Friday Box Office Analysis (10/28)

Lions Gate Films saw the biggest bow of their term with the opening of the horror sequel, Saw II, which surprised with an estimated $12.3 million in ticket sales on Friday. The film is a sequel to the 2004 surprise hit, which took in $6.7 million ($2,876/screen) and followed through with an $18.3 million weekend in just 2,315 theaters. Saw II was booked in 2,949 theaters, a risky move for a cult flick, and averaged $4,154/screen. The figure wasn?t far off from the debut of The Ring Two, which brought in $14.8 million in 3,332 theaters for a similar $4,443 average, and was very much on par with Dawn of the Dead.

Even with Halloween having worked in its favor last year, Saw dropped 7% to $6.2 million. Saw II will likely have a slightly bigger rush-out factor, possibly in line with Ring Two, which slipped 12% to $13.1 million. In such a case, Saw II would see a Saturday gross of roughly $11.0 million. Saw only saw a 19% difference from Friday to Sunday, and even though it had Halloween, positive word of mouth on an iffy concept likely helped. Now that people know what they?re walking into, Sunday?s drop could be substantially bigger. Sunday could be at about $7.0 million, which could give Saw II a weekend of $30 million.

The Legend of Zorro opened solidly, grossing $5.5 million in 3,520 theaters, averaging $1,566/screen. The first Zorro came in seven years ago to the tune of $7.4 million on its first day, averaging $2,954/screen in 2,515 theaters. The debut is just a bit below Sahara, another family-friendly action picture, which took in $6.2 million and $1,950/screen, and beat out the PG-rated Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow, which grossed $5.2 million. This time Zorro had a lighter touch than before, especially with the edition of Zorro?s son doing some of the fighting. That might?ve turned off some of the moviegoers wanting some non-cutesy action, and this edition will probably win over some of the audience that flocked to Shanghai Knights (which opened to $6.2 million), which offered similar fare. A mid-30%-range Saturday increase should be in store for Zorro, which should put it at a weekend take of $17.0 million.

Arriving with very modest results, Prime grossed $2.2 million on Friday, averaging $1,175/screen in only 1,831 theaters. The Meryl Streep/Uma Thurman romantic comedy about a therapist whose patient is dating her son looked very run-of-the-mill in the ads and lacked solid selling points beyond the two names mentioned. The movie merely looked like a sitcom with a ?who cares? concept/twist, and took on the image of a matinee flick at the very best. Streep should be able to give this comedy a Saturday jump of over 30% to about $2.8 million or so. And with older women likely to take advantage of Sunday matinees, a low-20%-range fall from Friday should be in order. Prime should be headed for a weekend take of around $6.5 - 7.0 million.

Nicolas Cage saw even worse results from The Weatherman than he did for his recent outing, Lord of War, as the dreadfully marketed comedy took in $1.4 million in 1,510 theaters. Ads featuring Cage getting smothered in eggs on the streets of Manhattan and then carrying a bow-and-arrow for revenge likely induced confusion rather than amusement from viewers. This could be one of those movies that is really difficult to sell appropriately in the ads (like In Her Shoes), but even reviews were not too kind on the Gore Verbinski film. Matchstick Men opened to $4.1 million on its opening day and jumped 43% to $5.9 million on Saturday. The addition of Michael Caine could help Weatherman reach a second day boost in that range, but the movie?s incline should be of at least 30 - 35%. A $4.5 million weekend should be expected.