Weekend Outlook (April 14 - 16)

This weekend The Weinstein Company and Dimension Films hope to secure the largest box office opening of April with the release of their third comedy sequel, Scary Movie 4. The ad-campaign has been as ferocious as part three (which grossed $48.1 million), with the infamous Michael Jackson gags from last time having been replaced with Shaquille O'Neil and Dr. Phil?s bits in a spoof of Saw. Such jokes should appeal warmly to kids and younger teens, but with this entry looking desperate to spoof anything it can get its hands on (kind of like Date Movie), its durability in the coming weeks looks iffy, despite what could be a monster of a weekend.

Many will scoff at this immortal franchise that is now one step closer to Police Academy in its number of sequels, but the demographic range for this is its biggest advantage. Kids, teens, and young adults should be out in full force for the silliness and slapstick at stake (three groups who usually don?t see the same movies), and Good Friday should provide a good boost. Schools will be off on Friday, which means that Scary Movie 4 bears a chance of hitting $20 million on its opening day alone (but it also depends how wide of a platform the movie receives). Scary Movie 3 had entered 3,503 theaters and took in $18.6 million on Friday for a $5,315 average.

In terms of theater bookings in the Los Angeles area, comparisons range from Fantastic Four ($56.1 million) to xXx ($44.5 million), Anger Management ($42.2 million), and Daredevil ($40.3 million). xXx had dropped to $15.2 million on Saturday from its $17.3 million opening day in August, and with Good Friday, Scary Movie 4 could follow a similar path. A weekend debut in the mid-$40 million range is looking likely, with an outside shot at $50 million.

Disney is also releasing The Wild this weekend, which many are attacking as a blatant rip-off of DreamWorks? Madagascar from last summer. That family film took in $47.2 million in 4,131 theaters, averaging $11,431/screen, but the caliber of the voice talent here is nowhere near in comparison. Sometimes it doesn?t matter what stars are involved in animated adventures; the first Ice Age had Ray Romano, but the casting of John Liguizamo and Denis Leary did not seem ideal on a marketing front ? the movie for the most part lived off its memorable ad-campaign featuring the scene-stealing squirrel, Scrat.

Ads for The Wild are not memorable, and the look of it and the story just feel as if it was all copied and pasted from Madagascar. Kids should be the primary audience, whereas Madagascar and Shrek had managed to attract somewhat of a wide range, thanks in part to the voice talent. Friday?s gross will be in question due to the holiday since the earning could be bigger than it normally would, and that could dampen the rest of the weekend frame. A three-day gross in the low-$10 million range is possible, but Good Friday could push it up closer to $15 million depending on how much of an impact the holiday makes.
(* See added note at bottom.)

On a limited release front, Lions Gate unleashes their edgy pedophilia thriller, Hard Candy, in two theaters. The film is getting exactly the same weekend platform that Focus Features put in place for their film noir mystery, Brick, two weeks ago (which averaged $41,787 in 2 theaters). One of the two theaters (in LA) charges $14 dollars for every show, which should ensure a stronger per-screen average than it normally would take in (Brick grossed more in LA than in NY for this reason). In terms of the film?s dark tone and unsettling ad-campaign, One Hour Photo could prove to be a solid comparison, which had averaged $45,931/screen in 9 theaters. Hard Candy lacks a big name like Robin Williams, but it should be a popular vote amongst film buffs in the top markets who have a strong stomach.

Kinky Boots and The Notorious Bettie Page also open in limited release (in 9 and 20 theaters, respectively). Kinky Boots should be a harder sell at first considering its cross-dressing theme, but does have a chance at capturing positive word of mouth a la Waking Ned Devine and The Full Monty, which were both indie sleepers. The film's legs could be stable, but audiences are not likely to catch on immediately. The film lacks star-power, as the only actor with a name is Chiwetel Ejiofor, whose credits include Serenity, Melinda and Melinda, and Dirty Pretty Things. Disney hosted sneak previews last weekend, which is an encouraging sign despite only 50% attendance on average, as the studio obviously has faith that many moviegoers will like the feature. A modest per-screen average (of $6 - 8,000) should be in store, but the movie could play better in San Francisco than its other markets (which could boost its weekend average).

The Notorious Bettie Page will be getting about twice as many theaters, which should dampen its overall average (since it will probably play much better in some cities over others). Gretchen Mol is not an established lead and HBO Films? ad-campaign seems to have started at the last second. Its story, which revolves around the 1940's and 50's modeling scene and sexually forbidden topics like bondage could be a hard sell, even with the ad-campaign?s quirky tone. The trailer seems to lack a punch in terms of money moments and selling points, which could put the film at a rather low figure for the amount of theaters it?s getting. Gretchen Mol was last seen in Neil LaBute?s The Shape of Things, which debuted in 40 theaters to a tame $4,331 average ($173,000 weekend). Bettie Page could be looking at a similar average in 20 theaters.

However, HBO did in fact team up with IFC Films on the project, and HBO had produced Maria Full of Grace and Elephant, while IFC has had Transamerica, Me and You and Everyone We Know, and Touching the Void. All of those films were a success on the limited release front, all having averaged between $15 and 20,000 over their opening weekend. But each of them only did have a handful of theaters. The Notorious Bettie Page could play fairly well in LA and NY (and a few other cities) and fairly poorly elsewhere.

(Update: Scary Movie 4: 3,602 theaters, The Wild 2,854)

** Added Note (Thurs, April 13): Theater bookings in the LA area for The Wild are not looking very promising. At one fairly reliable venue, the movie is getting one of the smallest auditoriums where Scary Movie 4, Inside Man, and The Benchwarmers all have two screens (and Wild is on 1). This is even worse than the booking for Valiant here, and is the same auditorium that In the Mix was booked in. Given this bit of information, it's hard for me to see this make much more than $10 this weekend. I don't think a $6 mil weekend will be in store a la Valiant, but this may come in lower than some expect (this would have to be a really screwed up booking to hit at least the teens). The only modest performer that has gotten this booking was Dumb Dumberer, which opened to $10.8 million, and had also dropped on Saturday.