- Review: John Wick 3 (C)
Scott Sycamore - Weekend Box Office
May 17 - 19 - Crowd Reports
Avengers: Endgame - Us
Box office comparisons - Review: Justice League (C)
Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (June 3 - 5)
By Staff of LMI Published June 3, 2005
It's looking like low $20's is a pretty good bet and high $20's will probably be the long shot...or perhaps the classic underdog turnout.
Lee: It seems that Seabiscuit is the classic comparison for Cinderella Man.
Jason: Yeah, with the screening having been a huge success, it looks like it will have great legs, although some of the tracking has it opening a bit stronger than Seabiscuit.
Lee: Universal is pretty confident with 2,811 theaters, compared to 1,987 for Seabiscuit. I think that's going to dampen the per-screen average. And I think Jeff Bridges, Chris Cooper, and Tobey Maguire have more of a pull over Crowe and Zellweger.
Jason: Master & Commander showed that Russell Crowe had a lot of pull of his own, especially since it went on to gross $94 million. That was in November as well, not December, when box office legs aren't that great, but it did have 3,101 theaters and a huge budget to cover.
Lee: Road to Perdition opened to $22.1 million and $12,287/screen in 1,797 theaters. But it also had a great cast (Tom Hanks, Paul Newman, Jude Law) and the American Beauty reference. I'm basically comparing averages.
Jason: I heard someone remark that the title could hurt the box office for Cinderella Man. I hadn't thought about it before, but I could imagine that it might turn someone off who didn't know much about movies.
Lee: As well known as he is, I don?t think Ron Howard is a filmmaker most moviegoers rush out for. This isn't like Apollo 13 (which also had Hanks) where almost everyone knew the story and would love to see the cast take it on. I would bet most people don't know who Jim Braddock is. I wouldn't have known who he was if it weren't for this movie. And most people know the basics of Seabiscuit. But word of mouth is definitely going to drive it.
Jason: I suspect even if it does open in the low $20s, it will still easily cross $100 million.
Lee: The audience at the sneak preview was absolutely sold on the movie. They loved it. I liked it, but it pulled no surprises on me.
Jason: Not many films get 98% good or excellent on the exit poll, especially in the summer. Just look at the strength of Crash. We questioned the release strategy, but it looks like its paying off for Lions Gate.
Lee: I'm also comparing to Erin Brockovich, which was also very well received. That did $27.9 million and $9,801/screen, but that was Julia Roberts.
Jason: I think Erin Brockovich had more buzz, and Julia Roberts is definitely a bigger draw.
Lee: I think A Beautiful Mind's first wide release weekend in terms of average is a pretty good comparison: $8,895 in 1,853 - $16.5 million.
Jason: Regardless of how well Cinderella Man opens, this weekend is only going to put 2005 further behind 2004. Last year, there was Harry Potter and the top 10 was at $182 million. And two years before, it was 2 Fast 2 Furious. I'll go with $23.5 million for Cinderella Man.
Lee: It's looking like low $20's is a pretty good bet and high $20's will probably be the long shot...or perhaps the classic underdog turnout.
Jason: It's about in line with WSEX and HSX.
Lee: It would sort of fit into character if it didn't top the box office.
Jason: Yeah and then came from behind to crack $125 million. It seems that advance screenings usually dampen the opening weekend, but greatly help the legs. Although, it's usually good movies that get the advance screenings.
Lee: It's usually a sign that the studio knows audiences will really respond to it. I mean when you have a film like Seabiscuit or Cinderella Man, you just know audiences are going to fall for it emotionally.
Part of me thinks Lords of Dogtown could beat Sisterhood of the Pants, and part of me says dream on.
Jason: I doubt it. I'm not sure it Lords of Dogtown will make half of your prediction. I think your prediction for Sisterhood is spot on.
Lee: I don't think the movie has much star-power on its hands, but it seems to be in the same league as Biker Boyz ($10.1 million - $5,722/screen), Blue Crush ($14.2 million - $4,720/screen), Varsity Blues ($14.7 million - $6,930/screen), and Coyote Ugly ($17.4 million - $6,528/screen).
Jason: Given Wednesday's box office, $12 million seems like it's going to be close.
Lee: But Emile Hirsch bombed last year with Girl Next Door, which opened to $6.0 million.
Jason: For Dogtown, I was thinking Grind ($2.5 million - $1,113/screen).
Lee: And Heath Ledger didn't exactly open The Four Feathers ($6.9 million - $3,560/screen), but that was also a teen period piece, which has got to be an awkward sell. I've seen an ad-campaign for this, though. Grind's campaign was sketchy.
Jason: It seems like Sisterhood has a devoted and loyal fan base; Dogtown's fan base is questionable.
Lee: Hirsch was in Emperor's Club and that did $3.8 million but in only 809 theaters. Sisterhood of the Pants reminds me of a Ya-Ya Sisterhood for teenage girls.
Jason: You could argue that Dogtown is a better sell than Grind, but it seems to fit the same model.
Lee: Grind was also end of the summer, which is a box office dumping ground.
Jason: This weekend is a big void. Without a Harry Potter or 2 Fast 2 Furious, it's not like this weekend couldn't be used as a dumping ground.
Lee: I think this is the biggest wildcard of the weekend. It doesn't have bankable stars, doesn't have a premise that jumps out at you, has a director who is only known for an art house movie (Thirteen), and yet it is the kind of film that once in a while surprises, a la You Got Served ($16.1 million - $8,341/screen in 1,933 theaters).
Jason: This is not You Got Served. I'm going with $6 million.
Lee: 1,865 theaters could be a sign of weakness, but I get a solid per-screen average feel from it.
Jason: Why?
Lee: I guess it's more of a gut instinct.
Jason: The tracking at WSEX is at $8.5 and HSX has $10.3. I think that's a bit optimistic. If there is any audience that would skip a movie and get it on DVD, it's probably Dogtown's audience.
Lee: What about Sisterhood...beyond the obvious direction that Wednesday hints at.
Jason: I'd put it at $11 - 12 million.
Lee: It's right up there with Uptown Girls ($11.3 million), Never Been Kissed($13.5 million), A Cinderella Story ($13.6 million), and Crossroads ($14.5 million) on the whole cute level, and The Notebook ($13.5 million). I'd even say this is the girls' version of Without a Paddle ($13.5 million).
Jason: Without a Paddle is probably a big insult to Sisterhood.
Lee: Well, minus all the slapstick. But Paddle was a trio of guys, and this is a group of girls. The movie is also surprisingly getting decent reviews.
Jason: Around the World in 80 Days opened on a Wednesday and had around a 5.3 multiplier. If you use the 80 Days multiplier, which is probably not the best comparison, but I just looked at a June Wednesday release and it would be around $11.7 million.
Lee: I thought of that too, but the dailies are not a great guide. I would've had Rock School in the low $10,000-average range if it was in around 10 theaters or so. 32 theaters could make it dip under $10k. I had been comparing to Super Size Me, which averaged $12,601 in 41 theaters.
Jason: What about next weekend? Mr. and Mrs. Smith looks like the True Lies 2 that could never get greenlit. The audiences I've seen the trailer with have responded well to it.
Lee: They're trying to milk out its infamous sexual material for buzz. And I hate to get pulled into the tabloids, but I have to say it has gotten me curious. I just really don't want to pay to see the movie.
Jason: I wonder how well Howl's Moving Castle will do. Disney has yet to really cash in on these huge Japanese blockbusters. It has made over $200 million internationally.
Lee: 35 theaters should probably dampen the average, although Spirited Away had 26 theaters.
Jason: Spirited Away went on to gross $10 million. That?s impressive, but I think everyone expected a bit more.
Jason: Yeah, with the screening having been a huge success, it looks like it will have great legs, although some of the tracking has it opening a bit stronger than Seabiscuit.
Lee: Universal is pretty confident with 2,811 theaters, compared to 1,987 for Seabiscuit. I think that's going to dampen the per-screen average. And I think Jeff Bridges, Chris Cooper, and Tobey Maguire have more of a pull over Crowe and Zellweger.
Jason: Master & Commander showed that Russell Crowe had a lot of pull of his own, especially since it went on to gross $94 million. That was in November as well, not December, when box office legs aren't that great, but it did have 3,101 theaters and a huge budget to cover.
Lee: Road to Perdition opened to $22.1 million and $12,287/screen in 1,797 theaters. But it also had a great cast (Tom Hanks, Paul Newman, Jude Law) and the American Beauty reference. I'm basically comparing averages.
Jason: I heard someone remark that the title could hurt the box office for Cinderella Man. I hadn't thought about it before, but I could imagine that it might turn someone off who didn't know much about movies.
Lee: As well known as he is, I don?t think Ron Howard is a filmmaker most moviegoers rush out for. This isn't like Apollo 13 (which also had Hanks) where almost everyone knew the story and would love to see the cast take it on. I would bet most people don't know who Jim Braddock is. I wouldn't have known who he was if it weren't for this movie. And most people know the basics of Seabiscuit. But word of mouth is definitely going to drive it.
Jason: I suspect even if it does open in the low $20s, it will still easily cross $100 million.
Lee: The audience at the sneak preview was absolutely sold on the movie. They loved it. I liked it, but it pulled no surprises on me.
Jason: Not many films get 98% good or excellent on the exit poll, especially in the summer. Just look at the strength of Crash. We questioned the release strategy, but it looks like its paying off for Lions Gate.
Lee: I'm also comparing to Erin Brockovich, which was also very well received. That did $27.9 million and $9,801/screen, but that was Julia Roberts.
Jason: I think Erin Brockovich had more buzz, and Julia Roberts is definitely a bigger draw.
Lee: I think A Beautiful Mind's first wide release weekend in terms of average is a pretty good comparison: $8,895 in 1,853 - $16.5 million.
Jason: Regardless of how well Cinderella Man opens, this weekend is only going to put 2005 further behind 2004. Last year, there was Harry Potter and the top 10 was at $182 million. And two years before, it was 2 Fast 2 Furious. I'll go with $23.5 million for Cinderella Man.
Lee: It's looking like low $20's is a pretty good bet and high $20's will probably be the long shot...or perhaps the classic underdog turnout.
Jason: It's about in line with WSEX and HSX.
Lee: It would sort of fit into character if it didn't top the box office.
Jason: Yeah and then came from behind to crack $125 million. It seems that advance screenings usually dampen the opening weekend, but greatly help the legs. Although, it's usually good movies that get the advance screenings.
Lee: It's usually a sign that the studio knows audiences will really respond to it. I mean when you have a film like Seabiscuit or Cinderella Man, you just know audiences are going to fall for it emotionally.
Part of me thinks Lords of Dogtown could beat Sisterhood of the Pants, and part of me says dream on.
Jason: I doubt it. I'm not sure it Lords of Dogtown will make half of your prediction. I think your prediction for Sisterhood is spot on.
Lee: I don't think the movie has much star-power on its hands, but it seems to be in the same league as Biker Boyz ($10.1 million - $5,722/screen), Blue Crush ($14.2 million - $4,720/screen), Varsity Blues ($14.7 million - $6,930/screen), and Coyote Ugly ($17.4 million - $6,528/screen).
Jason: Given Wednesday's box office, $12 million seems like it's going to be close.
Lee: But Emile Hirsch bombed last year with Girl Next Door, which opened to $6.0 million.
Jason: For Dogtown, I was thinking Grind ($2.5 million - $1,113/screen).
Lee: And Heath Ledger didn't exactly open The Four Feathers ($6.9 million - $3,560/screen), but that was also a teen period piece, which has got to be an awkward sell. I've seen an ad-campaign for this, though. Grind's campaign was sketchy.
Jason: It seems like Sisterhood has a devoted and loyal fan base; Dogtown's fan base is questionable.
Lee: Hirsch was in Emperor's Club and that did $3.8 million but in only 809 theaters. Sisterhood of the Pants reminds me of a Ya-Ya Sisterhood for teenage girls.
Jason: You could argue that Dogtown is a better sell than Grind, but it seems to fit the same model.
Lee: Grind was also end of the summer, which is a box office dumping ground.
Jason: This weekend is a big void. Without a Harry Potter or 2 Fast 2 Furious, it's not like this weekend couldn't be used as a dumping ground.
Lee: I think this is the biggest wildcard of the weekend. It doesn't have bankable stars, doesn't have a premise that jumps out at you, has a director who is only known for an art house movie (Thirteen), and yet it is the kind of film that once in a while surprises, a la You Got Served ($16.1 million - $8,341/screen in 1,933 theaters).
Jason: This is not You Got Served. I'm going with $6 million.
Lee: 1,865 theaters could be a sign of weakness, but I get a solid per-screen average feel from it.
Jason: Why?
Lee: I guess it's more of a gut instinct.
Jason: The tracking at WSEX is at $8.5 and HSX has $10.3. I think that's a bit optimistic. If there is any audience that would skip a movie and get it on DVD, it's probably Dogtown's audience.
Lee: What about Sisterhood...beyond the obvious direction that Wednesday hints at.
Jason: I'd put it at $11 - 12 million.
Lee: It's right up there with Uptown Girls ($11.3 million), Never Been Kissed($13.5 million), A Cinderella Story ($13.6 million), and Crossroads ($14.5 million) on the whole cute level, and The Notebook ($13.5 million). I'd even say this is the girls' version of Without a Paddle ($13.5 million).
Jason: Without a Paddle is probably a big insult to Sisterhood.
Lee: Well, minus all the slapstick. But Paddle was a trio of guys, and this is a group of girls. The movie is also surprisingly getting decent reviews.
Jason: Around the World in 80 Days opened on a Wednesday and had around a 5.3 multiplier. If you use the 80 Days multiplier, which is probably not the best comparison, but I just looked at a June Wednesday release and it would be around $11.7 million.
Lee: I thought of that too, but the dailies are not a great guide. I would've had Rock School in the low $10,000-average range if it was in around 10 theaters or so. 32 theaters could make it dip under $10k. I had been comparing to Super Size Me, which averaged $12,601 in 41 theaters.
Jason: What about next weekend? Mr. and Mrs. Smith looks like the True Lies 2 that could never get greenlit. The audiences I've seen the trailer with have responded well to it.
Lee: They're trying to milk out its infamous sexual material for buzz. And I hate to get pulled into the tabloids, but I have to say it has gotten me curious. I just really don't want to pay to see the movie.
Jason: I wonder how well Howl's Moving Castle will do. Disney has yet to really cash in on these huge Japanese blockbusters. It has made over $200 million internationally.
Lee: 35 theaters should probably dampen the average, although Spirited Away had 26 theaters.
Jason: Spirited Away went on to gross $10 million. That?s impressive, but I think everyone expected a bit more.
'Cinderella Man' Articles
- Craig's Cinderella Man review A
June 4, 2005 Cinderella Man is a gem of an underdog story that will leave you feeling as high as a kite. -- Craig Younkin - Friday Box Office Analysis (6/3)
June 4, 2005 Cinderella Man could end up following the path of The Terminal, which opened to $6.1 million on its first day (and posted a $19.1 million weekend) and concluded its run with $77.0 million. -- Lee Tistaert
