Early Weekend Outlook (April 28 - 30)

This weekend, three films might battle for the top position at the box office, and two of the new releases have breakout potential. Universal opens their much-buzzed 9/11 drama, United 93, from director Paul Greengrass, who was behind The Bourne Supremacy and Bloody Sunday. The studio is opting for a limited 1700+ theater platform in hopes of delivering a strong per-screen average and generating positive word of mouth on what is proclaimed to be a powerful film.

The first trailer for United 93 was shown with prints of Inside Man on its opening weekend, and it caused quite a stir of reactions; its depiction of the terrorist takeover on the doomed flight was a bit much for many moviegoers, especially in New York, causing Universal to rethink their ad-campaign. Within two weeks the studio had put together a more personal, emotional preview to replace the edgier ad, and this time the trailer included Greengrass himself explaining why he came aboard the project, and also featured clips of the loved ones of victims expressing their desire for these stories of courage to be heard; it was a drastic, effective turn in marketing.

The big question that Universal hopes to work in their favor is whether moviegoers are willing to go back in time once again and re-experience that unforgettable day. Filmmaker Michael Moore showed that it is indeed possible to bring America together by the masses for a remembrance with Fahrenheit 9/11, as the documentary debuted to a phenomenal $24.1 million in just 868 theaters, having averaged $27,559 per-screen (which translates to pure sellouts across the map). The media frenzy this time around is nowhere near as robust, but awareness is there, and United 93 should play best in the top markets ? most notably New York/Manhattan (as a result, business reported from certain areas on Friday may not resemble the national average).

One concern is that the feature reenacts the painful memories of the two planes hitting the Twin Towers; and in 2001, the media was blasted for having heavily exploited those horrific images. In those first few days following the crisis, millions of television viewers were advised by numerous sources not to watch the coverage too much after the persistent replay of disaster footage was causing relentless emotional distress for everyone. United 93 looks to bring back those raw emotions, as Greengrass is said to have given this picture an unflinching, honest portrait, which many people may not want to pursue. Many filmgoers might also be skeptical about what else they could possibly learn about the tragedy after all these years while others may take the opportunity to re-experience the day in an angle that wasn't presented in the media.

One huge advantage Fahrenheit 9/11 had was being hugely democratic in its appeal (as if that wasn?t an obvious). Those opposed to Bush?s efforts with the war showed up eagerly to blast him throughout the feature, and United 93 is a totally different picture in what it sets out to accomplish. Moore also had people coming out to theaters who didn?t even go to movies, and there is nothing that is portrayed in this film?s marketing that suggests a similar widespread reaction is considerable. As a result, there may not be a big rush-out effect in its first week, but a weekend figure in the mid teen range (like A Civil Action - $15.5 million: $8,415/screen in 1,802 theaters) is not out of the question either.

Universal is opting for a theater release reminiscent to that of Lions Gate?s platform for the controversial Crash, which opened in 1,864 theaters to $9.1 million, averaging $4,886/screen; however, the Paul Haggis feature went on to gross an impressive $54.6 million domestically. Word of mouth was definitely there for the racy LA-based drama, and judging from critics? reactions thus far, filmgoers who do take the chance with this are likely to spread the news.

On a name basis, Greengrass doesn?t have a reputation at the box office yet, as The Bourne Supremacy debuted to $52.5 million in summer, averaging $16,595/screen in 3,165 theaters after a very successful original (which he did not direct); his independent docu-drama, Bloody Sunday, opened to $29,000 in 2 theaters for a $14,710 average. Marketing has been utilizing his name for effect, even though the mention won?t mean much to most moviegoers.

The film should attract very serious filmgoers who were interested in 13 Days, and Universal?s The Constant Gardener and Primary Colors, which had opened to $9.8 million, $8.7 million, and $12.0 million, respectively, all having premiered in 2,000 theaters or less (13 Days being the biggest platform). A debut in that range looks likely for United 93, and a $50 million-range total like Crash will likely demand broader interest in the coming weeks.

The other new release that could go a number of ways this weekend is the Robin Williams family comedy, RV. The movie was directed by Barry Sonnenfeld, who has had a bumpy track record that includes the original Men in Black, MIB2, Wild Wild West, and Big Trouble. Though three of those four releases were hits at the box office with domestic sums north of $100 million, word of mouth on the second MIB, WWW, and Big Trouble was atrocious. However, given that the Sony release is more of an outright family outing than anything Sonnenfeld has attempted so far, the big question is whether his negative buzz in Hollywood will matter this time around.

A recent article in the Los Angeles Times stressed Sonnenfeld?s struggle of reviving his directing career, and RV is said to be the movie that defines who he is right now. As a family man, Sonnenfeld wanted to do a story about a dad who had to go all out to bring his detached family back together. RV follows Williams being that father figure who takes his wife and kids on a road trip which sends him into one chaotic situation after another, with plenty of slapstick in the mix. Kids are the target audience for this, and RV?s huge 3,639 theater count implies that Sony is confident (or desperate for money).

The platform is very similar to Lindsay Lohan's Herbie: Fully Loaded, which had opened to $12.7 million in 3,521 theaters for a rather slow $3,610 average ? and is also a notch above the Tim Allen Disney release, The Shaggy Dog, which grossed $16.3 million in 3,501 theaters for a pretty decent $4,658 average. Considering Tim Allen had been riding off the success of Disney?s Santa Clause franchise (and he has another sequel coming up this year), his name was a sell, and it?s not quite clear what kind of pull Robin Williams will have to children. His 1999 family drama, Bicentennial Man, was an extremely awkward sell, taking in $8.2 million in 2,518 theaters for a $3,270 average.

However, Patch Adams was a huge success with families, bringing in $25.3 million in three days and a whopping $135.0 million domestic total. But the comedy managed to bring in a rather vast demographic, especially with director Tom Shadyac on board, who was known for Ace Ventura, The Nutty Professor remake, and Liar Liar. Williams fell substantially with Danny DeVito?s Death to Smoochy dark comedy in 2002, but dark comedies - especially from DeVito - tend to be terribly hard sells. Smoochy had opened to $4.3 million in 2,164 theaters for a poor $1,972 per-screen average.

RV?s run of silly situations should be at least a moderate success with its age group, but hitting $20 million might be hard considering the marketing campaign?s lack of money moments. Theater bookings in the Los Angeles area indicate a debut somewhere in the range of Racing Stripes ($13.9 million) and Eight Below ($20.2 million), with a long shot chance of coming in as low as Warner Bros.? See Spot Run ($9.7 million). Given that Disney is not backing RV, that could keep it from earning a debut like Eight Below, but one would think Williams? name to parents would mean more than Paul Walker. An opening in at least the mid-teen range looks plausible.

Lions Gate Films is taking a rather bold move in releasing their inspirational family drama, Akeelah and the Bee, in over 2,200 theaters. The picture takes on the image of an independent film just with studio confidence, as Bee Season had opened limitedly last year about a spelling bee and a family in crisis, and in 2002 the indie Spellbound ended up being a sleeper hit. Star-power here is limited, as the film is mostly riding on Laurence Fishburne; and considering it is questionable as to how much appeal its subject will be to a mainstream audience, Akeelah and the Bee is looking to heavily rely on word of mouth.

Critics and exhibitors have raved the film as emotionally rewarding, but as strange and unfortunate as it is, movies with great reviews don?t always open that well (audiences are not always looking for the same things as critics). Universal was on a hot path with the adult comedy/drama, About a Boy, which had critics raving prior to its release and the picture took in a mild $8.6 million in 1,207 theaters, going on to gross a just-decent $40.6 million domestically ? and that film even had solid star-power.

The problem with Akeelah is that kids are not likely to jump at the chance to see a movie about the spelling bee, and adults might not be either given the lack of marketable actors involved. Spellbound had only made $5.7 million domestically despite being a reasonably impressive figure for an independent release, and even Meryl Streep found it difficult bringing in a solid audience with Music of the Heart, which had debuted to $3.7 million for a $2,708 average.

An opening like that film is very possible for Akeelah. Lions Gate is not an established mainstream studio yet despite their recent success with teen and young adult audiences, as most of the distributor?s successes have been with limited release runs. Nicolas Cage saw mediocre results from LG?s Lord of War with $9.4 million and a $24.1 million total, and Crash was riding off controversy, its cast lineup, and the intellectual story structure. Lions Gate held sneak previews for Akeelah to build buzz, which is generally an encouraging sign, but the same approach was also applied to Something New. That film only opened to $4.9 million in 1,265 theaters; and despite having an ensemble cast, the actors involved were still not that bankable.

However, once in a while a film of this type will surprise on the upside; Drumline had opened remarkably well with $12.6 million in 1,836 theaters and was mostly riding on Nick Nannon. It is unknown as to how much crossover appeal Akeelah and the Bee will have, racially, and the film is not likely to attract a teen and young adult crowd. It is definitely a tough sell. An opening of $4 - 7 million should be a safe bet, with over $8 million looking to be a harder shot.