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Craig Younkin
Friday Box Office Analysis (4/14)
By Lee Tistaert Published April 15, 2006
Scary Movie 4 should be heading for a weekend take of roughly $43/44 million, which wouldn?t best the debut of part three at $48.1 million, but could still come in a slight notch above the original Scary Movie.
Scary Movie 4 came in with the biggest opening day gross for the franchise so far, as the comedy invaded 3,602 theaters and raked in $18.8 million on Friday, averaging a sizzling $5,220/screen. The debut just barely outshined part three, which grossed $18.6 million on its opening day for a $5,315 average in 3,502 theaters (however, Dimension Films might be fiddling with the Friday estimate to appear stronger in the early stages of the weekend).
Though just as robust as part three, 83% of kids and teens are out of school for Spring break (or had Good Friday off), which should ensure a decent second day drop-off. Saturday could look like $15.0 - 16.5 million, and a big drop on Sunday from Friday should be expected due to Easter. Given that, Scary Movie 4 should be heading for a weekend take of roughly $43/44 million, which wouldn?t best the debut of part three at $48.1 million, but could still come in a slight notch above the original Scary Movie, which opened to $42.3 million. Next Friday the sequel should be in for an enormous drop from opening day, as a decline of up to 75% is very possible.
Disney?s The Wild failed to catch on with family audiences, and it looking like a replica of Madagascar probably didn?t help (and some kids probably opted for SM4 instead). The movie took in $4.2 million in 2,854 theaters, and should see a Saturday drop of up to 20% considering the holiday weekend. That?s not very encouraging for its $10 million weekend prospects, as a gross of around $9 - 10 million is on the way (it might just barely scratch the surface of that mark).
In limited release, Lions Gate?s edgy pedophile thriller about a young man who takes home a 14-year-old girl (who turns the tables on him) lit up a strong figure in just two theaters (in LA and NY), grossing $24,000 for a $12,000 per-screen average. Though such a figure would normally lead to a $40 - 45,000 weekend average, the holiday might have inflated its Friday gross, and thus, a drop could be in store. A weekend average between the low and high-$30,000/screen range is likely.
Though just as robust as part three, 83% of kids and teens are out of school for Spring break (or had Good Friday off), which should ensure a decent second day drop-off. Saturday could look like $15.0 - 16.5 million, and a big drop on Sunday from Friday should be expected due to Easter. Given that, Scary Movie 4 should be heading for a weekend take of roughly $43/44 million, which wouldn?t best the debut of part three at $48.1 million, but could still come in a slight notch above the original Scary Movie, which opened to $42.3 million. Next Friday the sequel should be in for an enormous drop from opening day, as a decline of up to 75% is very possible.
Disney?s The Wild failed to catch on with family audiences, and it looking like a replica of Madagascar probably didn?t help (and some kids probably opted for SM4 instead). The movie took in $4.2 million in 2,854 theaters, and should see a Saturday drop of up to 20% considering the holiday weekend. That?s not very encouraging for its $10 million weekend prospects, as a gross of around $9 - 10 million is on the way (it might just barely scratch the surface of that mark).
In limited release, Lions Gate?s edgy pedophile thriller about a young man who takes home a 14-year-old girl (who turns the tables on him) lit up a strong figure in just two theaters (in LA and NY), grossing $24,000 for a $12,000 per-screen average. Though such a figure would normally lead to a $40 - 45,000 weekend average, the holiday might have inflated its Friday gross, and thus, a drop could be in store. A weekend average between the low and high-$30,000/screen range is likely.
'Scary Movie 4' Articles
- Weekend Outlook (April 14 - 16)
April 12, 2006 Many will scoff at this immortal franchise, but the demographic range for this is its biggest advantage. -- Lee Tistaert
