Friday Box Office Analysis (8/19)

The R-rated sex comedy, 40-Year-Old Virgin, landed at the top of the box office on Friday ahead of Red Eye, delivering $7.3 million, on par with the debut of American Pie. The movie (which is Steve Carell?s first leading role) played in 2,845 theaters and averaged $2,562 per-screen, in sync with the $6.7 million tally and $2,675 average of Pie. The movie faced the difficult task of having to play PG-13 in the ads while hinting at raunchy substance and giving enough of a promise for more. Unlike Wedding Crashers, which had two bankable stars, Virgin simply featured Carell, who isn?t guaranteed box office gold but has nevertheless been a scene-stealer in Bruce Almighty and Anchorman.

Wedding Crashers surprised by not only increasing in its second day but also by having a Sunday tally that was bigger than opening night, which is unheard of for the genre. Some people (after seeing it) might label Virgin as a one-joke concept while others will likely praise it as the best comedy of the year, and the movie faces the problem of not being as light and traditional as Crashers (despite being a crowd-pleaser in general). The flick has its lighthearted layers but the material is much more risky in comparison, which could turn off moviegoers who are looking for safe, cute content. Wedding Crashers plays by more of a recognizable and well-liked formula, and even though reviews are much better on Virgin, the latter is the ultimate type of film ala There?s Something About Mary that could take time to catch on. Given its late-summer arrival, legs are probably not going to be as impressive as they were for Crashers, which could mean that many people might discover Virgin on DVD.

Even with very good word of mouth and successful sneaks, American Pie fell 3% in its second day and ended up with $19.0 million over the weekend. If immediate word of mouth takes over on 40-Year-Old Virgin, the comedy could increase up to 20% on Saturday, but an increase of any kind is looking to be a 50/50 chance. A weekend take of about $21 - 23 million could result.

Wes Craven returned to the genre that made him famous with Red Eye, but the horror/thriller saw more of a solid debut than a killer performance ala Scream 2 and 3. The movie grossed $6.2 million on Friday, averaging $2,001/screen in 3,079 theaters. The debut is a notch above The Notebook ($5.2 million - $2,277/screen), which is where audiences discovered Rachel McAdams, and came more in line with The Butterfly Effect ($6.1 million - $2,335/screen). Despite being a sleeper at the box office, 28 Days Later drew mixed results in general, as some people really liked it while others didn?t get what they expected (it was marketed as a zombie flick and was more of a serious film), which made Cillian Murphy?s star-power a bit of a mystery. And this is also McAdams? first leading role just like with Steve Carell and 40-Year-Old Virgin.

The Butterfly Effect saw a modest 12% second day increase but debuted in January when Saturday increases are more probable than in summer for this genre. A slight drop or a slight Saturday boost could result for Red Eye, which could give it about $17/18 million for the weekend.

Disney released their animated fare, Valiant, in an inauspicious position given its very modest 2,014 theater count, and withdrew just $1.8 million, averaging $916/screen. Arriving at the end of summer when kids are about to head back to school, the movie wasn?t in a solid position to surprise and was lacking an ad-campaign (and had a weird title). The movie was given a similar theater count release as Two Brothers (despite being a live-action release), which grossed $2.1 million and averaged $980 per-screen in its opening day, and it also debuted on par with The Ice Princess, which grossed $2.1 million and averaged $841/screen in 2,501 theaters. Two Brothers followed through with $6.1 million (10% Sat increase) for the weekend while Ice Princess captured $6.8 million (35% increase). A tally in that range should be in store for Valiant.