Friday Box Office Analysis (9/23)

Disney launched an aggressive ad-campaign to relive the performance of Sweet Home Alabama (which opened at the end of September in 2002), but ended up coming in just a notch above the very similarly themed thriller, The Forgotten. The Jodie Foster picture took in a strong $8.5 million on its opening day in 3,424 theaters, averaging $2,490/screen, which is equivalent to the $2,455 average of Forgotten (which grossed $7.6 million in 3,104 theaters). Sweet Home Alabama had debuted to $13.1 million in its first day for a scorching average of $3,984/screen in 3,293 theaters; it concluded the weekend with a mighty $35.6 million, nearly doubling the debut of the first Legally Blonde.

Flightplan merely looked like Forgotten on a plane with a touch of Air Force One (which grossed $37.1 million over its three-day weekend). Foster had propelled Panic Room to a muscular $30.1 million debut in 3,033 theaters, but it also tapped into a universal fear amongst adults: the fear of home robbery. Some could say that director David Fincher also had a cult audience after Seven and Fight Club, but Sony did not advertise Panic Room as such. Harrison Ford (at the time) would also seem to be a bigger star for such an action/thriller as Air Force One, and such a concept for a movie was original; and reactions to Panic Room were very split. But in regard to stories tapping into a universal fear, you would think losing your child on a flight would not be one of the top-rated picks (compared to your life being in danger where you feel most comfortable).

A Saturday increase in the high-20% range ala Man on Fire could be in store, with a low-20% range increase being other possibility (like The Forgotten and Collateral). The Interpreter had managed a 34% Saturday boost, but the feature did have a director with a hot reputation, as well as two A-list stars. Flightplan should be looking at a weekend take of about $25.0 million.

After exploding in just five theaters last week (with a $77,000 average), Tim Burton?s Corpse Bride saw solid results nationwide. The animated picture grossed $6.6 million in 3,204 theaters and averaged $2,072/screen. Though being a follow-up in collaboration between Burton and star Johnny Depp after Charlie and the Chocolate Factory grossed over $200 million domestically, Corpse Bride is indeed stop-motion animation, which is different (and more odd) than typical animation. This could be a reason the picture didn?t fare better, and the ads seemed to lack big selling points besides the talent that was onboard. Pirates of the Caribbean catapulted Depp?s star-power to phenomenal levels, but moviegoers might not care so much if they?re simply going to hear his voice for an hour and fifteen minutes (when his physical performance is usually the highlight). Voice work can be a highlight ala Robin Williams as the genie in Aladdin, but the material that Warner Bros. was advertising did not give any such hint that Depp would be a blast to listen to.

Corpse Bride opened just a hair above The Polar Express ($6.3 million - $1,713/screen), which was another iffy release considering Tom Hanks was just a voice in an animated picture (and the ads featured the tagline, ?From the director of Forrest Gump and Cast Away? when it?s a family flick). However, Hanks (being the biggest actor out there) probably has more appeal than Depp with such genre fare. Polar Express bounced up 64% in its second day, but it was also nearing the holidays. A $10 million Saturday gross (50% boost) isn?t out of the question, but an increase in the 20% range could be more likely. Corpse Bride might follow through with around $20 - 22 million.

Fox Searchlight?s Roll Bounce fared only modestly on Friday, taking in $2.3 million in 1,625 theaters for a $1,400 average. The trailer showed off the kind of feel-good groovy vibe that can sometimes lead to a surprise hit ala Drumline ($4.1 million - $2,247/screen in 1,836 theaters) and Jessica Alba?s Honey ($5.0 million - $2,575 average in 1,942 theaters). Instead, the Bow Wow-starring flick was in line with Nick Cannon?s comedy, Love Don?t Cost a Thing (who also stars here), which bowed to $2.2 million and $1,193/screen. The ad-campaign seemed to start up at the last second for Roll Bounce; an earlier start could have proved to be more successful and could then have maybe lured in a solid audience that likes these feel-good underdog stories. Roll Bounce could see a 30% increase on Saturday, giving it about $6.5 - 7.0 million for the weekend.