Early Weekend Outlook (May 5 - 7)

The summer season officially starts this weekend with Mission: Impossible 3 looking to be the biggest entry of the series thus far. Whether you like or hate Tom Cruise, there?s no denying that his persistent media blitz in the last year has kept his name as a hot conversation piece ? ranging from his infamous romance with Katie Holmes to his scientology rant. It?s hard to avoid gossip surrounding his personal life, and the classic saying that there?s no such thing as bad publicity may prove itself once again (as with War of the Worlds).

Established TV director J.J. Abrams (Felicity, Alias, and Lost) is behind the new Mission: Impossible entry, and Cruise and Abrams have done a great job at diversifying the cast lineup. Playing the villain this time around is serious character actor Philip Seymour Hoffman, who starred with Cruise in Magnolia, and is hot off his Oscar win for Capote (which grossed a very impressive $28.4 million); and for what would normally be considered a classic paycheck move here, Hoffman is actually convincing in the ads (and it is one of the few times in his career when he hasn?t portrayed a weirdo). It may be surprising news to some that Kenneth Branagh was originally set to play Hoffman?s role, which clearly implies that they were looking to up the mature talent from the previous films. Also involved is Laurence Fishburne from Matrix fame and the surprise casting of Keri Russell (who had worked with Abrams on Felicity).

The first Mission: Impossible opened in summer of 1996 and cumulated $181.0 million domestically and $422 million worldwide; the sequel opened in May of 2000 to $70.8 million over five days in 3,653 theaters, and went to gross $215.4 million domestically and $565.4 million worldwide. It?s pretty safe to say that with at least 300 more theaters and a sequel that is supposed to deliver more action than the first two movies combined, that MI:3 is not likely to disappoint. The entry is looking to compete with the comic book sequel X3 throughout the summer, although early reports indicate that the Brett Ratner project should shoot ahead. Neither film, though, should have the epic potential that Pirates of the Caribbean may cast in July.

Mission: Impossible 3 could play similarly to War of the Worlds? 5-day figure of $77.1 million (in 3,908 theaters) even though that opened over Fourth of July weekend last year and was directed by Steven Spielberg. This is a familiar franchise with now greater talent involved in front of the screen and from behind; and though that may not matter to some, it should be a convincing element to more serious moviegoers (and perhaps to the older adults who might normally flock to a Spielberg film). A debut in the high-$60 million range seems to be the low region of prospects; and with the early estimate of at least 4,000 theaters, there is a chance of up to $80 million.

Analysis for Hoot and American Haunting will be coming up later this week?