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Scott Sycamore - Weekend Box Office
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Box office comparisons - Review: Justice League (C)
Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (October 21 - 23)
By Staff of LMI Published October 21, 2005
Doom could be $12 - 16, but it also has a minor capacity to surprise given the video game fan-boys.
Lee: So how much do you think Doom's gonna make this weekend in 3,044 theaters?
Scott: What else is opening?
Lee: North Country, Dreamer, and Stay.
Scott: Theater counts for each of those?
Lee: North C 2,555, Dreamer 2,007 and Stay 1,684.
Scott: Well, my first ballpark guess on Doom has a wide range ? could be anywhere from $12 - 16, but it also has a minor capacity to surprise given the video game fan-boys. Within that range I'd say $14 - 15 is most likely.
Lee: I'm in the "surprise" range.
Scott: Oh yeah?
Lee: I see this as a potential Dawn of the Dawn. It?s R, too.
Scott: Which did?
Lee: $27.
Scott: Came out when?
Lee: Spring of 2004. The first Resident Evil did $18 without much star-power.
Scott: People may be growing tired of these cheesy game movies, though, and it could be compared to House of the Dead and stuff like that.
Lee: Well, the advertising for Dawn was cheesy if you ask me, and it did well.
Scott: I'll revise my prediction a little ? high teens: $17 - 19, based on that info, but not much more.
Lee: The director did Exit Wounds, which did $18.
Scott: I don?t think it?s Dawn of the Dead material. The theater count is kind of low, even though it's the highest of the weekend.
Lee: Dawn had 2745.
Scott: But remember my initial response too. Yeah...a movie like Doom should have the mid-3000s.
Lee: Well, we'll see.
Scott: I mean didn't Dukes of Hazzard have that much? I think North Country could take the weekend.
Lee: Dukes got 3,785.
Scott: There you go. Doom has much more of a fan-base than Dukes, and lower theater count means even less confidence in the movie. And I mean come on, don't you think it's gonna suck?
Lee: When has that ever stopped people from showing up?
Scott: A lot of times.
Lee: I'm betting that a lot of the people who were laughing at the trailer at Serenity are gonna show up. They probably want a cheesy fun time. It?s like Freddy vs. Jason; you know it?s going to be bad, but you show up to have a good time anyway.
Scott: A movie like this has to be properly calibrated for the marketplace; they can't just wing it out there.
Lee: It's The Rock's biggest scaled, most recognizable concept.
Scott: They know it's gonna get destroyed by critics, and there's the problem of non-gamers and nerds showing up to the thing. I play games and I barely even want to see it. North Country will do strongly, performing just below or equal to Doom. Stay and Dreamer will both do mediocre. Stay about $8 million, and Dreamer about $6.
Lee: I highly doubt NC is going to catch on immediately. I?ve got it at $10. You telling me that Erin Brockovich in the coal mining field is gonna sell?
Scott: Yes, the older folks are gonna pump full of that thing. And Theron?s riding the Oscar nod potential ? major critical praise.
Lee: I think a thing like this needs the word of mouth after it opens.
Scott: And it will have it. While Doom will likely sink. NC will have the most staying power of those four movies. Instead, ironically, of Stay.
Lee: NC is going to the Village in Westwood. Here are the best comparisons:
Open Range $14.0 in 2,075
Shall We Dance $11.8 in 1,772
Frequency $9.0 in 2,621
White Oleander $5.6 in 1,510
I break movies down by theaters when predicting. Adult dramas don't often play at the Village.
Scott: Best comparison there is Open Range. If Open range does $14 in the same number of theaters, North does $16 - 18.
Lee: That did $14 in 500 fewer, and had more star-power.
Scott: No it didn?t. Costner?s not a big draw, nor is Duvall or anybody. Theron is way hot right now, plus there's the buzz on Aeon Flux coming soon. And what does 500 fewer mean? That's right...less money ? stop contradicting yourself. Your $10 mil prediction is wrong.
Lee: Alright then lol.
Scott: What about Stay and Dreamer?
Lee: Dreamer $6.5, Stay $5.5. Ewan doesn't seem to be a draw.
Scott: I say Stay outperforms because of the Halloween season.
Lee: Down with Love did $7 and had Renee.
Scott: Yeah but is Dakota Fanning a draw? Stay is a thriller in the right season. Dreamer is counter-programming, which could backfire, but I admit the family audience can destroy anything when they?re motivated. Analysts say Stay will be on the bottom of the new crop, bringing about $4 - 5 and Dreamer maybe slightly more. The take for both will be negligible.
Lee: Dreamer could be in line with Ice Princess at $6.8 (had 2,501 theaters versus 2,007), or Because of Winn-Dixie on a per-screen average front: $3,202/screen in 3,188 = $10.2 mil. $3,202/screen would be $6.5 million.
Scott: It might have the same per-screen but it's in over 1,000 fewer theaters and that means lack of confidence.
Lee: It's basically Seabiscuit without the best-selling book and star-power.
Scott: It's only for little girls who love horses, and their dragged-along parents. That market is iffy to say the least.
Lee: Madeline did $6.4 million in 1,863.
Scott: Yeah but you think too much in terms of comparisons, and this year is proving that almost anything can under-perform: case in point, your Doom prediction. $27.6 million seems absurd to me for such an obviously bad movie. For a movie to do over $25 right now, it's gotta have very strong selling points.
Lee: So you're telling me Doom doesn't have much more power than Walking Tall did? That did $15.5 in 2,836, and there?s also The Rundown at $18.5 in 3,152.
Scott: It doesn't, really. Yes, there's the video game angle, but I think people can see through that. They're not just gonna rush out because they maybe liked the games. Remember, the box office is in a major slump, and that rubs off on all movies. It may do equal to or slightly better than previous Rock efforts, but certainly not $27+ million.
Lee: What did Hellboy have that Doom doesn't? That opened to $23.2 mil in 3,028.
Scott: It had the advantage of not coming out during a slump, when people are sick of movies in general. Hellboy was also riding a wave of comic book films. Video game movies are still coming out sporadically and usually to terrible receptions.
Lee: So would you say Resident Evil 2 ($23.0) would be a stretch?
Scott: That would be the upper end of what Doom will do. I think we can expect a drop on Saturday, and a huge drop from Friday to Friday.
Lee: That's pretty much a given.
Scott: How many theaters did RE2 have?
Lee: 3,284.
Scott: As I?ve said, if they had more confidence in this thing, they would have dropped it in more theaters at first.
Lee: Any thoughts on what Shopgirl can do in 8 theaters?
Scott: Should do quite well in limited release. I'm not sure I can give you an average.
Lee: Broken Flowers-level?
Scott: Throw some numbers at me.
Lee: Broken Flowers was $29,000/screen in 27 theaters. I know it made $38,000 at the Laemmle in Santa Monica, and Shopgirl?s playing there.
Scott: I can see Shopgirl doing even better, average-wise, because of the lower theater count. I think it has equal if not more selling points than Flowers.
Lee: It's pretty much a twist on Lost in Translation, which did $40k/screen in 23. And there's the Manhattan-vibe, which made $44,000/screen in 29 back in 1979.
Scott: I can see this doing $40k or even a little more on just 8 screens, and maybe even $50k.
Lee: So you're at about $320,000 - 400,000.
Scott: That sounds plausible. Steve Martin is an icon.
Lee: $50k would be Sideways-level.
Scott: This could be there; it's based on a Martin book, so his persona will be all over it.
Lee: You've got a point.
Scott: What about when they take Shopgirl wider?
Lee: Not much.
Scott: Do you know what they're planning?
Lee: Not yet.
Scott: Ok then, anything else?
Lee: What about Kiss Kiss Bang Bang - 8 theaters.
Scott: Wow.
Lee: The Salton Sea did $11,000/screen in 15.
Scott: This should fizzle mighty quickly.
Lee: But this doesn't have the druggy element, which inarguably is a big difference.
Scott: I can see this at about $5 - 8k per-screen. Downey, Jr. strikes me as B.O. Kryptonite
Lee: He's in Good Night and Good Luck.
Scott: Yeah, but just as a supporter.
Lee: And we all know Two Girls and a Guy just KILLED at the box office.
Scott: Yes, James Toback is known as the "reigning box office kingpin of modern cinema."
Lee: Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if this did like The Last Shot, which pulled $5,000/screen in 35.
Scott: Baldwin and Broderick, and Kilmer and Downey, Jr.? This kind of stuff makes you realize how truly few movie-opening stars there are out there.
Lee: Yes. I might say $10kish just because it only has 8 theaters.
Scott: Sounds plausible. But maybe lower because of the lack of selling points.
Scott: What else is opening?
Lee: North Country, Dreamer, and Stay.
Scott: Theater counts for each of those?
Lee: North C 2,555, Dreamer 2,007 and Stay 1,684.
Scott: Well, my first ballpark guess on Doom has a wide range ? could be anywhere from $12 - 16, but it also has a minor capacity to surprise given the video game fan-boys. Within that range I'd say $14 - 15 is most likely.
Lee: I'm in the "surprise" range.
Scott: Oh yeah?
Lee: I see this as a potential Dawn of the Dawn. It?s R, too.
Scott: Which did?
Lee: $27.
Scott: Came out when?
Lee: Spring of 2004. The first Resident Evil did $18 without much star-power.
Scott: People may be growing tired of these cheesy game movies, though, and it could be compared to House of the Dead and stuff like that.
Lee: Well, the advertising for Dawn was cheesy if you ask me, and it did well.
Scott: I'll revise my prediction a little ? high teens: $17 - 19, based on that info, but not much more.
Lee: The director did Exit Wounds, which did $18.
Scott: I don?t think it?s Dawn of the Dead material. The theater count is kind of low, even though it's the highest of the weekend.
Lee: Dawn had 2745.
Scott: But remember my initial response too. Yeah...a movie like Doom should have the mid-3000s.
Lee: Well, we'll see.
Scott: I mean didn't Dukes of Hazzard have that much? I think North Country could take the weekend.
Lee: Dukes got 3,785.
Scott: There you go. Doom has much more of a fan-base than Dukes, and lower theater count means even less confidence in the movie. And I mean come on, don't you think it's gonna suck?
Lee: When has that ever stopped people from showing up?
Scott: A lot of times.
Lee: I'm betting that a lot of the people who were laughing at the trailer at Serenity are gonna show up. They probably want a cheesy fun time. It?s like Freddy vs. Jason; you know it?s going to be bad, but you show up to have a good time anyway.
Scott: A movie like this has to be properly calibrated for the marketplace; they can't just wing it out there.
Lee: It's The Rock's biggest scaled, most recognizable concept.
Scott: They know it's gonna get destroyed by critics, and there's the problem of non-gamers and nerds showing up to the thing. I play games and I barely even want to see it. North Country will do strongly, performing just below or equal to Doom. Stay and Dreamer will both do mediocre. Stay about $8 million, and Dreamer about $6.
Lee: I highly doubt NC is going to catch on immediately. I?ve got it at $10. You telling me that Erin Brockovich in the coal mining field is gonna sell?
Scott: Yes, the older folks are gonna pump full of that thing. And Theron?s riding the Oscar nod potential ? major critical praise.
Lee: I think a thing like this needs the word of mouth after it opens.
Scott: And it will have it. While Doom will likely sink. NC will have the most staying power of those four movies. Instead, ironically, of Stay.
Lee: NC is going to the Village in Westwood. Here are the best comparisons:
Open Range $14.0 in 2,075
Shall We Dance $11.8 in 1,772
Frequency $9.0 in 2,621
White Oleander $5.6 in 1,510
I break movies down by theaters when predicting. Adult dramas don't often play at the Village.
Scott: Best comparison there is Open Range. If Open range does $14 in the same number of theaters, North does $16 - 18.
Lee: That did $14 in 500 fewer, and had more star-power.
Scott: No it didn?t. Costner?s not a big draw, nor is Duvall or anybody. Theron is way hot right now, plus there's the buzz on Aeon Flux coming soon. And what does 500 fewer mean? That's right...less money ? stop contradicting yourself. Your $10 mil prediction is wrong.
Lee: Alright then lol.
Scott: What about Stay and Dreamer?
Lee: Dreamer $6.5, Stay $5.5. Ewan doesn't seem to be a draw.
Scott: I say Stay outperforms because of the Halloween season.
Lee: Down with Love did $7 and had Renee.
Scott: Yeah but is Dakota Fanning a draw? Stay is a thriller in the right season. Dreamer is counter-programming, which could backfire, but I admit the family audience can destroy anything when they?re motivated. Analysts say Stay will be on the bottom of the new crop, bringing about $4 - 5 and Dreamer maybe slightly more. The take for both will be negligible.
Lee: Dreamer could be in line with Ice Princess at $6.8 (had 2,501 theaters versus 2,007), or Because of Winn-Dixie on a per-screen average front: $3,202/screen in 3,188 = $10.2 mil. $3,202/screen would be $6.5 million.
Scott: It might have the same per-screen but it's in over 1,000 fewer theaters and that means lack of confidence.
Lee: It's basically Seabiscuit without the best-selling book and star-power.
Scott: It's only for little girls who love horses, and their dragged-along parents. That market is iffy to say the least.
Lee: Madeline did $6.4 million in 1,863.
Scott: Yeah but you think too much in terms of comparisons, and this year is proving that almost anything can under-perform: case in point, your Doom prediction. $27.6 million seems absurd to me for such an obviously bad movie. For a movie to do over $25 right now, it's gotta have very strong selling points.
Lee: So you're telling me Doom doesn't have much more power than Walking Tall did? That did $15.5 in 2,836, and there?s also The Rundown at $18.5 in 3,152.
Scott: It doesn't, really. Yes, there's the video game angle, but I think people can see through that. They're not just gonna rush out because they maybe liked the games. Remember, the box office is in a major slump, and that rubs off on all movies. It may do equal to or slightly better than previous Rock efforts, but certainly not $27+ million.
Lee: What did Hellboy have that Doom doesn't? That opened to $23.2 mil in 3,028.
Scott: It had the advantage of not coming out during a slump, when people are sick of movies in general. Hellboy was also riding a wave of comic book films. Video game movies are still coming out sporadically and usually to terrible receptions.
Lee: So would you say Resident Evil 2 ($23.0) would be a stretch?
Scott: That would be the upper end of what Doom will do. I think we can expect a drop on Saturday, and a huge drop from Friday to Friday.
Lee: That's pretty much a given.
Scott: How many theaters did RE2 have?
Lee: 3,284.
Scott: As I?ve said, if they had more confidence in this thing, they would have dropped it in more theaters at first.
Lee: Any thoughts on what Shopgirl can do in 8 theaters?
Scott: Should do quite well in limited release. I'm not sure I can give you an average.
Lee: Broken Flowers-level?
Scott: Throw some numbers at me.
Lee: Broken Flowers was $29,000/screen in 27 theaters. I know it made $38,000 at the Laemmle in Santa Monica, and Shopgirl?s playing there.
Scott: I can see Shopgirl doing even better, average-wise, because of the lower theater count. I think it has equal if not more selling points than Flowers.
Lee: It's pretty much a twist on Lost in Translation, which did $40k/screen in 23. And there's the Manhattan-vibe, which made $44,000/screen in 29 back in 1979.
Scott: I can see this doing $40k or even a little more on just 8 screens, and maybe even $50k.
Lee: So you're at about $320,000 - 400,000.
Scott: That sounds plausible. Steve Martin is an icon.
Lee: $50k would be Sideways-level.
Scott: This could be there; it's based on a Martin book, so his persona will be all over it.
Lee: You've got a point.
Scott: What about when they take Shopgirl wider?
Lee: Not much.
Scott: Do you know what they're planning?
Lee: Not yet.
Scott: Ok then, anything else?
Lee: What about Kiss Kiss Bang Bang - 8 theaters.
Scott: Wow.
Lee: The Salton Sea did $11,000/screen in 15.
Scott: This should fizzle mighty quickly.
Lee: But this doesn't have the druggy element, which inarguably is a big difference.
Scott: I can see this at about $5 - 8k per-screen. Downey, Jr. strikes me as B.O. Kryptonite
Lee: He's in Good Night and Good Luck.
Scott: Yeah, but just as a supporter.
Lee: And we all know Two Girls and a Guy just KILLED at the box office.
Scott: Yes, James Toback is known as the "reigning box office kingpin of modern cinema."
Lee: Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if this did like The Last Shot, which pulled $5,000/screen in 35.
Scott: Baldwin and Broderick, and Kilmer and Downey, Jr.? This kind of stuff makes you realize how truly few movie-opening stars there are out there.
Lee: Yes. I might say $10kish just because it only has 8 theaters.
Scott: Sounds plausible. But maybe lower because of the lack of selling points.
'Doom' Articles
- Craig's Doom review D+
October 22, 2005 It?s fun as a game but there is nothing here that is interesting enough to satisfy a movie. The entire thing just wears thin. -- Craig Younkin - Friday Box Office Analysis (10/21)
October 22, 2005 Doom opened in the same realm as the big-screen adaptation of Resident Evil, which took in $6.8 million {on opening day) and $17.7 million over the weekend. -- Lee Tistaert
