Weekend Outlook Chat (November 4 - 6)

This week, guest commentator Steven Truschka joins the chat

Lee: So what's your position on Jarhead?

Steven: How many theaters is it getting?

Lee: 2,410. I've put it into the Seabiscuit/Road to Perdition category: somewhat modest count with solid buzz. Obviously Seabiscuit and RtP had more buzz given the names, and Seabiscuit had the best-selling novel as an aid, and this is riding off of Sam Mendes' American Beauty credit.

Steven: Yeah, Road to Perdition had more buzz but that?s also because Mendes was just coming off American Beauty. I feel this movie actually has more buzz going for it than Perdition.

Lee: Jake's star-power is in question, but when you put its subject matter and cast up against let's say Behind Enemy Lines ($18.7 million in 2,770 theaters) with just Owen Wilson, it seems as if this has bit more of a catch. The tracking said Jarhead's on track for high teens and Chicken Little $30, but it was quite weird because the studios didn't even seem locked on the idea of Little at #1?as if Jarhead could surprise. But like people have said before, don't underestimate the power of Disney.

Steven: Adults seem to be buzzing about it because of the subject matter and, being in college, I have heard many young adults buzzing heavily on the movie. The studio has done an amazing job marketing it, and the trailer and commercials are very well done with the right usage of music. Foxx has some pull also when it comes to attracting a diverse crowd. I feel this one appeals to young, old, African American, white, and plus the subject matter with what is going on right now gives it even more buzz. I truly believe both Jarhead and Chicken Little will surprise. And I have told many people about Jarhead not having any real combat action scenes and that seems to drive down the anticipation a little more. But hardly anyone knows that.

Lee: This doesn't have names like Hanks (RtP) or Robert Redford and Brad Pitt with Spy Game, but the relevancy of its subject might help or even override that aspect.

Steven: With that theater count, I'm at a $21 - 27 mil opening weekend range. The buzz has been deafening for it. The subject and the pedigree of the director, along with well-done ads will take this one higher than Spy Game or Perdition.

Lee: That's what let me down somewhat when I saw it this week: the fact that it's not a real combat picture. And I think reactions are going to be split. Not everyone's gonna see the film they expected. I walked out kind of confused, even though I liked it. Even despite the lack of action, the material itself is not exactly what I was expecting. I thought it would be about more. And the ending felt inconclusive; it just kind of arrived. To me it was like, oh, they're wrapping everything up already? It's over? I know you haven't seen it, but I don't think I'll be the only one with that response.

Steven: Yeah but that also plays into long-term durability. The average moviegoer does not know that yet. But I agree. I can already tell many people will come away with it disappointed. Everyone I have told so far that there isn?t any combat action is like, what??

Lee: There's one quote at Rotten Tomatoes that I thought summed up what many people are going to think: "Ok, so um...when does THE MOVIE start?"

Steven: So what are your predictions for it?

Lee: I'm pretty much using Master & Commander as my basis for predicting its per-screen average. That grossed $25.1 mil in 3,101, which is a lot more theaters. There were times during the film when it felt bigger than I was initially predicting, but at the same time, it's hard to imagine this nearing Saving Private Ryan?s figure, which did $30 in 2,453.

Steven: Yeah but Master and Commander lacked young adult buzz.

Lee: Well I'll give it to you: the studios usually seem pretty confident in these tracking reports, and this week was strangely not the case.

Steven: Saving Private Ryan had huge buzz, however, with Hanks and Spielberg and for the opening scene. That was also in 1998 dollars.

Lee: This also has mixed reviews, which Seabiscuit and RtP didn't have.

Steven: I think RtP did have mixed reviews.

Lee: RtP 83% at Rotten Tomatoes.
Yeah I was thinking the same too.
Seabiscuit 79%, Jarhead 53%
So yeah, they'll probably pack 'em in opening weekend, but its legs should not be too solid.

Steven: That?ll influence some older viewers but not so much younger ones. I see 40% drops in the future.

Lee: And Peter Sarsgaard is getting to be known by mainstreamers. Flightplan did $24.6 mil in 3,424 ? of course off Foster, but it was still a step for him. Skeleton Key did $16.1 million.

Steven: Yeah, back to Private Ryan ? that?s a gross of about $41 million in today?s dollars. I feel with more relevance, this one can make close to $30 mil.

Lee: That's a mighty bold prediction. Only I'm allowed to be that crazy lol. $30 mil would be pulling in just about everyone who flocked to Ryan. I find that a little hard to believe. That was an intense combat film, and it was running off Spielberg's 30-year-long career. Most people usually go into a Spielberg film knowing they're going to like it. Sam Mendes hasn't quite gotten there yet.

Steven: I agree. I just think $30 mil isn?t out of the question. But I stick with my prediction of $25 mil with a range of $22 - 27 mil.

Lee: Sounds fair enough.

Steven: What?s your final prediction?

Lee: I'm at $19 but could see $22 - 24.

Steven: Now onto Chicken Little... both Jarhead and Chicken Little seem to be wildcards.

Lee: Chicken Little is one of those movies I really want to go lower than the norm on, but if I do so, it stands a decent chance of kicking my ass.

Steven: It?s hard to find a comparison for Chicken Little, and it?s hard to decipher buzz for a children?s movie.

Lee: That's exactly what the tracking said.

Steven: Here is what Chicken Little has going for it: Disney name, pretty well known story with families, and computer animation.

Lee: It has the same bookings as Robots here in LA, but it seems like that might be a stretch. It doesn't have the names behind it like Madagascar and Shrek had, but do names really matter?

Steven: Things going against: No name voice talent, decent to poor reviews. However, voice talent is hard to judge. Does it really add to a cartoon?s gross?

Lee: Incredibles didn't have strong voice talent but it was Pixar.

Steven: And Sinbad had names but it also looked bland.

Lee: It feels like you'd be playing the sketchy "going against Disney" game if you put Jarhead ahead of it. I remember Be Cool went against The Pacifier and lost. And Hitchhikers Guide was going against something too.

Steven: Hitchikers just went against XXX2.

Lee: There we go, and there were some strong predictions for xXx. Chicken Little has a huge count like Robots and Polar Express, but PE was an awkward sell. It took a while to catch on.

Steven: What I didn?t get about Polar Express is that it had a huge talented actor, great looking animation, and a strong story that many families knew as well, and yet it pulled in only $23 mil opening weekend which was seen as a huge disappointment.

Lee: You could tell in the marketing that WB was not that sure what they were doing for Polar, highlighting Forrest Gump and Cast Away for a family picture. This is more of a downright easy family movie.

Steven: However, that was Christmas time when movies seem to open smaller and have better legs. I highly doubt Little will go as low as Polar Express. However, I feel like it should be able to surpass Robots with a better story and with Disney behind it. Disney knows how to market, with or without Pixar. This is a tough one to predict.

Lee: I saw trailers as far back as Christmas.

Steven: I'm going to make it higher than Robots, for the simple fact that this a time when families love to go to movies and it?s an easygoing story. Families and audiences are going in knowing what to expect. Plus the characters are more kid friendly and accessible than Robots. Never underestimate animals in cartoons. I'm in the range of $38 - 45 mil.

Lee: At one theater it's at, they also played Hitchhikers Guide, but they also played National Treasure, which did $35.

Steven: I can honestly see it getting as high as $50 mil, but that may be way too much. I think worst case scenario would be $23 mil like Polar Express.

Lee: $30 - 33 here.

Steven: I'll say $42 mil. Disney is too strong a name not to beat Robots. There isn?t anything exciting happening this weekend, so there won't be too many distractions for families.

Lee: And this is also the weekend Incredibles came out. Polar was one week after.

Steven: True, but it was Pixar. Here?s a good question: do you think the average moviegoer will see Disney and computer animation and automatically think it?s a Pixar movie?

Lee: I think it's pretty clear this isn?t Pixar.

Steven: Because I know some people I have talked to thought it was Pixar. They thought it was the same people who made Incredibles since it was Disney.

Lee: The marketing is so skewed towards kids that it's just too-Disney for confusion.

Steven: True.

Lee: The exception so far seems to be Pixar?s Cars. I hated the teaser trailer and it looks like purely kid fare. But we?ll see with time.

Steven: Yes we shall.