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Craig Younkin
Lee's Weekend Outlook (March 10 - 12)
By Lee Tistaert Published March 9, 2006
An opening in the low-$20 million range (or close to $20) would put Hills Have Eyes at a 28 Days Later per-screen average, but this is one of those flicks that could surprise {like Texas Chainsaw and Dawn of the Dead}.
With a story and tone that seems to be a cross of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Dawn of the Dead, Fox Searchlight will be trying for a strong mainstream debut with The Hills Have Eyes. Mostly known for producing independent films, the studio might be aiming to score a per-screen average on the level of their 28 Days Later entry, which opened to $10.1 million in just 1,260 theaters and averaged $7,985/screen. Texas Chainsaw benefited from a hot summer ad-campaign, and Dawn of the Dead had cult status roots that helped it climb to a debut of $26.7 million.
Trailers for The Hills Have Eyes started appearing before screenings of Hostel, which had debuted to $19.6 million, and the horror flick will be also trying to top the $21.6 million weekend opening of When a Stranger Calls (another trailer that premiered with Hostel). A cast of unknowns similar to Saw and Saw II, and Texas and Dawn could help in delivering sizzling results, as that recipe has seemed to give horror entries a more realistic angle for audiences. The fact that Fox Searchlight is more accustomed to limited release platforms might work against the movie, as well as with the bombardment of horror movies this year, but stories based in claustrophobic environments (like Saw and Stranger Calls) seem to be a hit (although, the catch with Hills is that it is generating horror in a daylight setting, which is an interesting move).
One could say that there are no real ?money shots? in the trailer, as Texas Chainsaw?s ads finished with the haunting sight of leather face slamming a door shut, while Dawn featured quick images of zombies ready to take over the mall from outside. The quick images in the ads for Hills seem to be a rip-off of Texas Chainsaw with disfigured characters about to harm the protagonists. The ?been there, done that? feeling could restrict the film from delivering on Texas and Dawn?s level, but the trailer does start off in a very stimulating matter, making this entry feel eventful. An opening in the low-$20 million range (or close to $20) would put Hills Have Eyes at a 28 Days Later per-screen average, but this is one of those flicks that could surprise like the two mentioned titles.
In the Los Angeles area, theater bookings are in line with 28 Days Later, as well as with Hide and Seek ($22.0 million) and The Others ($14.1 million in 1,678 theaters - $8,396/screen).
Disney is at it again this weekend, this time with Tim Allen being transformed into a dog (I would?ve loved to see the pitch for this story)?and a shaggy dog to be more precise. With the success of Paul Walker?s Eight Below last month coming in at $20.2 million in three days, all signs point to another solid debut, but how much of Tim Allen can audiences really take? Christmas with the Kranks proved to be a hit two Thanksgivings ago, with an earning of $21.6 million, but that family comedy had the help of supporting players adding in to the appeal (as well as the holiday in general). Allen?s Santa Clause 2 also opened to very nice $29.0 million for an $8,659 average in 3,350 theaters, but the sequel had a built-in audience from the original. The Shaggy Dog lacks recognizable supporting actors and is going to have to rely on the appeal of Tim Allen leaping over everything in scenes as a dog to create a tone of silly chaos for kids. A theatrical launch in over 3,000 theaters is a sign of confidence by Disney, and the haunting question is whether this is one of those movies that will top the box office ?because it?s Disney.? An opening in the mid-to-high teen range is a safe bet, but nearing $20 isn?t out of the question.
Movies like Failure to Launch just make you wonder if the producers went to Paramount and said, ?Look, it?s How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, just with Sarah Jessica Parker instead; she gave Fox $60 million with Family Stone, you made $100 million three years ago and you?re GOING to make a profit off of this ? what do you think?? The ad-campaign for the delayed-maturity comedy appears to be a few notches below that of How to Lose a Guy; and although it?s a concept that might normally have potential, ads don?t imply that the story was taken fully advantage of.
Matthew McConaughey has pigeonholed himself in the ?typical romantic comedy? genre like Diane Lane and John Cusack, and has a decent-enough fan following for this one to make a go. The Wedding Planner opened to $13.5 million five years ago when he was alongside Jennifer Lopez, and How to Lose a Guy delivered $23.8 million. Must Love Dogs ($12.9 million) managed to bring out a more dominant older crowd than the typical twenty-and-thirty-somethings, and seems to be the film Failure to Launch needs to break even with. Sarah Jessica Parker found success with Family Stone at a $12.5 million debut, and the movie had sleeper success (with help from the holidays).
How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days resembled the perfect date movie for girls and women alike, as it featured a story about ?the girlfriend from hell? (in a comedic standpoint) that just about anyone could identify with. Failure to Launch doesn?t play with any similar devices in the marketing, which could make it struggle to get over the $15 million mark. A debut between Must Love Dogs and Something?s Gotta Give ($16.1 million) could be in store.
In terms of theater bookings in the Los Angeles area, Failure to Launch has one booking that is right in line with Elizabethtown ($10.6 million) and Something?s Gotta Give, and another booking like Must Love Dogs and The Family Stone. The star wattage in Failure to Launch is evidently greater than in the Cameron Crowe picture, which could allow a slightly stronger debut.
Trailers for The Hills Have Eyes started appearing before screenings of Hostel, which had debuted to $19.6 million, and the horror flick will be also trying to top the $21.6 million weekend opening of When a Stranger Calls (another trailer that premiered with Hostel). A cast of unknowns similar to Saw and Saw II, and Texas and Dawn could help in delivering sizzling results, as that recipe has seemed to give horror entries a more realistic angle for audiences. The fact that Fox Searchlight is more accustomed to limited release platforms might work against the movie, as well as with the bombardment of horror movies this year, but stories based in claustrophobic environments (like Saw and Stranger Calls) seem to be a hit (although, the catch with Hills is that it is generating horror in a daylight setting, which is an interesting move).
One could say that there are no real ?money shots? in the trailer, as Texas Chainsaw?s ads finished with the haunting sight of leather face slamming a door shut, while Dawn featured quick images of zombies ready to take over the mall from outside. The quick images in the ads for Hills seem to be a rip-off of Texas Chainsaw with disfigured characters about to harm the protagonists. The ?been there, done that? feeling could restrict the film from delivering on Texas and Dawn?s level, but the trailer does start off in a very stimulating matter, making this entry feel eventful. An opening in the low-$20 million range (or close to $20) would put Hills Have Eyes at a 28 Days Later per-screen average, but this is one of those flicks that could surprise like the two mentioned titles.
In the Los Angeles area, theater bookings are in line with 28 Days Later, as well as with Hide and Seek ($22.0 million) and The Others ($14.1 million in 1,678 theaters - $8,396/screen).
Disney is at it again this weekend, this time with Tim Allen being transformed into a dog (I would?ve loved to see the pitch for this story)?and a shaggy dog to be more precise. With the success of Paul Walker?s Eight Below last month coming in at $20.2 million in three days, all signs point to another solid debut, but how much of Tim Allen can audiences really take? Christmas with the Kranks proved to be a hit two Thanksgivings ago, with an earning of $21.6 million, but that family comedy had the help of supporting players adding in to the appeal (as well as the holiday in general). Allen?s Santa Clause 2 also opened to very nice $29.0 million for an $8,659 average in 3,350 theaters, but the sequel had a built-in audience from the original. The Shaggy Dog lacks recognizable supporting actors and is going to have to rely on the appeal of Tim Allen leaping over everything in scenes as a dog to create a tone of silly chaos for kids. A theatrical launch in over 3,000 theaters is a sign of confidence by Disney, and the haunting question is whether this is one of those movies that will top the box office ?because it?s Disney.? An opening in the mid-to-high teen range is a safe bet, but nearing $20 isn?t out of the question.
Movies like Failure to Launch just make you wonder if the producers went to Paramount and said, ?Look, it?s How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, just with Sarah Jessica Parker instead; she gave Fox $60 million with Family Stone, you made $100 million three years ago and you?re GOING to make a profit off of this ? what do you think?? The ad-campaign for the delayed-maturity comedy appears to be a few notches below that of How to Lose a Guy; and although it?s a concept that might normally have potential, ads don?t imply that the story was taken fully advantage of.
Matthew McConaughey has pigeonholed himself in the ?typical romantic comedy? genre like Diane Lane and John Cusack, and has a decent-enough fan following for this one to make a go. The Wedding Planner opened to $13.5 million five years ago when he was alongside Jennifer Lopez, and How to Lose a Guy delivered $23.8 million. Must Love Dogs ($12.9 million) managed to bring out a more dominant older crowd than the typical twenty-and-thirty-somethings, and seems to be the film Failure to Launch needs to break even with. Sarah Jessica Parker found success with Family Stone at a $12.5 million debut, and the movie had sleeper success (with help from the holidays).
How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days resembled the perfect date movie for girls and women alike, as it featured a story about ?the girlfriend from hell? (in a comedic standpoint) that just about anyone could identify with. Failure to Launch doesn?t play with any similar devices in the marketing, which could make it struggle to get over the $15 million mark. A debut between Must Love Dogs and Something?s Gotta Give ($16.1 million) could be in store.
In terms of theater bookings in the Los Angeles area, Failure to Launch has one booking that is right in line with Elizabethtown ($10.6 million) and Something?s Gotta Give, and another booking like Must Love Dogs and The Family Stone. The star wattage in Failure to Launch is evidently greater than in the Cameron Crowe picture, which could allow a slightly stronger debut.
