Weekend Outlook: Lady & Clerks

Writer/director M. Night Shyamalan is on very shaky grounds following the terrible reception The Village received in 2004, and reviews indicate that Lady in the Water could be nothing but misery for him yet again; Disney (which produced Night?s previous films) passed on the script and Warner Bros. then stepped in with a $150 million budget ($70 of which was for marketing). Although it?s just set in a dingy apartment complex, Lady in the Water could end up being compared to Poseidon (also backed by WB), which also had a towering budget and a total lack of star-power to achieve blockbuster status (Lady, though, is largely riding off Shyamalan's credibility from Sixth Sense and Signs, and so its performance should be at least a notch higher).

Lady in the Water?s marketing setup isn?t much different: Paul Giamatti?s core audience (of older filmgoers) is not likely to show up in solid numbers (and they?re mostly in the limited release markets), leaving the 20 and 30-something crowds as the ones to please. That is the exact group that hated The Village ? and judging from the promotional material it seems that Lady has an artsy feel many people may not go for; this may be the one that determines whether Night can pull a decent opening weekend number on his next feature (to the public eye, it would be strike three after Unbreakable and The Village).

The trailer for Lady is a bit like What Lies Beneath (which opened in July of 2000), but that film had strong star-power for younger and older viewers and received solid word of mouth. A $30 million weekend seems to be the goal for Lady in the Water, which would be a far cry from the $51 million and $60 million debuts of Village and Signs, respectively. Shyamalan?s name could elevate Lady, but it could also end up in the low or high $20 million range.

Many years ago Kevin Smith insisted that his Jay & Silent Bob movie characters would never return to the big screen. That was after (Jay & Silent Bob) Strike Back in 2001; Kevin didn?t want to risk overstaying his welcome like Pauly Shore did in the early 90?s (after a series of duds like In the Army Now, Son-in-Law, and Jury Duty after Encino Man put him on the map), and Kevin knew there were people who didn?t even think he had made a good film yet (the original Clerks ? released in 1994 ? after all, is still sort of an underground classic).

That was until he put together the 10th Anniversary DVD for Clerks, when he fell in love with the characters all over again, and started writing again. Say what you will about Kevin and his movies, but the filmmaker has done an admirable job over the years at keeping his fans posted (via web at ViewAskew) on just about anything. In the past Smith has acknowledged that he is a great self-promoter (cynics have likely seen the features online trying to maintain calm that the ads for Clerks II ? which make it look even worse than Waiting ? do not fairly represent the tone of the movie), but Clerks II was never meant to be a commercial film.

The first Clerks made $3.2 million domestically (but cost $27,000 to make) and Smith?s movies have yet to make much more than $10 million in their first weekend. Even Dogma, which starred Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, opened to a mere $8.6 million, though it was only in 1,260 theaters. The film, like Jay & Silent Bob Strike Back ($11.0 million in 2,765 theaters), played best in big cities where the majority of Smith?s cult fans reside.

Had Clerks II been released limitedly at first, its opening weekend would probably look a lot more impressive (even though that could dampen its total sum). Cult writer/director Guy Ritchie?s follow-up to Lock, Stock, and 2 Smoking Barrels ? Snatch ? opened at 1 theater in LA for an exclusive run before its nationwide release and took in a solid $28,000. Snatch then opened to $8.0 million in 1,444 theaters, proving that Ritchie was not a commercial figure.

Should Kevin have a similar fan base, it would put Clerks II on par with Jersey Girl, which was a box office disappointment. $10 million is looking to be the over/under mark this weekend, as it is likely to come in between about $9.5 and $13.0 million (theater averages should be much higher in bigger cities, so there might be bias in crowd reports). The ultimate performance would be along the lines of Jackass, but advertising has been very flat (it is obvious that it was a field day getting the trailer down to a PG-13) and hasn?t had the kind of exuberance that made Jackass a surprise hit. For a production that cost just $5 million, though, it?s safe to say that just about any gross this weekend will do.