Friday Box Office Analysis (10/13)
Grudge 2 poster
By Lee Tistaert     Published October 14, 2006
For the weekend, Grudge 2 could gross about $27.0 million, which is what Stranger Calls probably would?ve grossed if it hadn't opened on Super Bowl Sunday.
The Grudge 2 debuted on the same level as When a Stranger Calls on Friday, taking in $10.1 million from 3,211 theaters, averaging a strong $3,145/screen. Stranger Calls debuted earlier this year to $9.0 million thanks to teenage audiences, and grossed $9.8 million on Saturday. The movie?s three-day tally was $21.4 million, but it debuted over Super Bowl weekend and so its Sunday saw a horrendous drop (and kept it from reaching higher into the $20's). For the weekend, Grudge 2 could gross around $27.0 million, which is what Stranger Calls probably would?ve grossed if it hadn't opened on Super Bowl Sunday.

A lot was riding on whether Barry Levinson?s Man of the Year would sink or swim on Friday, and the Robin Williams feature ended up faring decently with $4.0 million. Playing in 2,516 theaters, the movie averaged $1,590 per-screen, and opened to the same level as Analyze That and What?s the Worst That Could Happen ? two adult comedies that were also trashed by critics. The movie was marketed as a cross between Good Morning Vietnam and Bulworth, but the movie is PG-13, and the ads played very broadly, lacking edgier comedy.

The movie still fared better than this year?s big political dud, American Dreamz ($1.2 million Friday), which was about the stupidity of the presidency, but political comedies/commentaries are generally harder sells, commercially (Good Morning Vietnam, Bulworth, and Wag the Dog all debuted in limited release before expanding). For the weekend, Man of the Year could near the figure of Chris Rock?s comedy, Head of State, which came in at $13.5 million. A three-day gross of $11 - 12 million could result depending on whether it receives much of a Saturday jump, but word of mouth could be shaky once moviegoers realize this isn't necessarily a comedy as advertised.

And lastly, John Cena?s action release, The Marine, opened lightly with $2.3 million in 2,545 theaters, which is on par with Assault on Precinct 13, which came in with $2.2 million. The movie?s audience is likely Cena?s wrestling fans as the majority, which could mean it may not receive much of a Saturday incline ? but like Jackass 2 (in general), one shouldn?t under-estimate how the movie might play in key areas. Marine might jump upwards of 30% on Saturday as a result, which puts the weekend at about $6.5 - 7.0 million.
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  • Grudge 2 Weekend Outlook
    October 12, 2006    In LA, the movie is booked similarly to When a Stranger Calls and Underworld: Evolution. -- Lee Tistaert