Friday Box Office Analysis (6/3)

Cinderella Man didn?t pull a classic underdog victory on Friday, though the film should have solid staying power in the weeks to come (with the rave reviews and excellent audience reactions). The Ron Howard film opened to $6.1 million in 2,811 theaters, averaging $2,160 per-screen, which is a decent figure, but it placed fourth behind the third week of Revenge of the Sith, Madagascar, and The Longest Yard (which maintained its crowning position).

The film, starring Russell Crowe and Renee Zellweger, didn?t have the pull that Seabiscuit had, which launched to $6.4 million but in only 1,987 theaters for a much stronger $3,213 per-screen average. That film benefited from an attractive cast including Jeff Bridges, Chris Cooper, and Tobey Maguire, and a story that most people are aware of (even if it?s only the basics) due to the hugely success novel. Cinderella Man, on the other hand, focuses on a boxer who most people probably aren?t aware of. Ron Howard is also not the kind of filmmaker who immediately draws out crowds unless the star power is powerful (or the story is very well known like Apollo 13).

Cinderella Man is starting off similarly to last year?s boxing picture, Million Dollar Baby. While that film only had a weekend debut of $12.3 million, it eventually hit $100 million last month. Cinderella Man could end up following the path of The Terminal, which opened to $6.1 million ($2,187/screen) on its first day (and posted a $19.1 million weekend) and concluded its run with $77.0 million (both films also held sneak previews). The one thing that could keep Cinderella Man from hitting $100 million is its release date, as Million Dollar Baby opened in December and was smothered in Oscar buzz. The Manchurian Candidate, another summer film that relied on positive word of mouth, opened to $20.0 million in August and finished with $65.9 million. Cinderella Man should finish out the weekend just bordering the $20 million mark.

The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants debuted in the same vein as What a Girl Wants ($3.5 million - $1,181/screen) and Mona Lisa Smile ($4.3 million - $1,606/screen), taking in $3.8 million in its third day of release. The chick flick opened on Wednesday to $2.1 million, which hinted at roughly $4.5 million for Friday, but considering schools are starting to let out for summer, the Wednesday-to-Friday multiplier wasn?t as strong as it probably would be during another season. Saturday isn?t likely to see a strong boost, as a 10 - 20% incline could be on the way, which should give Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants a weekend take of about $11.0 million.

With no bankable stars and a questionable premise, Lords of Dogtown premiered with modest results, bringing in $2.7 million in 1,865 theaters for a $1,432 average. The opening day was on par with co-star Emile Hirsch?s last attempt, The Girl Next Door, which grossed $2.5 million and $1,149/screen. However, that comedy finished out the weekend with an embarrassing $6.0 million, and wrapped up its run with just $14.6 million. Heath Ledger hasn?t been doing any better, as the period piece picture, The Four Feathers, had landed a weekend debut of just $6.9 million and $3,560/screen in 1,912 theaters. Given that the movie/concept might have a limited audience, Lords of Dogtown could fall on Saturday, or rise, but the increase shouldn?t be much more than 10%. A weekend haul of nearly $8.0 million could result.