Weekend Analysis (May 12 - 14)

Warner Bros.? tracking for Poseidon had been weak for quite some time, which wasn?t a big surprise when the Wolfgang Petersen action flick came in with just $7.0 million on Friday, averaging a boring $2,023 per-screen in 3,555 theaters. The pic?s weekend estimate sits at $20.3 million, a questionable figure even though it?s not as transparently desperate as Fox?s initial $20 million claim for Kingdom of Heaven (which turned out to be $19.7 million). The two epics played almost identically throughout the weekend frame and are big studio bombs ? the budget for Poseidon is estimated at $160 million, and the movie might not gross much more than $40 million with the intense competition in the coming weeks. A debut as such confirms the importance of A-list star-power for a disaster pic, and the movie had been solely relying on The Perfect Storm recognition in the marketing campaign and was just too similar.

In other news, Just My Luck saw dismal results with just $5.5 million in 2,541 theaters; Chris Pine?s profile on LMI has been huge for quite some time, which means there are quite a few admirers who didn?t follow through at the ticket booth. The Lindsay Lohan/Pine flick was from the director of How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days ($23.8 million), which was impossible to not be aware of if you watched the commercials. However, with the concentration on very run of the mill slapstick situations in the ads, the movie failed to catch on with its target audience of young girls. Though studios may not have realized this yet, even teens can be aware when a movie looks just downright stupid. The opening was a notch above the debut of Sleepover, which had come in with $4.2 million in 2,207 theaters, but didn?t surpass Aquamarine ($7.5 million).

Next weekend The Da Vinci Code will be taking away a solid chunk of business from Poseidon as well as Mission: Impossible 3 (which topped this weekend with $24.5 million), and Poseidon may see a catastrophic drop considering the poor debut to begin with. A two and a half hour running time will likely impact ticket sales a bit, but an opening of $60 ? 70 million is looking likely for the Ron Howard/Tom Hanks film, with an outside shot in the $50?s like The Bourne Supremacy. The Passion of the Christ had grossed $83.9 million in 3,043 theaters. Da Vinci Code?s early theater count estimate is 3,700+, and it could reach upwards of 4,000. Next weekend?s other new release, Over the Hedge, is looking to play somewhere in between the debuts of Robots ($36.0 million) and Madagascar ($47.2 million) in over 3,800 theaters.