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Box office comparisons - Review: Justice League (C)
Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (June 10 - 12)
By Staff of LMI Published June 10, 2005
After such a long slump, the second half of June looks promising.
Jason:?The box office is in a slump, but it's not to the point where Mr. and Mrs. Smith won't crack $30 million
Jeremy: If that happens Hollywood execs will be throwing themselves off bridges. $24 million will be a bomb for Smith.
Jason:?It looks a lot more appealing than The Mexican, which opened to $20 million in 2001, and that was a March opening. I was thinking mid-$40s.
Jeremy: The Mexican had horrible marketing to boot and a much worse premise. I'm thinking it's about time the box office exceeded expectations, and I believe this could be the film to jumpstart it: $50 million for the weekend, similar opening to The Bourne Supremacy. The box office desperately needs a surefire film like Batman.
Jason:?Those two openings should be a decent jumpstart for 2005. They've got non-stop coverage by the tabloid for the Smiths. $50 million might be possible, but this weekend is historically weak. I think the premise and star power make up for that, but it's still something to keep in mind.
Jeremy: The non-stop tabloid gossip will assuredly bring people into the theaters, lots of people are interested to see how the chemistry is between Pitt and Jolie.
Jeremy: The premise seems to intrigue people, especially in light of the actual events between Jolie and Pitt.
Jason:?Last year, the top opener was Chronicles of Riddick and before that it was Rugrats and Dumb and Dumberer. Without a doubt, this year should have an edge on those past years.
Jeremy: This could finally be the weekend of victory for this year, plus good holdovers for Madagascar and Longest Yard. Madagascar will not drop more than 35% even in light of Lava Girl, the new opener.?Cinderella Man's drop should also be slim. I wonder if the Crowe incident will have any affect.
Jason:?I'm not sure how well Shark Boy and Lava Girl will do, but you have to give the benefit of the doubt to Robert Rodriguez. I didn't think Spy Kids 3D would work well, but that had the strength of two popular sequels.
Jeremy: The 3-D nature of Lava girl should be a huge appeal. I felt that that added greatly to the appeal of the third Spy Kids.
Jason:?The tracking isn't that strong at around $8 million or so, but kids movies can easily surprise.
Jeremy: Again, kids films are always hard to track I give it the benefit of the doubt, especially during the summer. Any kids film can open in the summer and cross $10 million. The market is almost always there.
Jason:?Yeah, look at Garfield last year. I think everyone was hoping it would bomb, but $21.7 million along with decent legs was impressive and well over $100 million internationally. Hard to argue with those numbers.
Jeremy:?It looked pathetic, but the positioning of the film was right and need was there for some sort of family entertainment. This year Madagascar clearly is playing well to the kids crowd, but there's plenty of space for Lava Girl.
Jason: Garfield was up against Shrek, so I think you're right.
Jeremy: Year after year it seems the scenarios always remain similar.?Hollywood execs read patterns and try to repeat them for success.
Jason:?What about the two smaller releases this weekend? The Honeymooners and High Tension.
Jeremy: Honeymooners is getting a lot of advertising on Nickelodeon.
Jason:?Why?That seems like a bad place to advertise.
Jeremy: Given its material, it seems entirely misplaced but Honeymooners used to be shown on Nick at Nite. Maybe they are hoping to attract the old audience that loved the original material.
Jason:?Oh, you're right, http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0042114/, but it still seems like a stretch. It doesn't seem any better than King's Ransom. King's Ransom grossed $2.1 million over the weekend, and will struggle to double that for its total. Maybe better star power, though.
Jeremy: I doubt many old people are going to see that film in light of the horrendous and pretty raunchy commercials. This will not be at the bomb level of King Ransom, but it won't push above $10 million. I would say $8 might be appropriate, it is getting close to 2000 theaters, 1912 is not a bad number.?A $4000 screen average would seem not only feasible but pretty likely for the summer.
Jeremy: High Tension, what do you think about that?
Jason:?I've seen quite a few ads for it and the ads are pretty good at hiding that it's not in English.
Jeremy: This for me is the most difficult pick of the week: a French import with the Lions Gate signature.
Jason: But they've done decently with strange horror movies.
Jeremy: That does not bode well. However, it is a horror movie and there have been fewer horror flicks recently and the market had seemed to open up for this film after months and months of bad horror movies. I'm sure that's why Lions Gate released it now. It's good timing.
Jason:?I wouldn't be surprised if it grossed close to $6 million.
Jeremy: So to sum up the weekend, it seems most of this weekend's films, according to our predictions, will exceed expectations. It would seem about time for this to happen with the box office. Mr. and Mrs. Smith has great potential to be a breakout hit because it appeals to most moviegoers, this is what a lot of tracking had been stating.?The two leading stars have the ability to attract all ages, and the action scenes promise a lot of excitement for teenagers. Smith even throws in Vince Vaughn for good measures to reel in even more teenagers.
Jason:?After such a long slump, this second half of June looks promising.
Jeremy: War of the Worlds looks to be a contender for a $300 million dollar grosser.
Jason: That's pretty speculative, I didn't mean that promising...
Jeremy:?I would be shocked if it did not make at least $250.
Jason:?I wouldn't say that yet.
Jeremy: It has the same feel of an ID4 but with bigger talent.
Jason: In the last few years, the 4th of July weekend openers have set huge expectations and usually not met them.
Jeremy: Let's face it, it is the same movie as ID4 just with a more talented director. Spider-Man came pretty damn close to meeting expectations.?That opening was clearly not a disappointment.
Jason:?I think a lot of expectations were higher.? $152 million over 5 days is great, but I remember hearing much higher predictions.
Jeremy: It showed even with the Wednesday opening that it could sustain big numbers throughout the weekend.
Jason: Let's wait until there's some data to go on before proclaiming it a surefire $300 million hit.
Jeremy: If that happens Hollywood execs will be throwing themselves off bridges. $24 million will be a bomb for Smith.
Jason:?It looks a lot more appealing than The Mexican, which opened to $20 million in 2001, and that was a March opening. I was thinking mid-$40s.
Jeremy: The Mexican had horrible marketing to boot and a much worse premise. I'm thinking it's about time the box office exceeded expectations, and I believe this could be the film to jumpstart it: $50 million for the weekend, similar opening to The Bourne Supremacy. The box office desperately needs a surefire film like Batman.
Jason:?Those two openings should be a decent jumpstart for 2005. They've got non-stop coverage by the tabloid for the Smiths. $50 million might be possible, but this weekend is historically weak. I think the premise and star power make up for that, but it's still something to keep in mind.
Jeremy: The non-stop tabloid gossip will assuredly bring people into the theaters, lots of people are interested to see how the chemistry is between Pitt and Jolie.
Jeremy: The premise seems to intrigue people, especially in light of the actual events between Jolie and Pitt.
Jason:?Last year, the top opener was Chronicles of Riddick and before that it was Rugrats and Dumb and Dumberer. Without a doubt, this year should have an edge on those past years.
Jeremy: This could finally be the weekend of victory for this year, plus good holdovers for Madagascar and Longest Yard. Madagascar will not drop more than 35% even in light of Lava Girl, the new opener.?Cinderella Man's drop should also be slim. I wonder if the Crowe incident will have any affect.
Jason:?I'm not sure how well Shark Boy and Lava Girl will do, but you have to give the benefit of the doubt to Robert Rodriguez. I didn't think Spy Kids 3D would work well, but that had the strength of two popular sequels.
Jeremy: The 3-D nature of Lava girl should be a huge appeal. I felt that that added greatly to the appeal of the third Spy Kids.
Jason:?The tracking isn't that strong at around $8 million or so, but kids movies can easily surprise.
Jeremy: Again, kids films are always hard to track I give it the benefit of the doubt, especially during the summer. Any kids film can open in the summer and cross $10 million. The market is almost always there.
Jason:?Yeah, look at Garfield last year. I think everyone was hoping it would bomb, but $21.7 million along with decent legs was impressive and well over $100 million internationally. Hard to argue with those numbers.
Jeremy:?It looked pathetic, but the positioning of the film was right and need was there for some sort of family entertainment. This year Madagascar clearly is playing well to the kids crowd, but there's plenty of space for Lava Girl.
Jason: Garfield was up against Shrek, so I think you're right.
Jeremy: Year after year it seems the scenarios always remain similar.?Hollywood execs read patterns and try to repeat them for success.
Jason:?What about the two smaller releases this weekend? The Honeymooners and High Tension.
Jeremy: Honeymooners is getting a lot of advertising on Nickelodeon.
Jason:?Why?That seems like a bad place to advertise.
Jeremy: Given its material, it seems entirely misplaced but Honeymooners used to be shown on Nick at Nite. Maybe they are hoping to attract the old audience that loved the original material.
Jason:?Oh, you're right, http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0042114/, but it still seems like a stretch. It doesn't seem any better than King's Ransom. King's Ransom grossed $2.1 million over the weekend, and will struggle to double that for its total. Maybe better star power, though.
Jeremy: I doubt many old people are going to see that film in light of the horrendous and pretty raunchy commercials. This will not be at the bomb level of King Ransom, but it won't push above $10 million. I would say $8 might be appropriate, it is getting close to 2000 theaters, 1912 is not a bad number.?A $4000 screen average would seem not only feasible but pretty likely for the summer.
Jeremy: High Tension, what do you think about that?
Jason:?I've seen quite a few ads for it and the ads are pretty good at hiding that it's not in English.
Jeremy: This for me is the most difficult pick of the week: a French import with the Lions Gate signature.
Jason: But they've done decently with strange horror movies.
Jeremy: That does not bode well. However, it is a horror movie and there have been fewer horror flicks recently and the market had seemed to open up for this film after months and months of bad horror movies. I'm sure that's why Lions Gate released it now. It's good timing.
Jason:?I wouldn't be surprised if it grossed close to $6 million.
Jeremy: So to sum up the weekend, it seems most of this weekend's films, according to our predictions, will exceed expectations. It would seem about time for this to happen with the box office. Mr. and Mrs. Smith has great potential to be a breakout hit because it appeals to most moviegoers, this is what a lot of tracking had been stating.?The two leading stars have the ability to attract all ages, and the action scenes promise a lot of excitement for teenagers. Smith even throws in Vince Vaughn for good measures to reel in even more teenagers.
Jason:?After such a long slump, this second half of June looks promising.
Jeremy: War of the Worlds looks to be a contender for a $300 million dollar grosser.
Jason: That's pretty speculative, I didn't mean that promising...
Jeremy:?I would be shocked if it did not make at least $250.
Jason:?I wouldn't say that yet.
Jeremy: It has the same feel of an ID4 but with bigger talent.
Jason: In the last few years, the 4th of July weekend openers have set huge expectations and usually not met them.
Jeremy: Let's face it, it is the same movie as ID4 just with a more talented director. Spider-Man came pretty damn close to meeting expectations.?That opening was clearly not a disappointment.
Jason:?I think a lot of expectations were higher.? $152 million over 5 days is great, but I remember hearing much higher predictions.
Jeremy: It showed even with the Wednesday opening that it could sustain big numbers throughout the weekend.
Jason: Let's wait until there's some data to go on before proclaiming it a surefire $300 million hit.
'Mr. and Mrs. Smith' Articles
- Scott's Mr. and Mrs. Smith review C
June 13, 2005 The scriptwriting is banal and frustrating; it's as if the suits at Fox purposely edited out anything that would give this movie cohesion or plausibility. -- Scott Sycamore - Craig's Mr. and Mrs. Smith review C+
June 11, 2005 I have to give it thumbs down on the fact that it didn't utilize the concept as well as it could have. -- Craig Younkin - Friday Box Office Analysis (6/10)
June 11, 2005 The blockbuster figure for Smith is extremely impressive given that Tomb Raider already had a giant built-in audience from the video game, and since then Jolie?s track record has not exactly been hot. -- Lee Tistaert
