Friday Box Office Analysis (4/28)

RV managed to beat the competition on Friday, coming in ahead of the controversial 9/11 picture, United 93, but didn?t gross much more than the teen pic, Stick It, which pulled surprisingly good business. The Robin Williams family comedy grossed a modest $4.7 million in its huge 3,639 theater platform, which clearly implies that the movie did not need a gigantic platform; Mission: Impossible 3 may not get much wider of a release next Friday and its opening day gross should be multiples of that figure. RV averaged just $1,289 per-screen, on par with the Tim Allen release, The Shaggy Dog, which had come in with $4.2 million in 3,501 theaters for a $1,186 average.

Saturday matinees should give RV a substantial boost in ticket sales. The Pink Panther had jumped 57% on Saturday while Shaggy Dog enjoyed an extremely healthy 74% boost. Considering that Disney is not backing the Barry Sonnenfeld release, a second day incline similar to Pink Panther is of higher likelihood, which should give RV a weekend take of $16 - 17 million.

Despite waves in the media and critics? praise, Universal didn?t see a robust turnout for the Paul Greengrass edgy reenactment of the terrorist takeover on 9/11. United 93 took in $3.7 million in 1,795 theaters, averaging a good but still underwhelming $2,061 per-screen. However, the performance is still a success considering the picture?s intense portrayal of the horrific event. The film is definitely not geared for everyone with its extremely accurate execution, as some will find the material too realistic and too horrifying to endure.

Considering the film is skewing towards many age groups, Saturday and Sunday could prove to be quite strong as compared to usual business, and it could end up receiving a second day jump of up to 55%. There is still the slight possibility that the picture will fall on Saturday given the pre-release hype, but United 93 is partly targeting older adults and seniors, who don?t often rush out on the first day. United could see a gross of as much as $13 million for the weekend, or closer to $11 if it was somewhat front-loaded. No official reports have been released as to how the picture has been received by general audiences, which will affect its legs in the coming weeks.

Disney?s underdog flick, Stick It, which revolves around female gymnastics, surprised at the box office on Friday by beating out United and coming in with $4.1 million in ticket sales. The movie opened in 2,039 theaters ? a modest amount ? and averaged a good $2,002 per-screen. The ad-campaign featured the tagline, ?from the writer of Bring It On,? which likely helped in its appeal, and having a pro like Jeff Bridges onboard probably helped diversify a bit. The movie might be front-loaded like Bring It On and Coyote Ugly, as Saturday could look like roughly $3.8 million followed by around $2.5 million on Sunday, which would give it $10 million for the weekend.

Lions Gate?s inspirational family drama, Akeelah and the Bee, failed to catch on with mainstream audiences right away, as the well-reviewed picture took in just $1.7 million in 2,195 theaters for a $779 average. What was originally an independent feature, the studio gained confidence in the project and decided to go nationwide with it immediately after great pre-release reactions. But with a cast that just includes Laurence Fishburne and Angela Bassett, and a story about the spelling bee, its marketability was in question since these films generally play better in the top markets. Saturday should see a nice gain to around $2.3 million, which might make way for a $5.5 weekend.