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Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (July 1 - 3)
By Staff of LMI Published June 29, 2005
War of the Worlds has bigger names, but I don't think Spielberg brings out Matrix-like numbers. Some of his recent movies have been over-estimated...
Jason: WSEX (a bookmaker that analyzes tracking data to determine odds) has $107.5 million for the 5-day.
Lee: If you were to translate Jurassic Park today, it's $78.1 mil for 3-days, and for The Lost World $101.2 mil. Independence Day $73.1 mil
Jason: Well, I think even when you adjust box office for inflation, it's not always an accurate comparison. Especially given the Wednesday open.
Lee: I'd be tempted to go higher than $70 for 3-days except that Tom Cruise is not an epic draw. His highest opening is Mission: Impossible 2 at $57.8 mil
Jason: I'm looking at Spider-Man 2 with $88.2 for 3 days and $152.4 5-day, and Terminator 3, which pulled $44 and $72.4 million. This year does have an advantage, though, since July 4th is on a Monday while last year it was Sunday and it was Friday for T3.
Lee: Terminator 3 might have done more if it had more behind it, and if it were actually that great of a movie. James Cameron left and so did a few of the stars. War of the Worlds has bigger names, but I don't think Spielberg brings out Matrix-like numbers. Some of his recent movies have been over-estimated because you tend to say "it's a Spielberg movie," when really not everyone rushes out for him every time. I over-estimated Minority Report by $15 million. It was just a thriller, and thrillers generally don't go huge.
Jason: War of the Worlds seems like it has more commercial appeal than Minority Report. Despite the popularity of turning Philip Dick stories into movies, there hasn't been a great box office pay off. The WOTW story is a proven asset that continues to rake in the money.
Lee: Catch Me if You Can ($30.2 million) was more of a feel good film, and Artificial Intelligence ($29.3 million) had an edge. I think a pretty good comparison is The Day after Tomorrow at $68.8 mil ($20,073/screen). I see it being in between The Hulk ($62.1 mil. - $16,975/screen) and TDAT.
Jason: You don't think WOTW has a greater appeal than TDAT? I think an Alien is a better villian than natural weather phenomenon. That seemed like a remix of a remake.
Lee: I think WOTW will just beat it in 5-days with $100, or somewhere around there. What will be interesting is that WOTW might be more mature than DAT, and moviegoers don't always like mature material. Some have said the darker content in Batman could've turned off those who wanted a lighter movie.
Jason: How is it more mature? It seems like a more serious attempt at what ID4 attempted, but I never considered disaster movies or alien invasion stories as mature. I doubt the "dark" aspect of WOTW will turn off its core demographics. Tom Cruise's off screen antics are another thing.
Lee: Well it seems to have an actual story, whereas Day After Tomorrow was just an excuse to get to the action. And do people actually want something serious? That could be the difference between a big and epic debut. Independence Day was half action, half comedy, which is a crowd-pleaser formula, and the ads for War of the Worlds don't hint at such a formula. I'm not sure that this has the Jurassic Park feel to it. If War of the Worlds can't eclipse Batman Begins, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, or I Robot, it's going to be sad.
Jason: I'm a bit more optimistic than you are. What do you see for WOTW's Wednesday box office gross?
Lee: I would think WOTW should have a lot more appeal than Spielberg's recent ones because being about an alien invasion rather than just being a thriller gives it a big edge. $17 - 18 for Wednesday. My original prediction was $15.
Jason: Doesn't that seem rather low? I would be surprised to see those figures when the numbers are out on Thursday.
Lee: What would you put it at?
Jason: Well, just going with $107.5 5-day total, that's 70% of Spider-Man 2's total. I guess WOTW will be slightly less front-loaded and the Sunday will be relatively stronger, but 70% of Spider-Man 2's Wednesday would be around $28 million.
Lee: I just don't think Tom Cruise's appeal reaches those levels. There's room for records, but I just don't get that feeling from his past.
Jason: At $15 million on Wednesday, what would the 5-day be?
Lee: Around $90.
Jason: You don't think that would be a huge disappointment?
Lee: It's not far from $107. I'm at $67 and $100.
Jason: Spider-Man 2's weekday was 73% of the weekend and T3's was 64%. I think the $33 from Wednesday and Thursday would be too low compared with a $67 million 3-day. If it opened with $15 - $17 million, I don't know if it would come close to $67 million on the weekend even with the Monday holiday.
Lee: BOFC is at $70.6.
Jason: BOFC is usually too high. For movies budgeted at over $100 million, it's on average $5 million too high. (BOFC's accuracy is listed in the prediction section)
Lee: Well I'm in the $60 - 70 range. I don't think $100 for 5-days is disappointing.
Jason: I think if it made $70 million over the weekend, Wednesday and Thursday combined would be at least in the mid-$40s.
Lee: What's your Wed prediction?
Jason: I just changed my BOFC prediction to $64 million for the 3-day and around $108.8 million for the 5-day. That would mean a Wednesday of at least $23 million and assuming a great Thursday performance.
Lee: So you have Wednesday's gross higher than Friday's?
Jason: Yes. I used Spider-Man 2 as a model, but of course scaled it down and upped the Sunday. Just imagine how far behind 2005's box office will be if WOTW only grosses $90 million for the 5-day.
Any idea why Fox shoved Rebound in on Friday?
Lee: I don't watch much TV, but I haven't seen much of an ad-campaign. I still think it could do similarly to Lawrence's recent movies, though.
Jason: I've seen a big uptick in ads in the last few days, but it seems like it's too little too late. Which recent movies?
Lee: Black Knight did $11.1 million ($4,309/screen), National Security $14.4 ($5,269/screen), and in the genre, Like Mike pulled $12.0 million ($5,012/screen), and Fat Albert $10 ($3,748/screen) in 2 days.
Jason: I have a feeling this one won't crack $10 million.
Lee: I wouldn't be surprised.
Jason: This seems like a badly executed School of Rock, and that opened with $19.6 mil. and had good advertising. Besides the Monday holiday, I don't see anything going in Rebound's favor. I'm going to go with $8.5 million.
Did you see the King Kong trailer?
Lee: Yeah. King Kong looks neat, but I'm worried that it's going to take up to an hour to get to the island, which the trailer implies.
Jason: You think Jack Black was a good choice? It seems like the movie is being marketed as King Kong vs. Jurassic Park. It doesn't have any of the majestic qualities that Lord of the Rings had. Fans might attack me, but it looked a bit like a TV movie.
Lee: Jack Black reminded me a little of Brendan Fraser in Mummy. It should be his breakout.
Jason: I didn't see that at all. It felt like a bad fit, and the CGI didn't seem that impressive.
Lee: If you were to translate Jurassic Park today, it's $78.1 mil for 3-days, and for The Lost World $101.2 mil. Independence Day $73.1 mil
Jason: Well, I think even when you adjust box office for inflation, it's not always an accurate comparison. Especially given the Wednesday open.
Lee: I'd be tempted to go higher than $70 for 3-days except that Tom Cruise is not an epic draw. His highest opening is Mission: Impossible 2 at $57.8 mil
Jason: I'm looking at Spider-Man 2 with $88.2 for 3 days and $152.4 5-day, and Terminator 3, which pulled $44 and $72.4 million. This year does have an advantage, though, since July 4th is on a Monday while last year it was Sunday and it was Friday for T3.
Lee: Terminator 3 might have done more if it had more behind it, and if it were actually that great of a movie. James Cameron left and so did a few of the stars. War of the Worlds has bigger names, but I don't think Spielberg brings out Matrix-like numbers. Some of his recent movies have been over-estimated because you tend to say "it's a Spielberg movie," when really not everyone rushes out for him every time. I over-estimated Minority Report by $15 million. It was just a thriller, and thrillers generally don't go huge.
Jason: War of the Worlds seems like it has more commercial appeal than Minority Report. Despite the popularity of turning Philip Dick stories into movies, there hasn't been a great box office pay off. The WOTW story is a proven asset that continues to rake in the money.
Lee: Catch Me if You Can ($30.2 million) was more of a feel good film, and Artificial Intelligence ($29.3 million) had an edge. I think a pretty good comparison is The Day after Tomorrow at $68.8 mil ($20,073/screen). I see it being in between The Hulk ($62.1 mil. - $16,975/screen) and TDAT.
Jason: You don't think WOTW has a greater appeal than TDAT? I think an Alien is a better villian than natural weather phenomenon. That seemed like a remix of a remake.
Lee: I think WOTW will just beat it in 5-days with $100, or somewhere around there. What will be interesting is that WOTW might be more mature than DAT, and moviegoers don't always like mature material. Some have said the darker content in Batman could've turned off those who wanted a lighter movie.
Jason: How is it more mature? It seems like a more serious attempt at what ID4 attempted, but I never considered disaster movies or alien invasion stories as mature. I doubt the "dark" aspect of WOTW will turn off its core demographics. Tom Cruise's off screen antics are another thing.
Lee: Well it seems to have an actual story, whereas Day After Tomorrow was just an excuse to get to the action. And do people actually want something serious? That could be the difference between a big and epic debut. Independence Day was half action, half comedy, which is a crowd-pleaser formula, and the ads for War of the Worlds don't hint at such a formula. I'm not sure that this has the Jurassic Park feel to it. If War of the Worlds can't eclipse Batman Begins, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, or I Robot, it's going to be sad.
Jason: I'm a bit more optimistic than you are. What do you see for WOTW's Wednesday box office gross?
Lee: I would think WOTW should have a lot more appeal than Spielberg's recent ones because being about an alien invasion rather than just being a thriller gives it a big edge. $17 - 18 for Wednesday. My original prediction was $15.
Jason: Doesn't that seem rather low? I would be surprised to see those figures when the numbers are out on Thursday.
Lee: What would you put it at?
Jason: Well, just going with $107.5 5-day total, that's 70% of Spider-Man 2's total. I guess WOTW will be slightly less front-loaded and the Sunday will be relatively stronger, but 70% of Spider-Man 2's Wednesday would be around $28 million.
Lee: I just don't think Tom Cruise's appeal reaches those levels. There's room for records, but I just don't get that feeling from his past.
Jason: At $15 million on Wednesday, what would the 5-day be?
Lee: Around $90.
Jason: You don't think that would be a huge disappointment?
Lee: It's not far from $107. I'm at $67 and $100.
Jason: Spider-Man 2's weekday was 73% of the weekend and T3's was 64%. I think the $33 from Wednesday and Thursday would be too low compared with a $67 million 3-day. If it opened with $15 - $17 million, I don't know if it would come close to $67 million on the weekend even with the Monday holiday.
Lee: BOFC is at $70.6.
Jason: BOFC is usually too high. For movies budgeted at over $100 million, it's on average $5 million too high. (BOFC's accuracy is listed in the prediction section)
Lee: Well I'm in the $60 - 70 range. I don't think $100 for 5-days is disappointing.
Jason: I think if it made $70 million over the weekend, Wednesday and Thursday combined would be at least in the mid-$40s.
Lee: What's your Wed prediction?
Jason: I just changed my BOFC prediction to $64 million for the 3-day and around $108.8 million for the 5-day. That would mean a Wednesday of at least $23 million and assuming a great Thursday performance.
Lee: So you have Wednesday's gross higher than Friday's?
Jason: Yes. I used Spider-Man 2 as a model, but of course scaled it down and upped the Sunday. Just imagine how far behind 2005's box office will be if WOTW only grosses $90 million for the 5-day.
Any idea why Fox shoved Rebound in on Friday?
Lee: I don't watch much TV, but I haven't seen much of an ad-campaign. I still think it could do similarly to Lawrence's recent movies, though.
Jason: I've seen a big uptick in ads in the last few days, but it seems like it's too little too late. Which recent movies?
Lee: Black Knight did $11.1 million ($4,309/screen), National Security $14.4 ($5,269/screen), and in the genre, Like Mike pulled $12.0 million ($5,012/screen), and Fat Albert $10 ($3,748/screen) in 2 days.
Jason: I have a feeling this one won't crack $10 million.
Lee: I wouldn't be surprised.
Jason: This seems like a badly executed School of Rock, and that opened with $19.6 mil. and had good advertising. Besides the Monday holiday, I don't see anything going in Rebound's favor. I'm going to go with $8.5 million.
Did you see the King Kong trailer?
Lee: Yeah. King Kong looks neat, but I'm worried that it's going to take up to an hour to get to the island, which the trailer implies.
Jason: You think Jack Black was a good choice? It seems like the movie is being marketed as King Kong vs. Jurassic Park. It doesn't have any of the majestic qualities that Lord of the Rings had. Fans might attack me, but it looked a bit like a TV movie.
Lee: Jack Black reminded me a little of Brendan Fraser in Mummy. It should be his breakout.
Jason: I didn't see that at all. It felt like a bad fit, and the CGI didn't seem that impressive.
'War of the Worlds' Articles
- Scott's War of the Worlds review B
July 2, 2005 There's plenty of meat here for summer audiences to chew on, and the film-scholar types will collect food for thought as they would from any Spielberg picture. -- Scott Sycamore
