Friday Box Office Analysis (3/23)

Spike Lee saw the biggest opening of his career on Friday with Inside Man, thanks in part to an A-list cast including Denzel Washington, Jodie Foster, and Clive Owen. The crime caper flick debuted in 2,817 theaters, about on par with The Interpreter, and managed to climb past the Nicole Kidman/Sean Penn entry with $9.7 million for a strong $3,440 per-screen average. In comparison, the Sydney Pollack film had earned $7.3 million and a $2,645 average last year. Inside Man also drew solid reviews from critics, which is a real benefit considering that many older demographics only flock to certain films.

Last year Jodie Foster?s thriller, Flightplan, took in $8.2 million for a $2,395 average, while Denzel?s Man on Fire brought in $7.3 million for a $2,460 average. It?s not a huge surprise that Inside Man would debut to such a number with the combination of those talents? pedigree; and though Clive Owen is yet to be a hot mainstream figure on his own, his Mike Nichols? drama, Closer, did pack it in when it launched into just 476 theaters (the film had grossed $7.7 million in three-days for a through-the-roof $16,194 per-screen average).

A solid Saturday increase of 30 - 40% should be in store for Inside Man, likely leaving the weekend with a $29 million gross.

Disney?s horror flick for video gamers, Stay Alive, saw surprisingly good numbers on Friday, as the feature took in $4.3 million in just 2,009 theaters, averaging $2,115/screen. With only 2,000 theaters, the feature shouldn?t go much over $10.0 million for the weekend, and the movie is likely to be gone next weekend; however, considering its budget is likely nothing, Disney should earn a decent profit (which means that more stupid horror movies are on the way).

The opening day tally for Stay Alive was similar to 13 Ghosts ($5.4 million - $1,935/screen), House on Haunted Hill ($5.4 million - $2,000/screen), and even the recent Hills Have Eyes ($5.6 million - $2,145 average), which had a bigger and slicker ad-campaign. Not much of a second day boost should be in order for Stay Alive, as it might gain maybe 15%, but that might even be optimistic (and a slight drop is equally possible). Expect a weekend take of nearly $12.0 million if it jumps on Saturday, or otherwise closer to $11.

Larry the Cable Guy is based on the Blue Collar Comedy tour, led by Jeff Foxworthy, Bill Engvall, Ron White, and the one himself, Larry. Lions Gate gave the persona his own movie, though they were probably very well aware that the feature would only play well in the south. Studio tracking suggested that this just ?might? be the ?white version? of Tyler Perry?s movies, which meant that the comedy would not do much for many areas (for example, a local booking in LA was in line with A Dirty Shame ? another unique demographic pull ? and had bombed there after a strong limited release debut elsewhere). Given the built-in fan base from Comedy Central?s series and the previous movie featuring all the characters, Larry the Cable Guy might drop on Saturday but is more likely to see a jump in the 30% range. A weekend take of $7 million is possible, but in the worst case scenario, as low as $5.5 could be on the way.