Friday Box Office Analysis (12/16)

King Kong opened at the softer end of expectations and proved that one?s past doesn?t ensure immediate box office gold. While industry expectations were that the big ape would come in with around $75 million for the entire five-day frame (considering it opened on Wednesday), others had the Peter Jackson epic grossing about that much just for the three-day frame (with a five-day figure in the $100 - 120 million range). With Oscar winner Jackson coming off the phenomenally successful Lord of the Rings trilogy, many felt that this was going to be another variation of a Lord of the Rings sequel to many fans. However, King Kong is playing like the first edition of LOTR, The Fellowship of the Ring; the two follow-ups had a lot going in their favor and were basically the new Star Wars experience that millions of people knew they?d love. Despite Kong?s pedigree, what?s missing is a story that hits close to home, emotionally, for millions of folks. And unlike most ?just plain fun? blockbusters, the film runs at an epic running time of three hours and fifteen minutes ? that?s quite a sitting time if you?re just looking for some easy fun at the movies.

Kong turned in $14.4 million on Friday in 3,567 theaters, an under-whelming figure for many people wanting an exciting weekend at the box office (The Chronicles of Narnia, for example, turned in $23.0 million last Friday, a figure that Kong may not achieve on any single day). The film started off with an eye opening $10.0 million Wednesday gross that had gossip boards in full frantic: how could Kong not do at least $20 million in its first day? The film is playing like the first installment of The Mummy, which had pulled in $15.0 million on its first day for a $4,664 average in 3,209 theaters. Brendan Fraser has never exactly been box office gold, as it was the concept and marketing campaign that allowed The Mummy to be a big hit. Likewise with King Kong, the main star, Jack Black, is not coming from a hot past, and this may be his time to follow in the footsteps of Fraser with a movie that is finally earning some big bucks. Before the weekend, I had been looking at Kong in the Mummy Returns sense considering that Peter Jackson is known to moviegoers across the world, even though Black has yet to develop a big audience.

With a $200 million budget and a five-day weekend of $60 - 70 million on the way, movie fans are going to be proclaiming King Kong as the year?s biggest box office disappointment. However, with Christmas just a week away, the holiday period will allow business to gradually grow; this is, in fact, the time when movies that wouldn?t otherwise make any money tend to pull in some cash. That?s not to say that King Kong will definitely make up its $200 million price tag domestically, but if a movie like Miss Congeniality can hit $100 million as a result of opening at Christmas, anything goes. Kong is essentially a summer blockbuster opening in December, a month not known for huge openings (movies at this time tend to have legs). So in that regard, even though many of us have been flabbergasted by King Kong?s box office following thus far, I think we need to realize the reality of the situation. There?s still some hope these days even without a $100 million opening.

The feel-goody holiday fare, The Family Stone, opened to $4.1 million on Friday, averaging $1,667/screen in 2,465 theaters. If there were ever a movie that deserved to get the gossip boards in a full frantic for not hitting $75 million in three days, here it is. Kidding aside, this is a movie that will definitely benefit from the many days off moviegoers will soon be celebrating. Family Stone opened a bit like Must Love Dogs, which took in $4.5 million in 2,505 theaters for a $1,805 average. The opening was also similar to Diane Keaton?s film, Hanging Up, which grossed $3.7 million and was attacked by many moviegoers for false advertising. Promoted as a cute, entertaining flick, many complained that it was more of a sad experience. I?ve heard that Family Stone is also not exactly what the trailer makes it out to be, but some have already said that it shouldn?t be as much of a problem in comparison. With this friendly ensemble cast, many moviegoers should be giving it a shot in the next two weeks, which should make for quite a decent box office turnout despite a low-teens opening weekend. The Family Stone should take in around $11.5 million for the three-day frame (with a chance of up to $12.5 million).