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Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (May 13 - 15)
By Staff of LMI Published May 13, 2005
Lopez will target the young girls and young women, and Fonda will get the 45+ crowd, not to mention the built-in audiences for wedding-related flicks.
Lee: $19.6 million was quite an embarrassing start for the opening of summer, especially for Ridley Scott.
Jason: Even though we both predicted a weak opening, it was still surprising to see $20 million on Sunday.
Lee: The fact that it didn't hit $20, even though it was extremely close, kind of makes it more sad.
Jason: And I knew when the estimate was $20.0, the finals weren't going to go up. That estimate was designed so all the headlines would have Kingdom hits $20 million, which looks a lot better than $19.6.
Lee: House of Wax was quite a surprise. You'd think all the teenagers would be out for Paris. But it did lack a cast beyond her.
Jason: It's strange that Boogeyman and White Noise had bigger openings than Kingdom of Heaven. Yeah, I misjudged the appeal on House of Wax.
Lee: I had compared House of Wax's trailer to Taking Lives, and figured a gross like that just wasn't going to happen. It only opened a notch above Cursed, which didn't have a cast either.
Jason: Another disappointment for Elisha Cuthbert. She probably should have stuck with 24.
Lee: I think some people are questioning my #1 placement this weekend, but I really don't think it's going to be hard for it to happen.
Jason: The tracking seems to hint at that.
Lee: As I've been saying for a few weeks, don't under-estimate the power of middle age women. If they thought The Wedding Date looked cute, this has got to look hysterical. And it has a really smooth setup: Lopez will target the young girls and young women, and Fonda will get the 45+ crowd, not to mention the built-in audiences for wedding-related flicks.
Jason: Jennifer Lopez doesn't have a great record for opening weekends.
Lee: This is the widest release for her.
Jason: I was surprised to see 3400 theaters for both new releases this weekend.
Lee: Maid in Manhattan averaged $2,300 on opening day in 2,838 theaters. With the theater bookings around here, I'd be surprised if this dips below $2,000.
Jason: That does seem like a positive indication. Monster in Law probably has equal if not greater appeal than Maid.
Lee: It's looking something like The Terminal ($19.1 million), The Mexican ($20.1 million), Notting Hill ($21.8 million), and The Stepford Wives ($21.4 million).
Jason: Monster has the additional comedic benefit of Wanda Sykes.
Lee: Stepford Wives had appeal of young and older women. This just doesn't have a Nicole Kidman.
Jason: And I'm guessing the backlash to Jane Fonda will be minimal. Anyone who hates her probably wouldn't want to see this type of movie anyway.
Lee: It would be logical to say that this would be counter-programming to the big summer movies, but that argument was killed after Kingdom of Heaven.
Jason: It seems like a $20 million opening with 3400 theaters is low compared to the openings in 2004. 13 Going on 30 ($21.1 million) was the lowest grossing movie with over 3400 theaters.
Lee: I've heard predictions in the mid-to-high-$20's. I don't see that happening with the bookings around here.
Jason: This year, XXX2 sort of ruined that lower thresh-hold.
Lee: You could say that Michael Vartan isn't a marketable name, but I'd argue that Ralph Fiennes wasn't really a name in Maid in Manhattan. Who showed up for him? It's like with Robert Duvall in Kicking & Screaming.
Jason: It seems that Monster-in-Law's story is better tested than Kicking & Screaming.
Lee: Kicking & Screaming is an oddball.
Jason: Who thought Dodgeball would be a good subject, but the trailers for that seemed a bit more intriguing than Kicking and Screaming.
Lee: I was confident in a strong opening when I saw it back in December, but it seems there has barely been an ad-campaign for it, and I don't see the big selling points beyond that this is Will Ferrell being goofy.
Jason: I didn't see anything that was very funny in the trailer.
Lee: Anchorman ($28.4 million) and Elf ($31.1 million) had obvious selling points in the ads. I thought the movie was enjoyable and I thought the trailers were pretty dull. The first one was nearly bad.
Jason: Without Ferrell, would this movie be getting a wide release?
Lee: They've been marketing it as a family movie, which could interfere with its potential.
Jason: Looks like they're aiming for Daddy Day Care ($27.6 million). Someone is confident in it.
Lee: Ferrell isn't Eddie Murphy. Murphy was working off Dr. Dolittle. I think the one thing that could put it over School of Rock ($19.6 million) is the theater count. Rock had a solid trailer, selling points, and it was Jack Black's first big role.
Jason: 3400 theaters is not a lock for a big opening, although the box office has been awful recently.
Lee: I can see how many people could look at Kicking and say, what is Ferrell doing here that he hasn't done for the past 3 movies. People like him, but through the ads it just feels like a rehash of the past. Theater bookings suggest something like The Rundown ($18.5 million) and Friday Night Lights ($20.3 million) is possible.
Jason: The movie is better than the trailer, though?
Lee: I thought so, but I can be easy to please when it comes to Ferrell. It looks like it?s missing The Pacifier?s components. This is the same-old Ferrell again, whereas that was Vin Diesel trying something different, let alone the power of Disney. But Universal is also good at box office.
Jason: Yeah, I didn't feel that the trailer made Ferrell look that ridiculous as a coach. A little kid attacking him just didn't seem funny.
Lee: I couldn't believe someone actually let Robert Duvall be in the movie.
Jason: Was he that bad?
Lee: He just looks out of place, and he's just too old for the part.
Jason: They must have figured that out in the test screenings, because he?s not a big presence in the ads.
Lee: When I saw the trailers I was like, wow, our audience must have been on the same page as me. They must've said the same thing on the exit poll. With The Rundown, there were probably moviegoers who would show up for Christopher Walken. Duvall kind of gives this movie an old-people feel, which you don't want in a comedy like this. What are you at for the weekend?
Jason: The box office is looking pretty pathetic at this point. Your top 5 only gets to $64.8 million versus $100.6 for the top 10 last year (with Troy at #1) and $150 (with Matrix #1). I guess those weekends are better comparisons for next weekend.
Lee: Duvall was in Secondhand Lions and that opened to $12.1 million, and it was also aimed at families.
Jason: Daddy Day Care seems to be the best case scenario for Kicking and Screaming. A Secondhand Lions type opening would be awful.
Lee: The title card in the trailers has always looked pathetic to me for Kicking. It looks so amateurish.
Jason: WSEX has $21.5 million, so the tracking must be decent. I hate to have it open with more than Kingdom of Heaven.
Lee: I'm at exactly $21. The last minute ad-campaign does remind me of Fever Pitch ($12.4 million).
Jason: HSX is at $22.9 million.
Lee: You'd think the campaign should've been around for a while.
Jason: Monster-in-Law has less of a consensus: You have close to $21, WSEX has $20, BOFC has $18.9, and HSX has $15.9. I'd have to guess there's a male bias involved with HSX's predicted amount, although HSX has overall been more accurate with openings. HSX was closest for Miss Congeniality.
Lee: Something tells me Kicking could surprise on the low side. It's like with Kingdom and House of Wax, I did think it was strange if those two movies had similar buzz factors.
Jason: You really under-predicted Wedding Date. I'll agree with you on Monster at #1 just because I dislike the Kicking & Screaming trailer, and I realize the strength of Maid in Manhattan.
Lee: If Kicking pulls Fever Pitch's averages, that's $15 mil.
Jason: Intertops says 5:1 that it will not open that low.
Lee: Many didn't expect 3,264 theaters for that, and 3457 seems a bit much for this.
Jason: What about Unleashed?
Lee: The comparisons I have are Black Mask ($4.5 million), The Transporter ($9.1 million - $3,540/screen), Kiss of the Dragon ($13.3 million - $6,570/screen), and The One ($19.1 million - $6,456/screen). Three of those 4 are just for the per-screen average.
Jason: Tracking is around $9 million.
Lee: 1955 theaters makes me question its potential. Rogue Pictures released Seed of Chucky at $8.8 million, and Assault on Precinct 13 at $6.5. Chucky had a built-in audience.
Jason: And of course the Dimension classic, Mindhunters
Lee: How can you go wrong when you have Christian Slater, Val Kilmer, and LL Cool J in the same movie.
Jason: Upcoming Movies shows at least 10 release date changes.
Lee: Considering the amount of release date changes, and the names in the movie, and then seeing only 1,040 theaters, is it theoretically possible for this to not flop? Suspect Zero ($3.4 million) might have had more going for it. And Val Kilmer had Spartan, which only did $2.0 million in 832 theaters. Rollerball did $9.0 million, and LL Cool J was in that.
Jason: The trailer doesn't look that bad.
Lee: That's what I said. It just looks very mediocre.
Jason: It seems like if they had marketed it well 2 years ago, it might have opened with $15.
Lee: Mad Hot Ballroom opens in limited release. I saw it earlier in the year. At the time I was predicting a Spellbound following, but I'm not sure if people know about it.
Jason: Even though we both predicted a weak opening, it was still surprising to see $20 million on Sunday.
Lee: The fact that it didn't hit $20, even though it was extremely close, kind of makes it more sad.
Jason: And I knew when the estimate was $20.0, the finals weren't going to go up. That estimate was designed so all the headlines would have Kingdom hits $20 million, which looks a lot better than $19.6.
Lee: House of Wax was quite a surprise. You'd think all the teenagers would be out for Paris. But it did lack a cast beyond her.
Jason: It's strange that Boogeyman and White Noise had bigger openings than Kingdom of Heaven. Yeah, I misjudged the appeal on House of Wax.
Lee: I had compared House of Wax's trailer to Taking Lives, and figured a gross like that just wasn't going to happen. It only opened a notch above Cursed, which didn't have a cast either.
Jason: Another disappointment for Elisha Cuthbert. She probably should have stuck with 24.
Lee: I think some people are questioning my #1 placement this weekend, but I really don't think it's going to be hard for it to happen.
Jason: The tracking seems to hint at that.
Lee: As I've been saying for a few weeks, don't under-estimate the power of middle age women. If they thought The Wedding Date looked cute, this has got to look hysterical. And it has a really smooth setup: Lopez will target the young girls and young women, and Fonda will get the 45+ crowd, not to mention the built-in audiences for wedding-related flicks.
Jason: Jennifer Lopez doesn't have a great record for opening weekends.
Lee: This is the widest release for her.
Jason: I was surprised to see 3400 theaters for both new releases this weekend.
Lee: Maid in Manhattan averaged $2,300 on opening day in 2,838 theaters. With the theater bookings around here, I'd be surprised if this dips below $2,000.
Jason: That does seem like a positive indication. Monster in Law probably has equal if not greater appeal than Maid.
Lee: It's looking something like The Terminal ($19.1 million), The Mexican ($20.1 million), Notting Hill ($21.8 million), and The Stepford Wives ($21.4 million).
Jason: Monster has the additional comedic benefit of Wanda Sykes.
Lee: Stepford Wives had appeal of young and older women. This just doesn't have a Nicole Kidman.
Jason: And I'm guessing the backlash to Jane Fonda will be minimal. Anyone who hates her probably wouldn't want to see this type of movie anyway.
Lee: It would be logical to say that this would be counter-programming to the big summer movies, but that argument was killed after Kingdom of Heaven.
Jason: It seems like a $20 million opening with 3400 theaters is low compared to the openings in 2004. 13 Going on 30 ($21.1 million) was the lowest grossing movie with over 3400 theaters.
Lee: I've heard predictions in the mid-to-high-$20's. I don't see that happening with the bookings around here.
Jason: This year, XXX2 sort of ruined that lower thresh-hold.
Lee: You could say that Michael Vartan isn't a marketable name, but I'd argue that Ralph Fiennes wasn't really a name in Maid in Manhattan. Who showed up for him? It's like with Robert Duvall in Kicking & Screaming.
Jason: It seems that Monster-in-Law's story is better tested than Kicking & Screaming.
Lee: Kicking & Screaming is an oddball.
Jason: Who thought Dodgeball would be a good subject, but the trailers for that seemed a bit more intriguing than Kicking and Screaming.
Lee: I was confident in a strong opening when I saw it back in December, but it seems there has barely been an ad-campaign for it, and I don't see the big selling points beyond that this is Will Ferrell being goofy.
Jason: I didn't see anything that was very funny in the trailer.
Lee: Anchorman ($28.4 million) and Elf ($31.1 million) had obvious selling points in the ads. I thought the movie was enjoyable and I thought the trailers were pretty dull. The first one was nearly bad.
Jason: Without Ferrell, would this movie be getting a wide release?
Lee: They've been marketing it as a family movie, which could interfere with its potential.
Jason: Looks like they're aiming for Daddy Day Care ($27.6 million). Someone is confident in it.
Lee: Ferrell isn't Eddie Murphy. Murphy was working off Dr. Dolittle. I think the one thing that could put it over School of Rock ($19.6 million) is the theater count. Rock had a solid trailer, selling points, and it was Jack Black's first big role.
Jason: 3400 theaters is not a lock for a big opening, although the box office has been awful recently.
Lee: I can see how many people could look at Kicking and say, what is Ferrell doing here that he hasn't done for the past 3 movies. People like him, but through the ads it just feels like a rehash of the past. Theater bookings suggest something like The Rundown ($18.5 million) and Friday Night Lights ($20.3 million) is possible.
Jason: The movie is better than the trailer, though?
Lee: I thought so, but I can be easy to please when it comes to Ferrell. It looks like it?s missing The Pacifier?s components. This is the same-old Ferrell again, whereas that was Vin Diesel trying something different, let alone the power of Disney. But Universal is also good at box office.
Jason: Yeah, I didn't feel that the trailer made Ferrell look that ridiculous as a coach. A little kid attacking him just didn't seem funny.
Lee: I couldn't believe someone actually let Robert Duvall be in the movie.
Jason: Was he that bad?
Lee: He just looks out of place, and he's just too old for the part.
Jason: They must have figured that out in the test screenings, because he?s not a big presence in the ads.
Lee: When I saw the trailers I was like, wow, our audience must have been on the same page as me. They must've said the same thing on the exit poll. With The Rundown, there were probably moviegoers who would show up for Christopher Walken. Duvall kind of gives this movie an old-people feel, which you don't want in a comedy like this. What are you at for the weekend?
Jason: The box office is looking pretty pathetic at this point. Your top 5 only gets to $64.8 million versus $100.6 for the top 10 last year (with Troy at #1) and $150 (with Matrix #1). I guess those weekends are better comparisons for next weekend.
Lee: Duvall was in Secondhand Lions and that opened to $12.1 million, and it was also aimed at families.
Jason: Daddy Day Care seems to be the best case scenario for Kicking and Screaming. A Secondhand Lions type opening would be awful.
Lee: The title card in the trailers has always looked pathetic to me for Kicking. It looks so amateurish.
Jason: WSEX has $21.5 million, so the tracking must be decent. I hate to have it open with more than Kingdom of Heaven.
Lee: I'm at exactly $21. The last minute ad-campaign does remind me of Fever Pitch ($12.4 million).
Jason: HSX is at $22.9 million.
Lee: You'd think the campaign should've been around for a while.
Jason: Monster-in-Law has less of a consensus: You have close to $21, WSEX has $20, BOFC has $18.9, and HSX has $15.9. I'd have to guess there's a male bias involved with HSX's predicted amount, although HSX has overall been more accurate with openings. HSX was closest for Miss Congeniality.
Lee: Something tells me Kicking could surprise on the low side. It's like with Kingdom and House of Wax, I did think it was strange if those two movies had similar buzz factors.
Jason: You really under-predicted Wedding Date. I'll agree with you on Monster at #1 just because I dislike the Kicking & Screaming trailer, and I realize the strength of Maid in Manhattan.
Lee: If Kicking pulls Fever Pitch's averages, that's $15 mil.
Jason: Intertops says 5:1 that it will not open that low.
Lee: Many didn't expect 3,264 theaters for that, and 3457 seems a bit much for this.
Jason: What about Unleashed?
Lee: The comparisons I have are Black Mask ($4.5 million), The Transporter ($9.1 million - $3,540/screen), Kiss of the Dragon ($13.3 million - $6,570/screen), and The One ($19.1 million - $6,456/screen). Three of those 4 are just for the per-screen average.
Jason: Tracking is around $9 million.
Lee: 1955 theaters makes me question its potential. Rogue Pictures released Seed of Chucky at $8.8 million, and Assault on Precinct 13 at $6.5. Chucky had a built-in audience.
Jason: And of course the Dimension classic, Mindhunters
Lee: How can you go wrong when you have Christian Slater, Val Kilmer, and LL Cool J in the same movie.
Jason: Upcoming Movies shows at least 10 release date changes.
Lee: Considering the amount of release date changes, and the names in the movie, and then seeing only 1,040 theaters, is it theoretically possible for this to not flop? Suspect Zero ($3.4 million) might have had more going for it. And Val Kilmer had Spartan, which only did $2.0 million in 832 theaters. Rollerball did $9.0 million, and LL Cool J was in that.
Jason: The trailer doesn't look that bad.
Lee: That's what I said. It just looks very mediocre.
Jason: It seems like if they had marketed it well 2 years ago, it might have opened with $15.
Lee: Mad Hot Ballroom opens in limited release. I saw it earlier in the year. At the time I was predicting a Spellbound following, but I'm not sure if people know about it.
