Friday Box Office Analysis (10/21)

Doom performed right in line with The Rock?s track record, delivering $6.0 million on opening day, averaging $1,972/screen in 3,044 theaters. The opening is exactly on par with The Rundown, which was also backed by Universal and brought in $6.0 million and $1,915/screen in 3,152 theaters. And Walking Tall had grossed $5.3 million and $1,881/screen on its opening day.

The movie had the chance to surprise to the extent of Universal?s Dawn of the Dead ($10.9 million - $3,956/screen), especially with Halloween on the horizon (The Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake had surprised at this time in 2003). However, given the box office slump of 2005, that was a bit hard to accomplish, and it?s possible that this big-screen adaptation of the once-huge video game is a bit too late (the advertising material also didn?t have much of a catch beyond the first-person POV shots). Doom opened in the same realm as the big-screen adaptation of Resident Evil, which took in $6.8 million and $2,677/screen, and $17.7 million over the weekend ? its sequel, Apocalypse, had grossed $9.2 million and $2,811/screen.

The Rundown saw a Saturday boost of 27% to $7.7 million, but it was also family-friendly with a PG-13 rating, whereas Doom is R ? and the video game fan base might make this front-loaded by Saturday. Walking Tall had jumped just 18%, which could be an optimistic possibility for Doom?s second day increase (Blade: Trinity had also increased 25% from its $5.3 million Friday figure after two sequels). Team America (another R-rated October flick) could be a comparison for the smallest increase, which jumped 3% from $4.5 million. Doom should be heading for a weekend take of about $16 - 17 million.

Dakota Fanning saw decent results from her first leading role, as the family picture Dreamer took in $2.8 million in 2,007 theaters, averaging $1,390/screen. The figure is right in line with the cutesy dog picture, Because of Winn-Dixie, which debuted to $2.8 million in 3,188 theaters. Winn-Dixie saw a big Saturday increase of 51%, which could be in store for Dreamer, but a mid-30?s jump like The Ice Princess could be a safer bet. A weekend gross of around $9.0 million could be in store.

Charlize Theron?s Oscar for Monster didn?t help North Country?s box office prospects, as the Erin Brockovich-like inspirational drama grossed just $2.0 million on Friday. The movie opened in 2,555 theaters and averaged $759/screen. Given Monster?s edgy material, it wasn?t quite clear how much pull Theron would actually have in a mainstream picture, and this might?ve been better off starting with a limited release platform to build buzz. Erin Brockovich had the huge benefit of having Julia Roberts, who is one of the biggest mainstream draws in history. Both films received strong reviews, but even that isn?t always enough for an immediate box office following. A Saturday increase in the high 20% range or the mid-to-high 30% range should result for North Country, which should give it about $6 - 7 million for the weekend.