Early Weekend Outlook (May 12 - 14)

Warner Bros. is hoping that the box office rebounds this week after the rather disappointing debut of Mission: Impossible 3 as they unload their epic disaster flick, Poseidon, in over 3,500 theaters. Playing in 4,054 theaters, MI3 took in $48 million last weekend, an underwhelming figure for one of the biggest theater platforms in history. The debut confirmed that Tom Cruise?s intense campaign of touring just about everywhere to promote the sequel didn?t pay off, as the public may finally be getting tired of the star?s relentless appearance in the media. This weekend may not be any different either: Poseidon, from veteran action director Wolfgang Petersen, has been tracking poorly according to reports, and could fall far behind his Troy and Perfect Storm entries.

Poseidon, which is a remake of the 1972 original, stars Josh Lucas, Kurt Russell, Emmy Rossum, and Richard Dreyfuss as passengers on board the doomed ship as a catastrophic wave leaves them struggling to survive. The surprising news is that the running time for the pic is a mere 97 minutes, which is awfully short compared to the usual 2-hour+ duration of disaster movies. Judging from the ads and the movie?s running time, it seems apparent that plot and characterization take back seat to a visual effects extravaganza ? the question is, will audiences bite?

The movie is in a tough position despite opening at the beginning of summer, as it doesn?t have an A-list actor headlining the picture, and star-power in general is made up of second-rate actors who probably got offered the feature so that Petersen and gang could save on the budget. And whereas Titanic and Perfect Storm had ample time to set up characters, the crash in Poseidon is said to happen in the first twenty minutes. Though that could be a good thing in terms of pacing, the movie is likely to be emotionally flat as a result.

Titanic looked much more emotionally alive in comparison and featured Leonardo DiCaprio at a time when he was really hot in the public eye. The feature also welcomed back filmmaker James Cameron, who was one of the biggest directors at the time (and he had been carrying along epic buzz about his decision to rebuild the Titanic from scratch for realism). The second trailer for Poseidon hints at a love story subplot like in Titanic, but footage mostly centers on the ship falling apart, which may not capture as much interest from female demographics as the studio hopes. The movie simply takes on the image of a B-movie disaster flick with a throwaway cast.

Last year at this time (a week ago) Fox unleashed their Ridley Scott/Orlando Bloom battlefield picture, Kingdom of Heaven, to less than impressive results. The film debuted to $19.6 million in 3,216 theaters for a $6,106 average, and topped off its run with just $47.4 million. That film also relied on the epic images in the ads to draw interest and barely hinted at a story in any of its footage, and the movie also lacked solid star-power.

One could say that Orlando Bloom has more appeal than Josh Lucas for a project like this, as Bloom?s role in Kingdom was not a far cry from his turns in the Lord of the Rings franchise. Josh Lucas starred in this year?s inspirational sports pic, Glory Road, which opened to $13.6 million in 2,222 theaters ? and even that had the advantage of being backed by Jerry Bruckheimer. Poseidon has director recognition, but Wolfgang Petersen?s previous blockbusters have had prominent stars headlining the vehicles ? from Harrison Ford in Air Force One, to Brad Pitt and Eric Bana in Troy (and studies showed that the money shot of the monstrous wave in Perfect Storm?s ads made the film rise to blockbuster status despite a low-maintenance cast). WB is obviously hoping that their shot of the wave capsizing the Poseidon will draw similar reactions as Storm?s ad-campaign, but the footage may seem a bit too familiar to moviegoers.

Troy and The Perfect Storm debuted to $46.9 million and $41.3 million, respectively, both in around 3,400 theaters. The early estimate for Poseidon is 3,500+ theaters, and it may reach 3,600 if not more. A debut in the low-to-mid $20 million range is looking likely, with outside potential of coming in under $20 as well as close to $30; this is one big wildcard. The budget for the Wolfgang Petersen epic is supposedly $140 million.