Weekend Analysis (3/17 - 3/19)

V for Vendetta posted a stronger weekend tally than expected thanks to St. Patrick?s Day having kept some moviegoers out of theaters on Friday. The DC Comics release jumped 16% on Saturday to $10.2 million, which is an unusual improvement for what is usually a front-loaded genre. Vendetta took in $26.1 million in 3,365 theaters, averaging a potent $7,767 per-screen, and beat out what seemed to be its closest comparison after Friday, Hellboy, which came in at $23.2 million. After seeing the film on Thursday night I had thought Vendetta would receive a Matrix Revolutions follow-through in ticket sales starting next Friday, but with this weekend gross, that now seems unlikely. Its Fri-Fri drop next week could look like 55 - 60% for a $12 - 13 million weekend, which could put it on track for a domestic total in the neighborhood of $60 million.

She?s the Man didn?t seem to benefit much from moviegoers making up for their time lost at the movies on Friday, as its weekend take came in at an expected $11.0 million in 2,623 theaters, on par with Amanda Bynes? What a Girl Wants entry. That feature had concluded its run with $36.0 million and She?s the Man should finish relevantly, and possibly closer to $40.

Thank You for Smoking, a satire on the tobacco industry featuring a talented ensemble cast, raked in an explosive $260,000 from just 5 theaters over the weekend for a sizzling $52,000 average. $14 dollar ticket prices at its premiere venue in Los Angeles (where all auditoriums are stadium seating and have leather seats and digital sound) probably helped deliver such a whopping figure, whereas New York prices (its other market) are about three dollars cheaper. Thank You for Smoking should enjoy a solid limited release run, but shouldn?t find much success upon expansion due to its intellectual stance.

The week?s other main limited release debut was Sydney Lumet?s court drama/comedy, Find Me Guilty, starring Vin Diesel. The feature crashed and burned in 439 theaters with a take of $628,000, averaging a miserable $1,431 per-screen. The film lacked a marketing campaign, and having its poster just show Diesel slouching in a chair with a depressed expression was probably not a good starting point (I don?t think the poster is that far off from Jiminy Glick in Lalawood in its ineffectiveness). The film?s title was also not a great selection, and the whole package seems like something you would stumble upon on Showtime late at night while channel surfing.

Next week comes the first mainstream flick of director Spike Lee?s career with Inside Man, a bank robbery thriller starring Denzel Washington, Jodie Foster, and Clive Owen. Based on early theater indications in the Los Angeles area, it is looking like the film should perform at least on the level of The Interpreter, which also boasted a strong cast and had a director with a pedigree.

The horror feast, Stay Alive, is looking to get lost in the marketplace and might find itself playing on the level of Alone in the Dark.

The only limited release entry that looks like it could earn a decent amount is Lonesome Jim, which was directed by Steve Buscemi and stars Casey Affleck and Liv Tyler. Backed by IFC Films, which generated a $19,395 per-screen average from Touching the Void and $15,401/screen from Me and You and Everyone We Know, Lonesome Jim might see a similar turnout. Buscemi?s debut feature, Tree?s Lounge, had grossed $47,000 in 2 theaters for a $23,665 average. House of D ($18,186/screen in 2 theaters), which was David Duchovny?s directorial debut, might also serve as a decent comparison.