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Weekend Outlook: Dec 8 - 10
By Lee Tistaert Published December 7, 2006
The Holiday will be an ideal chick flick for the usual female demographics, but romantic comedies in December rarely break out unless the premise is unique ? like What Women Want - which could keep this from hitting $20 million for the weekend.
Based on theater bookings in the LA area, Mel Gibson?s Apocalypto isn?t showing breakout potential, and The Holiday has the best bookings of the weekend. With 2,610 theaters, Holiday will be an ideal chick flick for the usual female demographics, but romantic comedies in December rarely break out unless the premise is unique ? like What Women Want ? which could keep this from hitting $20 million for the weekend (or like My Best Friend?s Wedding).
The movie is booked a little short of Failure to Launch ($24.4 million), and its per-screen average could compare to the first Bridget Jones?s Diary ($6,587). The Holiday is likely to have legs throughout Christmas like Something?s Gotta Give ($16.1 million debut, and $124.7 million total), but that also had an older cast which took longer to reach a broad audience ? whereas Holiday?s younger cast could make its general performance more frontloaded.
Blood Diamond?s theater bookings look closest to Kingdom of Heaven, Tears of the Sun, and The Black Dahlia ? its Fri average (in 1910 theaters) is likely to be between $1700 and 2300. This is by no means Last Samurai, but it should outdo Flags of Our Fathers which had a similar release. The film is likely to finish its run in the $45 - 60 million range, depending upon word of mouth.
Bookings for Apocalypto indicate a modest debut ? perhaps something along the lines of Dark Water ($9.9 million) and The Island ($12.4 million) despite the genre differences. Apocalypto has been one of the year?s biggest wildcards (especially after Mel Gibson?s anti-Semitic rant in June); it has no star-power, is subtitled, and very little has been revealed about its story other than it is extremely violent. Diehard action fans who can set aside Gibson?s remarks are likely to give it a chance, but the film has a lot going against it even though reviews are stronger so far than they were for The Passion.
And despite having the largest release, Unaccompanied Minors is looking to get lost in the marketplace; bookings are close to See Spot Run ($9.7 million), but the movie might need a huge boost on Saturday to achieve that. $8 - 10 million or so for the weekend looks to be its range, with decent legs likely.
The movie is booked a little short of Failure to Launch ($24.4 million), and its per-screen average could compare to the first Bridget Jones?s Diary ($6,587). The Holiday is likely to have legs throughout Christmas like Something?s Gotta Give ($16.1 million debut, and $124.7 million total), but that also had an older cast which took longer to reach a broad audience ? whereas Holiday?s younger cast could make its general performance more frontloaded.
Blood Diamond?s theater bookings look closest to Kingdom of Heaven, Tears of the Sun, and The Black Dahlia ? its Fri average (in 1910 theaters) is likely to be between $1700 and 2300. This is by no means Last Samurai, but it should outdo Flags of Our Fathers which had a similar release. The film is likely to finish its run in the $45 - 60 million range, depending upon word of mouth.
Bookings for Apocalypto indicate a modest debut ? perhaps something along the lines of Dark Water ($9.9 million) and The Island ($12.4 million) despite the genre differences. Apocalypto has been one of the year?s biggest wildcards (especially after Mel Gibson?s anti-Semitic rant in June); it has no star-power, is subtitled, and very little has been revealed about its story other than it is extremely violent. Diehard action fans who can set aside Gibson?s remarks are likely to give it a chance, but the film has a lot going against it even though reviews are stronger so far than they were for The Passion.
And despite having the largest release, Unaccompanied Minors is looking to get lost in the marketplace; bookings are close to See Spot Run ($9.7 million), but the movie might need a huge boost on Saturday to achieve that. $8 - 10 million or so for the weekend looks to be its range, with decent legs likely.
