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Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (March 3 - 5)
By Staff of LMI Published March 3, 2006
I think {16 Blocks} has a big enough edge over Hostage. That would be a huge disaster to under-perform the lousy job Miramax did marketing Hostage. I see {it} as Hostage + Mos Def - Miramax's inept distribution prior to its split with Disney.
Jason: The reviews for Block Party have been very positive, and along with the possibility of season 3 never being shown, all signs point to a big opening. It might have already covered its production budget.
Lee: It's hard for me to imagine this not having more appeal than Hustle & Flow. It's got all the ingredients to bring in the Barbershop crowd.
Jason: The only hesitation I had for not predicting a big opening is that it doesn't really look like a movie. It looks more like a TV special.
Lee: A Hustle & Flow opening would put it on par with Eternal Sunshine, which had limited appeal at first. Dave Chappelle has a huge built-in audience. 1200 theaters kind of dampens the chance of a Bridget Jones 2 potential surprise ? that only had 530 theaters.
Jason: There doesn't seem to be much question though that it will have the highest per-theater average in the top 10.
Lee: The only movie I am really questioning this week is Ultraviolet. Easiest comparisons are Aeon Flux, Resident Evil 1 and 2, The Transporter, and Domino. Every time I see ads for it, I'm reminded of the straight-to-DVD feeling Equilibrium had. And Milla Jovovich hasn't proven to be a star outside of the Resident Evil franchise. She might have just the same appeal as Keira Knightley in Domino. And both stories are equally minimalist. The ads don?t hint at a story at all; it?s just in-your-face sci-fi action.
Jason: I think Aeon Flux is a fair comparison, although that movie seemed to have a lot more advertising and early build up. I don't believe I saw much advertising for Ultraviolet before a month or two ago.
Lee: And Screen Gems has also been hitting online ads like a storm in the recent weeks, which is not a promising sign. Warner Bros. did that with Death to Smoochy and look what happened.
Jason: From some early theater reports, it looks like the movie was really awful. Even fans of Equilibrium were on the verge of walking out.
Lee: Equilibrium had an $1800 weekend average in 301 theaters.
Jason: $4.8 million seems a bit harsh though.
Lee: It has the same booking as Domino at one theater. But it's also playing at a Resident Evil 2 theater, and Aeon Flux, so that is why I'm in question.
Jason: The reviews might be awful, but I think it'll break $5 million.
Lee: Plus, if the movie gets a 65+% drop as it may very well get next Friday, it's harder to see it open at just $5. But the theater bookings here are most even with Domino. And I can't shake the Equilibrium vibe. I could see up to $9 or so.
Jason: I think you're underestimating 16 Blocks, given that Hostage opened to $10.2 million in March.
Lee: Richard Donner just came off of Timeline, which did $12 at Thanksgiving, and that was even helped by the holiday. Conspiracy Theory did $19 but had Mel Gibson and Julia Roberts. And I just don't think Bruce Willis as a rundown drunken cop is that much of a sell.
Jason:: Isn't that always his character?
Lee: Yeah but here it almost seems as if he has an unlikable edge. It's not exactly Die Hard.
Jason: You look at Hostage which opened around the same time last year with around 600 fewer theaters and no Mos Def, plus Miramax vs. Warner Brothers.
Lee: I don't think Mos Def is going to do that much for the movie.
Jason: I think it will. I'd say $16 ? 19.
Lee: I could see Hostage's averages, which would be $13 for the weekend, but I'm having a hard time seeing the $17/18 forecasts. Those would be on level with Exit Wounds. And the ad-campaign seemed to start at the last second too.
Jason: I think it has a big enough edge over Hostage. I'm pretty sure it won't open with just $11 -12 million. That would be a huge disaster to under-perform the lousy job Miramax did marketing Hostage.
Lee: Well Warner Bros. also did Ballistic, and that was $7.
Jason: Different cast, genre and release time. I see 16 Blocks as Hostage + Mos Def - Miramax's inept distribution prior to its split with Disney.
Lee: Aquamarine looks like Sleepover redux if you ask me. No-name cast, awkward story, not much of an ad-campaign. The bookings here are along the lines of My Boss's Daughter. But 2500 theaters is a slightly hopeful sign as compared to just 2200 or high 1000's.
Jason: Perhaps, I thought the fantasy element might distinguish it from the usual teen romantic comedy. For some reason, whenever I see the trailer, I think of Lady in the Water.
Lee: 2500 theaters may allow it to hit $7, but I could see as low as $5.5.
Jason: I was predicting $12 - 13, but the tracking was disappointing and I've lowered my prediction to around $9. Sleepover was MGM and disappeared within 2 weeks.
Lee: It's hard for me to imagine this not having more appeal than Hustle & Flow. It's got all the ingredients to bring in the Barbershop crowd.
Jason: The only hesitation I had for not predicting a big opening is that it doesn't really look like a movie. It looks more like a TV special.
Lee: A Hustle & Flow opening would put it on par with Eternal Sunshine, which had limited appeal at first. Dave Chappelle has a huge built-in audience. 1200 theaters kind of dampens the chance of a Bridget Jones 2 potential surprise ? that only had 530 theaters.
Jason: There doesn't seem to be much question though that it will have the highest per-theater average in the top 10.
Lee: The only movie I am really questioning this week is Ultraviolet. Easiest comparisons are Aeon Flux, Resident Evil 1 and 2, The Transporter, and Domino. Every time I see ads for it, I'm reminded of the straight-to-DVD feeling Equilibrium had. And Milla Jovovich hasn't proven to be a star outside of the Resident Evil franchise. She might have just the same appeal as Keira Knightley in Domino. And both stories are equally minimalist. The ads don?t hint at a story at all; it?s just in-your-face sci-fi action.
Jason: I think Aeon Flux is a fair comparison, although that movie seemed to have a lot more advertising and early build up. I don't believe I saw much advertising for Ultraviolet before a month or two ago.
Lee: And Screen Gems has also been hitting online ads like a storm in the recent weeks, which is not a promising sign. Warner Bros. did that with Death to Smoochy and look what happened.
Jason: From some early theater reports, it looks like the movie was really awful. Even fans of Equilibrium were on the verge of walking out.
Lee: Equilibrium had an $1800 weekend average in 301 theaters.
Jason: $4.8 million seems a bit harsh though.
Lee: It has the same booking as Domino at one theater. But it's also playing at a Resident Evil 2 theater, and Aeon Flux, so that is why I'm in question.
Jason: The reviews might be awful, but I think it'll break $5 million.
Lee: Plus, if the movie gets a 65+% drop as it may very well get next Friday, it's harder to see it open at just $5. But the theater bookings here are most even with Domino. And I can't shake the Equilibrium vibe. I could see up to $9 or so.
Jason: I think you're underestimating 16 Blocks, given that Hostage opened to $10.2 million in March.
Lee: Richard Donner just came off of Timeline, which did $12 at Thanksgiving, and that was even helped by the holiday. Conspiracy Theory did $19 but had Mel Gibson and Julia Roberts. And I just don't think Bruce Willis as a rundown drunken cop is that much of a sell.
Jason:: Isn't that always his character?
Lee: Yeah but here it almost seems as if he has an unlikable edge. It's not exactly Die Hard.
Jason: You look at Hostage which opened around the same time last year with around 600 fewer theaters and no Mos Def, plus Miramax vs. Warner Brothers.
Lee: I don't think Mos Def is going to do that much for the movie.
Jason: I think it will. I'd say $16 ? 19.
Lee: I could see Hostage's averages, which would be $13 for the weekend, but I'm having a hard time seeing the $17/18 forecasts. Those would be on level with Exit Wounds. And the ad-campaign seemed to start at the last second too.
Jason: I think it has a big enough edge over Hostage. I'm pretty sure it won't open with just $11 -12 million. That would be a huge disaster to under-perform the lousy job Miramax did marketing Hostage.
Lee: Well Warner Bros. also did Ballistic, and that was $7.
Jason: Different cast, genre and release time. I see 16 Blocks as Hostage + Mos Def - Miramax's inept distribution prior to its split with Disney.
Lee: Aquamarine looks like Sleepover redux if you ask me. No-name cast, awkward story, not much of an ad-campaign. The bookings here are along the lines of My Boss's Daughter. But 2500 theaters is a slightly hopeful sign as compared to just 2200 or high 1000's.
Jason: Perhaps, I thought the fantasy element might distinguish it from the usual teen romantic comedy. For some reason, whenever I see the trailer, I think of Lady in the Water.
Lee: 2500 theaters may allow it to hit $7, but I could see as low as $5.5.
Jason: I was predicting $12 - 13, but the tracking was disappointing and I've lowered my prediction to around $9. Sleepover was MGM and disappeared within 2 weeks.
'16 Blocks' Articles
- Craig's 16 Blocks review D
February 28, 2006 16 Blocks is bottom of the barrel, a movie that is either too stupid, clich?d, or boring to waste time on. -- Craig Younkin
