Weekend Outlook: '28 Weeks Later'

28 Weeks Later is opening a week after Spider-Man 3 crunched the box office. After a record weekend debut of $151.1 million from 4,252 theaters, it?s no question that it?ll take a tent-pole to dislodge it from number one ? that tent-pole likely being Shrek 3 next weekend. Word of mouth on Spider-Man 3 is ultimately mixed, and its midweek daily performances are conveying a sense of disappointment amongst moviegoers nationwide.

28 Weeks Later, which is a sequel to 28 Days Later, could end up challenging Spidey?s second-Friday per-screen average with its scaled back release. The first installment, which was a psychological horror film set in the dreary London landscape, drew mixed reactions; some liked the quiet tone; some thought it was a bit too boring for a zombie flick. 28 Weeks Later seems like a cross of 12 Monkeys (as sci-fi) and Dawn of the Dead (as zombie horror fare). Horror fans, who probably viewed Spider-Man 3 as too light and cheeky, could give this sequel a chance even if they haven?t seen the original Days Later. It?s rated R, which seems to be a benefit. And even with little star-power involved, it could be an offbeat alternative. Still, 28 Weeks Later has the likelihood of retrieving mixed reactions like part one. Mixing sci-fi with horror seems to be a risky move since science fiction tends to play 50/50 with audiences.

Based on the trailer, the first half of 28 Weeks Later looks low-key, while the second half looks to deliver carnage. Moviegoers might give in and see what this thing has in store ? since zombie flicks are usually a fun time for many. It?s not quite Dawn of the Dead, but it doesn?t look that far behind. With 2,303 theaters, Fox Searchlight is clearly aware of its niche appeal; meaning, it isn?t for everyone. 28 Days Later debuted in just 1,260 theaters and opened to $10.1 million for a $7,986 average; its total cume was $35.0 million, and its DVD returns proved there was a cult following. As the only horror film that summer has to offer before Hostel II in June, 28 Weeks Later could pull in a strong opening of up to $20 million even if the rush factor drags it down.

Georgia Rule, which features Jane Fonda, Lindsay Lohan, and Felicity Huffman, should draw in a similar demographic that flocked to Under the Tuscan Sun. Older women should be the core audience, and Lohan should bring in some young teens as well. Georgia Rule hasn?t been displaying the same sense of slapstick comedy as portrayed in the ads for Fonda?s Monster-in-Law, which broke the $20 million barrier on opening weekend. Split between what seems to be a drama and a comedy, the tone might keep Georgia back somewhat. A debut of $13 or 14 million seems reasonable, which would put it right in line with Garry Marshall?s Pretty Woman (discounting inflation), as well as Must Love Dogs and The Wedding Date.

Delta Farce, starring ?Larry the Cable Guy? and D.J. Qualls, should find a small niche with its silly premise and is likely to come in between $6 and 7.5 million; close to Pauly Shore?s comedy, In the Army Now. Zach Braff?s romantic comedy, The Ex, could find its way to $2.5 - 4.5 million from 1,009 theaters.