Friday Box Office Analysis (7/15)

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory debuted right in line with War of the Worlds on Friday, as the Tim Burton remake delivered a powerful $20.8 million in 3,770 theaters for a $5,523 per-screen average. Although the figure is behind the $24.6 million ($7,032/screen) take of Burton?s last remake, Planet of the Apes, it blew Pirates of the Caribbean?s $14.8 million ($4,540/screen) Friday gross out of the water. In comparison, War of the Worlds grossed $21.9 million in its third day of release (Friday) for a $5,609 average in 3,908 theaters.

Charlie doesn?t have 4th of July weekend in its favor and so its Sunday holdup will probably not be as strong in comparison to War of the Worlds. A modest second day increase to $23 million could be in order, giving it a nice shot to crack $60 million for three days. The earning will be a little shy of the $68.6 million premiere of Planet of the Apes, but Burton might have faced a problem winning back some of his fans who deserted him after Apes disappointed. Also, with Charlie there was the possibility of being tortured by sentimental family material (whereas Pirates didn?t entirely have kids on its mind), as Apes was obviously going to be a darker movie in comparison. Some people also questioned the reasoning for a Willy Wonka remake, and if we are just going to be walking through the chocolate factory again in updated terms, there might not be much to get excited for. Regardless, Charlie seems to be pleasing moviegoers, and some even claim that it is better than the original.

Wedding Crashers debuted in line with expectations, bringing in $10.8 million for a $3,694 average in 2,925 theaters. For Vince Vaughn, the opening was slightly below Dodgeball, which captured $11.3 million ($4,205/screen), but it was the biggest bow yet for Owen Wilson as a leading man, whose previous record was set by Starsky & Hutch, which brought in $9.5 million ($2,991/screen). That comedy had the benefit of the rising popularity of Ben Stiller, as well as the notion that the director of Old School was behind it.

Wedding Crashers promised some foul-natured fun in the league of American Wedding, which premiered with $12.2 million and $3,855/screen, and Anchorman had delivered an equivalent $10.8 million ($3,480/screen). Both of these comedies fell on their second day, and Wedding Crashers should be no exception with the summer rush-out factor. A Saturday gross of $9.5 - 10.0 million could be in order, which should put the weekend at about $30 million.