Friday Box Office Analysis (7/29)

Beating The Island?s disastrous debut by only a slight margin, Stealth opened in third place on Friday behind Wedding Crashers and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, pulling in $5.0 million. Booked in 3,494 theaters, the Rob Cohen-directed flick averaged $1,437 per-screen, on par with last Friday?s $1,346 average ($4.2 million) for the Michael Bay flick. The opening is a huge dip for Cohen (ala Bay last week), whose xXx debuted to $17.3 million ($5,131/screen) while The Fast and the Furious had raked in $15.2 million ($5,790/screen).

The Island saw a slim 8% increase on its second day while Tears of the Sun, Behind Enemy Lines, and Sahara saw 16%, 19%, and 24% boosts respectively, while Reign of Fire slid 3%. Anything in that region will put Stealth on track for a weekend in the $15.0 million vicinity.

Sky High managed to outdo Shark Boy & Lavagirl?s opening on Friday, as the kid picture lured in $4.8 million in 2,905 theaters, averaging $1,668/screen. The movie had help from a reasonable quantity of good reviews labeling it as a fun movie for the family, and the debut is even more impressive considering the movie?s ad-campaign didn?t rely on a tagline like ?From the director of Sky Kids? (to tap into a built-in audience) in regard to Shark Boy. The opening is also in sync with Spy Kids 2, which had grossed $5.2 million in 3,307 theaters for a $1,567 average. That sequel rose 25% on its second day during summer, a figure that Sky High could be able to reach. If so, the kid flick stands a chance to take out Stealth for the weekend (for third place), which would make for one sad day on Sunday. A weekend take of $14.0 - 15.5 million should result.

Must Love Dogs saw fairly expected business on Friday, as the romantic comedy grossed $4.4 million in 2,505 theaters for a $1,752 average. While the opening was a bit below the $6.0 million earning of the relevant You?ve Got Mail, Must Love Dogs lacked an A-list star like Tom Hanks (as well as a lovable duo being reunited after many years), and performed more in line with Cusack's Serendipity ($4.4 million - $1,692/screen) and Two Weeks Notice ($4.7 million - $1,693/screen). Diane Lane and John Cusack are not exactly rush-out names to most moviegoers, and the movie played in nearly 1,300 more theaters than Under the Tuscan Sun, which averaged a stronger $2,504/screen as a result of being limited (it also had a built-in audience from the book). A Saturday increase in the high-20% range should be doable with help from the date crowds, putting Must Love Dogs at about $14.0 million for the weekend.