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Early Oscar Favorites (Directors) - The Movies

by E. Charl Hattingh

This is the second edition in my continuing analysis of this year's upcoming
Academy Awards. This week I will take a look at the Best Director category and discuss who I think are the front-runners and who I think the Academy might overlook (and since the nominations aren't out as of yet I will also predict what the five nominations will be for Best Director).

Best Director

Battle #2:
Robert Altman (Gosford Park) vs. Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind)

My guess is that most people don't even know who Robert Altman is. But in the inner circles of the movie industry, he is known as one of the greats. And if you look at some of the movies that he's directed you can understand. The classics include MASH and Nashville, as well as the Hollywood satire, The Player (which I highly recommend to anyone that is really into movies and the whole business behind it). His most recent movie was a disappointment (Dr. T & The Women). At first glance, the category seems wide open, but if you look at what Altman has won so far this year you can understand why he is really the only front-runner. He has already won four Best Director awards for his work on the comedy/murder mystery, Gosford Park (American Film Institute, Golden Globes, National Society Of Film Critics and New York Film Critics Circle). I, myself, have not seen Gosford Park, although I will probably see it on video. I have enjoyed some of his movies, in particular, The Player and Short Cuts. But I don't know the last time he really had a hit movie. The majority of moviegoers don't really see his movies. The only thing that would stand in the way of him winning the Oscar for Best Director would be that the movie most likely will not get nominated for Best Picture. Still, it has happened quite often that the director or writer of a movie will get awarded, but not the movie itself (it recently happened for Spielberg for directing Saving Private Ryan and The Coen Brothers for writing Fargo). And Altman is nearing the end of his film career and the Academy loves to hand out awards that actually reward a person's entire career.

A Beautiful Mind has received the greatest buzz out of all movies that will be nominated, and it has a very good chance of winning (or having the "award going to it"). And since both Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly are sure to be nominated, the Academy might as well bring along Ron Howard for the party. Okay, they're not merely going to "bring him along." He has been nominated several times this year and has won once (Broadcast Film Critics Association) in the smaller awards. But keep in mind that Mind has only recently picked up speed as a top contender. Howard might have had a few more nominations and wins if it weren't for the late surge of interest in the movie. Plus, the academy would love to recognize someone that has been around for a long time and all of the sudden directs an astounding movie. The bottom line is that if the movie wins awards early and consistently, Howard stands a very good chance of winning.

Sorry, but now it's time to push for my choice for Best Director...PETER JACKSON!!! If not Peter Jackson, how about...Peter Jackson. On the other hand, maybe the award should go to Peter Jackson Then there's also that New Zealander, Peter Jackson. And if any academy voters read this, you might want to consider Peter Jackson. You get the picture (and hopefully this picture and director gets the awards this year). Okay, it's a fantasy movie. There's monsters, huge Fight scenes and a lot of mumbo jumbo about the power of a ring. But face it people, the whole scope and grandeur of this movie sets a standard high above a bunch of stiff people with a murder on their hands or a man that has a good-looking brain. If I think about directing, I think about how much work goes into it. That's how I would rate how great a director is. Sure, some directors have a tough time with big headed movie stars that want to be pampered, but does that really compare to everything Jackson had to endure while directing Lord of the Rings?  Especially with this whole idea that these books would never be able to make the switch to the big screen. They said it couldn't be done. And here, out of the blue, comes this little known man that has directed movies like Dead/Alive (by far the goriest movie ever made), Heavenly Creatures and the Michael J. Fox horror/comedy, The Frighteners. How he ever persuaded New Line to fund the whole trilogy all at once is a mystery to me. But he surely convinced them and it has obviously paid off. Not only in box office receipts but also in the form of grand spectacle that will go down in history the same way that the Star Wars movies have. And while I'm on the subject of Star Wars, LOTR will probably suffer the same fate as that great movie and lose to something as forgettable as Annie Hall. And Jackson has not won one award as of yet, which makes it seem all the more impossible for me to jump up and down once they announce the award for Best Director. Vote Peter Jackson.

Other directors that stand a good chance of at least getting nominated:
Baz Luhrman - Moulin Rouge is like A Beautiful Mind in that it has received a huge push as of late. It will probably be strong enough to get Luhrman a well deserved nomination, but the chances of winning are slim (by the way, this is another movie that I think would be much harder to direct than either Mind or Gosford Park).

David Lynch - Just as his movie Mulholland Drive has won some awards already, so has Lynch. He has already won two awards (Boston Society Of Film Critics and Los Angeles Film Critics Association). Being nominated for previous Academy Awards gives Lynch all the more chance of at least getting nominated.

Ridley Scott - He was nominated last year for Gladiator (which won Best Picture) and also for Thelma & Louise. Although he has a very small chance of winning, he might get a nomination.

Christopher Nolan (Memento) and Todd Field (In the Bedroom) are both long shots to get nominated, much less win the award. On the other hand, Field might surprise us with a nomination since he has one award so far this year (National Board Of Review Of Motion Pictures).

The Five Directors I Believe Will Be Nominated:
- Robert Altman (Gosford Park)
- Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind)
- Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings:  The Fellowship of the Ring)
- Baz Luhrman (Moulin Rouge)
- David Lynch (Mulholland Drive)

Deserving, But Will Be Left Out:
- Christopher Nolan (Memento)

Who I Want To Win:
- Peter Jackson (LOTR)

And The Award Goes To:
- Robert Altman (Gosford Park)