Friday Box Office Analysis (7/22)

With his first project without producer Jerry Bruckheimer on board, Michael Bay crashed and burned with the action picture, The Island, pulling disastrous xXx2 business. The Ewan McGregor/Scarlett Johannson thriller took in $4.4 million on Friday, averaging $1,420 per-screen in 3,122 theaters. In comparison, the Triple X sequel, which featured the odd casting of Ice Cube, lured in just $4.2 million on its opening day for a $1,201 average in 3,480 theaters.

Though Bay produced the flick and saw success in the producing department with the Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake, as well as with the recent Amityville Horror remake, the lack of Bruckheimer is probably a big reason for Island?s big thud. For the past twenty years Bruckheimer has known how to market his movies to moviegoers for stellar results. With The Island, Warner Bros. desperately tried to make its audience aware that this was from the director of Armageddon and The Rock, very similar to when Fox shoved the Gladiator reference down television viewers? throats during Kingdom of Heaven commercials (and even Training Day with King Arthur).

However, McGregor and Johannson are not quite as hot as the screen presence of Bruce Willis (in Armageddon) and Sean Connery and Nicolas Cage (in Rock). But even despite the significant difference in star-power, it still doesn?t completely explain Island?s performance considering that Bay retrieved $28.1 million from Texas Chainsaw Massacre and $23.5 million from Amityville Horror in their opening weekends. Whatever the case, Bay might want to invite Bruckheimer back in the future if he wants to rebound. And in his next movie, the untitled Transformers project, Jerry won?t be onboard either. A weekend take of $13 - 14 million should be in store for The Island.

The remake of the Bad News Bears debuted modestly, bringing in $4.2 million for a $1,309/screen in 3,183 theaters. The fact that this low-key comedy opened just a hair below The Island (a big budget blow-em-up affair) is impressive but a bit embarrassing for the latter release. The kid picture still didn?t near director Richard Linklater?s previous comedy, School of Rock, which was aimed at the same crowd and grossed $6.0 million and $2,288 per-screen.

The setup for Bad News Bears was a little awkward, though. Billy Bob Thornton struck gold with the foul-mouthed Bad Santa (as it turned into a sleeper hit), and a similar tone was attempted here, but with a PG-13 rating the material is going to be restrained. Casting Thornton was no doubt an attempt to bring back some of that Santa audience, but with a comedy centered around kids (like Kicking & Screaming) and a guarantee that it can?t be too foul or push any envelopes, many teenagers and young adults will be turned off. And Thornton might?ve made various parents a little nervous considering the Bad Santa comparison. School of Rock was centered around kids and wasn?t foul, but the ads for it portrayed a sense of wit in the writing, and also showed off the chops of Jack Black, who you could tell had an easygoing, crowd-pleasing screen presence that parents wouldn?t have to be nervous about. Considering its summer release date, Bad News Bears may not receive much of a Saturday boost (high-20% range should be the peak) and may see a weekend take of about $12.0 million, on par with Bad Santa?s $12.3 million debut.

Rob Zombie returned to theaters following The House of 1000 Corpses with the massacre, The Devil?s Rejects. The flick turned in an all right $3.1 million considering its somewhat limited 1,757-theater release, averaging $1,746/screen. The figure doubled the opening of 1000 Corpses, which had grossed $1.4 million, though in only 595 theaters for a $2,365 average. Lions Gate couldn?t live up to the status of their twisted flick, Saw, which had opened with $6.7 million and averaged a strong $2,876/screen. Since Zombie is not necessarily a ?filmmaker? and his two movies have required a certain taste to enjoy them, his mainstream fan base is a bit limited (he might have a cult crowd). The chances of Devil?s Rejects increasing on Saturday are very slim, as a decline to roughly $2.5 could be in order, which should give the flick a weekend of around $7.0 million (or slightly under).

Paramount Classics and MTV Films saw good results from Hustle & Flow, as the film that won over Sundance collected $2.7 million in just 1,013 theaters for a $2,710 average. MTV Films has had a tendency to surprise with movies, most notably with Jackass, Orange County, and Save the Last Dance. Hustle & Flow performed in between Orange County and Last Dance on a per-screen average front and neared Coach Carter?s (which was also MTV) $3,129 average in 2,524 theaters. Since the film revolves around pimps and rap music (a combination that seemed like it would be golden in urban areas), it had a chance of surprising with a figure near $4,000/screen, close to Barbershop (which also starred Anthony Anderson). However, that comedy boasted a hot ensemble cast and an easy PG-13 rating, and the material was nowhere near as edgy in comparison. Hustle & Flow also stars Terrence Howard, who?s not very well known, but with help from MTV?s heavy promotion they were able to bring in a solid crowd willing to give him a shot. Hustle & Flow?s comparisons hint towards a high-20% range increase for Saturday, with the low-20% range likely to be the lower region. A weekend gross of $8.0 - 8.5 million could result.