Weekend Outlook: The Break-Up

This weekend Vince Vaughn and Jennifer Aniston star in the doomed-relationship romantic comedy, The Break-Up, which should appeal warmly to adults but still may not have much more momentum than Along Came Polly, which starred Aniston and Vaughn?s buddy, Ben Stiller.

As likable as Vaughn has become over the years, the actor/comedian is not a lock for big openings yet (word of mouth seems to matter); Wedding Crashers, which grossed $209 million domestically, started out at $34 million, and that also had the advantage of an R-rating ensuring foul content. Dodgeball, the underdog surprise of summer 2004 which Vaughn starred in, opened to $30 million and had also managed to attract kids, teens, and young adults ? three demographics that are rarely swayed by the same material.

The Break-Up will likely attract those who showed up to Failure to Launch, which opened to $24.4 million, but the boost in star-power here should be able to push it up at least a notch in comparison. Break-Up?s one big weakness seems to lie in its lack of money moments in the ads, as much of the footage features Vaughn and Aniston bickering but it?s the performances that make it comedic, not the material itself; there isn't a standout joke or gag featured.

Along Came Polly?s ($27.7 million in 2,984 theaters) ads featured Ben Stiller?s lovable loser character falling victim to similar over-the-top slapstick situations that made him famous with There?s Something About Mary, which ended up being a fantastic marketing tool. Here, it?s clear that Vaughn is making the most out of the material, but the movie?s tone feels uneventful and breezy, which could keep it from hitting $30 million (and a debut like Bewitched is a long-shot possibility). Inside Man, which just barely cracked $30 million in three days, was backed by an effective visceral ad-campaign and had three top notch actors; though different genres, the difference in tone in the marketing for each is substantial (hence the Bewitched possibility).

However, given the breakout success of Wedding Crashers (which ended up attracting adults in the long run), Break-Up could sneak past Polly, but sources say that word of mouth may not be pleasant. Reviews for Break-Up are mostly harsh (expectedly so), but they were also negative for Along Came Polly and Failure to Launch, both of which earned almost $90 million domestically and were well-liked by audiences. There is also nothing else for the date crowd this weekend ? and after serious entries like Da Vinci Code and MI3, something light and cute should be in demand. A debut in the high $20?s or just over $30 million is looking likely.