Early Weekend Outlook (April 21 - 23)
American Dreamz poster
By Lee Tistaert     Published April 18, 2006
(Paul) Weitz and Universal are hoping that fans of American Idol and those who ridicule it on a weekly basis will show up ? and they may very well ? but this is the kind of film that will likely play best in key cities.
Paul Weitz, the writer/director of American Pie, About a Boy, and In Good Company will be releasing his parody of American Idol, entitled American Dreamz, which stars Hugh Grant, Mandy Moore, Chris Klein, and Dennis Quaid. So far Universal has opted for a restrained theater platform for the political / sociological comedy, as the early estimate has the feature opening in about as many theaters as In Good Company (1,566) after it expanded from limited release. The official count will be in question, as the film could get up to around 2,000 theaters ? but with the initial estimate, the studio is very well aware that American Dreamz will not appeal to a large audience.

I saw the movie early this year with a wide demographic range, and the movie played just as well as Bringing Down the House had at its sneak preview. I had gotten the feeling that Universal might take a limited release route with this, just like with Good Company, but they?re taking a big risk. Weitz and Universal are hoping that fans of American Idol and those who ridicule it on a weekly basis will show up ? and they may very well ? but this is the kind of film that will likely play best in key cities (which is why I predicted a really limited platform). Its business elsewhere will largely depend on how effective the studio is at marketing this comedy. As is, its intellectual elements will help in the big cities, and advertising has been showing off the film?s broad comedy, which is a smart move in terms of hooking those looking for a breezy comedy.

The benefit that American Dreamz has is targeting more than just one audience group. Hugh Grant and the adult stars (the names mentioned above, and Willem Dafoe) should attract an at least decent adult following, but the feature should bring in a solid teen audience as well. Klein has not proven to be a draw, but Moore should have some pull, and Jennifer Coolidge has a built-in teenage girl audience with the Legally Blonde series, not to mention the huge teen and young adult fan base that has made American Idol a phenomenon.

The first American Pie debuted to $19.0 million in 2,507 theaters, averaging a solid $7,569/screen. In Good Company debuted in just 3 theaters to a huge $50,677 per-screen average, and went on to gross $14.2 million in its first weekend nationwide. Bigger stars and a more relevant subject matter (in terms of pop culture) could give Dreamz a solid boost over that entry. If put into the restrained 1,500 theater platform, American Dreamz may come in at about In Good Company?s gross, or possibly $17 - 18 million if the marketing has really worked, but a debut alike American Pie may depend on 2,000 theaters.
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