thing to do that afternoon. But Nemo has an
amusing trailer for its crowd.
Jeremy: Voices matter only marginally except in the case of Shrek where
it had such a huge cast of popular actors and actresses.
Jason: Monsters looked better than fish.
Jeremy: Look at titan A.E. - that had some famous actors voicing the characters and that went bombs away.
Lee: Well, Shrek was also DreamWorks, which isn't Disney when it comes
to star-power. But Titan A.E. had a bland story in the ads.
Jason: And was aimed at older kids like Atlantis, destined to fail there. Their animation counter is Sinbad, which looks like a pretty decent bomb.
Jeremy: I haven't seen much for Sinbad except that Brad Pitt is the voice of Sinbad.
Jason: Great, but kids aren't going to care.
Lee: I don't know anything about it.
Jeremy: That's what I was saying before - kids could careless about the voices.
Lee: Who really is eager to hear Pitt's voice. Middle aged females will
flock to a movie to physically see him, but I don't know what voice will do.
Jeremy: Adults care a little bit though, maybe not enough to entice them to go see the movie for that sole reason.
Jason: Have you seen the Wrong Turn synopsis?
Jeremy: No, I haven't.
Jason: A carload of six teens find themselves trapped in the woods of
West Virginia, hunted down by "cannibalistic mountain men grossly disfigured
through generations of in-breeding."
Jason: How much did that screenplay cost?
Jeremy: Where did this movie come from, Hell?
Lee: It looks like a Ravenous for younger people.
Jeremy: Sounds absolutely absurd, though. Oh yeah, and we all know how well that did. Ravenous, what a success!!!! (obviously sarcastic).
Jason: I think it just needed to be retuned.
Lee: Never saw it, but I heard it was better than it looked.
Jeremy: How much did that make first weekend, less than 3 million?
Lee: It averaged like $1300 a screen or something, which is really, really, poor.
Jeremy: Yeah, cannibalistic films usually aren't too successful unless Anthony Hopkins stars in them.
Lee: Paramount's been advertising Italian Job well, but I don't know if they can get it to fly too high.
Jason: I don't think so either.
Jeremy: I have enjoyed the previews for Italian job.
Lee: It's got a good cast, but Norton looks out of place and it comes off like familiar territory in a not so great way.
Jeremy: Looks like it could achieve a solid Borne Identity grosses.
Jason: No way, try a fraction of that. Bourne made $120 million in total.
Lee: I'd be surprised if they didn't get away with a $16 debut, but reaching
into $20's I just don't see happening yet.
Jeremy: Norton wanted to drop out of the film from the get go.
Lee: Paramount forced him into it.
Jason: Italian Job isn't going to break $70 in the long run.
Jeremy: I think you are really under-estimating it.
Lee: From the trailer it doesn't look like Norton wants to be there, either. His performance is really limited. It's got ideal casting to bring in truck loads of middle aged moviegoers, but I think the subject matter needs to be stronger. It looks like The Score without brains. Mark Wahlberg and Norton alone are good with both genders, let alone Theron for females and Seth Green. But I think it would have a lot more potential with an altered story. Donald Sutherland doesn't quite have the same effect as Kiefer here.