Friday Box Office Analysis (2/10)

Final Destination 3 saw the biggest debut yet in the horror series, but depending on how front-loaded the movie is by Saturday, The Pink Panther bears a chance at taking the weekend. The sequel took in $7.4 million on Friday, which was up 30% from part two (at $5.6 million), and more than doubled the first entry?s opening day of $3.1 million. Final Destination 3 played in 2,880 theaters and averaged $2,569 per-screen; its average was close to that of Resident Evil: Apocalypse, which had grossed $9.2 million but a more relevant $2,811 average. The Resident Evil sequel had slipped 8% on its second day and ended up with $23.0 million for its three-day frame. The recent horror entries Hostel and When a Stranger Calls didn?t receive those kinds of second-day drops, but since this is a sequel and there might be a rush-out factor, a Saturday gross around $6.5 million (or nearly $7.0 million) could be in store. For the weekend, New Line will be hoping that Final Destination 3 can hit $20 million (and if they?re like Fox with Kingdom of Heaven, they might claim it hit that mark in the estimates). However, if Saturday does see close to a 10% drop, the horror flick might come in closer to $18 million (which should still be an improvement over the first sequel's $16.0 million earning).

Despite being delayed from last August (which is a doomsday period for many movies to begin with), MGM saw solid results from their Pink Panther remake and proved that Steve Martin has not been over-exposed after Cheaper by the Dozen 2. The slapstick comedy took in $5.9 million on Friday in a 3,477 theater platform released and earned an average of $1,697/screen. The movie was about on par with the debut of Shanghai Knights, another silly comedy aimed at families, which had grossed $6.2 million for a $2,244 average. The Pink Panther could see a Saturday boost of up to 45%, which would put its weekend take at nearly $20 million. Knights had come in with $19.6 million, which could end up being how close to the mark this remake comes.

Harrison Ford couldn?t quite rebound from the box office letdowns of K-19 and Random Hearts, as the thriller Firewall earned just $4.4 million on Friday for a tame $1,549 average. The movie played in 2,840 theaters, which was in sync with the platform for Schwarzenegger?s Collateral Damage (which had grossed $4.8 million on Fri and $15.1 million over the weekend), but it seems that Ford might have to wait for Indiana Jones 4 for his real box office vengeance. On a per-screen average front, Firewall played exactly like Bruce Willis? thriller, Hostage, which had taken in $3.2 million but $1,524/screen in 2,123 theaters. Saturday?s gross could be at about $5.0 million, which would put the weekend at $12.0 million (on par with K-19 and Random Hearts).

Curious George debuted in the softer end of producer Brian Grazer?s track record, as the animated family release pulled in $3.8 million for a $1,472 average in 2,565 theaters. Though not relevant in terms of genre, the debut was right on with Grazer?s Undercover Brother entry, which had grossed $3.7 million ? and within the genre, performed like Shark Boy and Lava Girl at $3.9 million in 2,655 theaters, and outperformed Return to Neverland (which had taken in $2.8 million). Curious George could see a big second day increase considering its family audience; however, Shark Boy only saw a 26% increase, and its Sunday gross was nearly identical to its opening day sales. George is animated, however, which could make the difference; Neverland had jumped 74% and its Sunday business was up 43% from opening day. For the weekend, the family tale could see a gross of around $12 million or $15 million (and bears a chance at eclipsing Firewall).