Friday Box Office Analysis (12/2)

Following the box office failure of North Country (which was set up to at least a modest post-Monster hit), Charlize Theron saw decent results from her new action picture, Aeon Flux, which debuted to $4.8 million on Friday, averaging $1,846 per-screen in 2,608 theaters. The opening was very similar to Serenity on a per-screen average front, which captured $3.9 million in 2,188 theaters for a $1,805 average. Reviews have been terrible for the flick, which is sort of sad considering North Country pulled in reasonably good reviews (and kicked off buzz of another possible Oscar nomination for Charlize) and capped off its run with just $18.0 million (a figure Aeon could?ve surprised with this weekend).

Word of mouth shouldn?t be too kind, and legs for the feature should be as wobbly as they were for Serenity, with a chance of a second day drop, followed by what should be a big fall next Friday (and another big one once Peter Jackson owns the marketplace again). So all in all, Aeon really may not finish with much more than North Country. For the weekend, Aeon Flux should follow through with about $12.0 million (damn it, that theory about your first "gut" prediction can hurt sometimes?).