'Borat' Early Sellouts Report

Based on early sellouts in the New York and Los Angeles area (which were posted Thursday afternoon), Borat could possibly be heading towards a Friday per-screen average of $6,000+ ($5.0 million could be the over/under mark).

Expectations for the weekend have ranged from $8 to 15 million ($9,000 - 18,000/screen); part of that depends on how many fans (of Sacha Baron Cohen's Da Ali Show) have not seen the movie already (through the many advance screenings this year); whether the movie jumps on Saturday if word of mouth kicks in; or if the movie drops on Saturday like both Jackass?s. There isn't a solid comparison to draw from considering its release in just 837 theaters, which has made its opening a wildcard to predict.

A $5.0 million gross on Friday would match Snakes on a Plane, but that would still be a hefty average of around $5,800 or so (about in line with Bruce Almighty and Austin Powers 2). That would also be in line with South Park's opening night figure ($4.9 million on Wednesday in 2,128 theaters), which was also a critical favorite after the show had become a cult sensation. South Park had also surprised people with the very positive reviews it received, and also involved politically incorrect humor as well (which is part of why it grossed just $52.0 million domestically after its strong five-day take of $23.0 million).

Theater booking arrangements in LA suggest anything from Bridget Jones 2 ($8.7 million) to Fahrenheit 9/11 ($24.1 million) business, but Borat will probably lack with the over-40 demographics at least for opening weekend. With 837 theaters, the major markets and college towns will make up a decent chunk of the movie's revenue (where Borat is likely to explode), and the early sellouts indicate potential pent-up demand.