HSX's Oscar Nomination Predictions

Last Year's Oscar Winners Best Predictors Last Year Predict Oscars

Predicted Nominees
HSX's most likely to be nominated (as indicated by the implied odds of the option prices). Revised with the nominated movies are in bold:

Best Picture
Brokback Mountain (98.3%)
Crash (92.5%)
Capote (84.5%)
Good Night, and Good Luck (87.5%)
The Constant Gardener (80.1%)
A History of Violence (78.4%)
Walk the Line (54.1%)
Munich (50.7%)
Pride & Prejudice (17.3%)

Best Director
Ang Lee (99.2%)
George Clooney (88.8%)
Paul Haggis (82.0%)
Bennett Miller (62.0%)
Steven Spielberg (55.9%)
Woody Allen (42.9%)
Fernando Meirelles (30.0%)

Best Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (99.2%)
Joaquin Pheonix (96.6%)
Heath Ledger (94.0%)
David Strathairn (90.0%)
Terrence Howard (59.3%)
Russell Crowe (28.1%)
Ralph Fiennes (14.3%)

Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon (99.2%)
Felicity Huffman (98.3%)
Judi Dench (77.5%)
Charlize Theron (75.8%)
Keira Knightley (49.8%)
Ziyi Zhang (44.6%)
Joan Allen (22.1%)

Best Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti (93.1%)
George Clooney (91.4%)
Jake Gyllenhaal (86.2%)
Matt Dillon (77.5%)
Don Cheadle (56.7%)
William Hurt (38.5%)
Terrence Howard (29.0%)

Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz (94.0%)
Michelle Williams (90.5%)
Catherine Keener (73.2%)
Amy Adams (71.5%)
Maria Bello (54.1%)
Laura Linney (49.8%)
Scarlet Johansson (34.2%)
Frances McDormand (30.7%)