Friday Box Office Analysis (3/10)
Failure to Launch poster
By Lee Tistaert     Published March 11, 2006
It seems the decision of casting Sarah Jessica Parker was as successful as putting Jennifer Aniston alongside Ben Stiller in Along Came Polly.
Matthew McConaughey and Sarah Jessica Parker pulled a surprise victory on Friday with their romantic comedy, Failure to Launch, as the delayed-maturity flick grossed $8.5 million, surpassing the $7.9 million take for How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days. The film played in 3,057 theaters, which is slightly more than the average genre release, and averaged a nice $2,794 per-screen, on par with the $2,691 average of How to Lose a Guy in 2,923 theaters.

It seems the decision of casting Jessica Parker was as successful as putting Jennifer Aniston alongside Ben Stiller in Along Came Polly, as that date flick had scored an $8.9 million Friday in 2,984 theaters and had averaged $2,975/screen. Though Parker?s Family Stone entry grossed just $4.0 million on opening day, Failure to Launch is the kind of easygoing, crowd-pleasing flick that her Sex and the City fan base likes (and putting two adorable stars side-by-side is probably not a bad thing either). Family Stone wasn?t an outright fun romantic comedy, and was the kind of holiday release that would take word of mouth to achieve sleeper hit status (and movies that debut in December don?t always start strongly ? the two weeks around Christmas can really help).

It?s doubtful that Failure to Launch will be front-loaded judging from the genre?s track record, and a Saturday jump to around $10.0 million is very possible ($9 - 10 is likely). For the weekend, the romantic comedy is set to score a take of roughly $25.0 million, which should overtake How to Lose a Guy?s $23.8 million figure, though should come short of Along Came Polly?s $27.7 million.

Fox Searchlight had a little trouble delivering strong mainstream numbers from their horror entry, The Hills Have Eyes, as it came in with an underwhelming $5.6 million. Booked in 2,620 theaters, the movie averaged $2,120/screen, and though the figure beat the overall earning of Searchlight?s horror feast, 28 Days Later ($3.4 million), the averages didn?t quite compare (the Danny Boyle entry averaged $2,701/screen in just 1,260 theaters).

The Hills Have Eyes is the kind of flick that could be very front-loaded (and it will probably be a like-it-or-hate-it affair), and it might play like Rob Zombie?s The Devil?s Rejects in its day-to-day declines. Saturday could look like $4.5 million or so, followed by a $3.5 million Sunday, which could give it a weekend take of around $14.0 million. The goal of delivering on the level of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Dawn of the Dead might have been better suited in the hands of another mainstream company (as Fox Searchlight is dominantly independent).

Tim Allen?s The Shaggy Dog didn?t quite have what family audiences were looking for on Friday, as the Disney release took in a mild $4.1 million for a $1,179 average in 3,501 theaters. Allen had success in the past with The Santa Clause franchise, as the sequel had come in with $7.5 million in 3,350 theaters for a $2,242 average, while Christmas with the Kranks debuted to $8.9 million on opening day. However, Saturday should be a real help, as its second day boost could be up to 75%, which should put it at a Saturday take of $7.0 million. Adding in the fact that Sunday should be bigger than Friday and Shaggy Dog is heading towards a weekend of roughly $16 - 17 million.
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