Friday Box Office Analysis (2/17)

Fox?s romantic comedy spoof, Date Movie, performed exactly like American Pie on Friday, turning in $6.7 million in 2,896 theaters, averaging a solid $2,323 per-screen. In comparison, American Pie had debuted to $6.7 million for a $2,675 average. The figure is impressive considering the shortage of bankable stars, and the parody outperformed a similar spoof, Not Another Teen Movie, which had come in with $5.0 million and a $2,122 average. Like a lot of entries in this genre, reviews were not kind at all, but that has rarely affected their box office takes; and regardless of word of mouth, the holiday on Monday is likely to keep the show moving and limit the chance of an at-least 30% drop on Sunday from Friday?s business. Not Another Teen Movie had dropped 42% on Sunday from opening day, while American Pie opened in the summer and was only off 14% in that regard. For the three-day frame, Date Movie is looking to capture nearly $20.0 million, with a 4-day take of about $23.0 million - but Fox may not get the honor of having taken the weekend.

Disney saw decent results with Eight Below, as the picture took in $5.0 million in 3,066 theaters for a $1,616 average. The debut outshined that of Snow Dogs, which had grossed $4.3 million and $1,851/screen in 2,302 theaters. Disney can be a sneaky one with surprise performances, as Eight Below bears a chance of taking the weekend from Date Movie. The studio had pulled a similar move with Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, as well as with Vin Diesel?s The Pacifier having beat out the ensemble-cast comedy, Be Cool. The picture is in a very promising position considering the usual Saturday matinees and the fact that kids have Monday off from school ? which should lead to strong Sunday and Monday tallies. Saturday could look like $8.5 ? 9.0 million, with a roughly $7.0 million Sunday. That could give Eight Below a 3-day take of around $21.0 million, with a 4-day performance of $25 - 27 million.

Samuel L. Jackson and Julianne Moore saw lackluster results from their racial commentary, Freedomland, which came in with just $1.8 million in 2,361 theaters, averaging a poor $762/screen. The earning is just a notch above Jackson?s comedy, The Man, which had premiered last year to the tune of $1.3 million in 2,040 theaters for a $629 average. The drama is looking at a 3-day gross of about $6.0 million with a 4-day take of roughly $7.0 million.