Friday Box Office Analysis (9/22)

Jackass 2 topped the original?s performance on Friday with $11.6 million from 3,059 theaters, averaging a strong $3,781/screen ? nearly identical to the per-screen intake of the first. The first Jackass opened in October of 2002 to $9.7 million from 2,507 theaters, and had averaged $3,873/screen. The earning for Jackass 2 ranks just below Knoxville?s Dukes of Hazzard, which opened to $12.6 million in August of 2004 on its way to a $30.7 million weekend.

Jackass 2 is likely to come in a little under that mark for three days; it doesn?t have 3,785 theaters (like Dukes) and it is likely to see a similar second-day drop. The first Jackass dropped 20% on Saturday while Dukes slipped 23%. Given that this is a sequel of bigger proportions (compared to the original), Jackass 2 could drop even more, but business in the south could help even things out (where Larry the Cable Guy, Tyler Perry?s movies, and the first Jackass played best). Jackass could take in roughly $27.0 million for the weekend, which would easily beat the $22.8 million figure of the original, and would also beat the $25.1 million debut of cult flick Kill Bill: Volume 2.

Jet Li?s Fearless performed to expectations on Friday, coming in with $3.5 million from 1,806 theaters for a pretty good $1,939 per-screen average. The pic, which is said to be Li?s last martial arts epic, opened on par with Unleashed, which took in $3.7 million. Considering the movie is largely riding off Li?s star-power (whereas Unleashed had a few stars), Fearless might not receive much of a spike on Friday, which could keep it from hitting $10 million for the weekend. The movie might not reach $2,000/screen on Saturday, and could come in just a little over $9 million.

Flyboys didn't have much going for it as a period piece with little star-power; in 2,033 theaters the movie grossed $1.8 million, averaging $876/screen. Though the figure beat The Great Raid (which also featured James Franco), the average is very weak and doesn?t stand up to the $1,295/screen take of Great Raid (from 819 theaters). Flyboys is an awkward sell, demographically, and also may not see much of a pickup on Saturday given the lack of a commercial cast. A weekend of around $5.0 million may result.

After getting trashed by critics, All the King?s Men was indeed DOA on Friday, delivering just $1.2 million from 1,514 theaters, averaging $819/screen. The opening is an embarrassment considering this was positioned to be the first big Oscar bait of the season, but was also foreseeable due to the poor pre-release buzz. King?s Men should be attracting a very serious, mature audience and could see a big boost on Saturday, which could also help with Sunday matinees. For the weekend, King?s Men could reach upwards of $4.3 million.

In limited release, The Science of Sleep performed solidly in 14 theaters, averaging $7,393 per-screen. The film, which was directed by Michel Gondry (Eternal Sunshine?), looks to be playing the strongest in unique markets; in West Hollywood on Friday, the film had sold out the night (about on par with Bad Education, which also debuted there and starred Gael Garcia Bernal). A weekend per-screen average of around $25,000 is likely, or roughly $350,000.

For those who are remotely curious, Feast had about 155 people at its midnight show in West Hollywood (it is only being shown once on Friday and Saturday night only). Feast is the result of the last Project Greenlight series (run by Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, and Chris Moore) and was only given a midnight release. Considering the intake was right around $1,500 (and it is an upscale theater), its weekend average should be considerably less than $3,000 in 140 venues.