Weekend Outlook Chat (April 29 - May 1)

Jason: You were right about last weekend, The Interpreter did have the support from the older audience that was needed to hit $20 million. That and a pretty weak overall box office. But I think you're overly optimistic for the two openers this weekend. I don't see the top 2 grossing over $50 million.

Lee: Both are oddballs to me. I could see xXx going two ways.

Jason: The box office has been so weak and despite last year with this weekend having a strong opening like Mean Girls, I don't see two really strong openings. It's close to summer box office, but not that close. Your predicted top 5 already out-grosses last year's top 10.

Lee: There?s the question of whether Ice Cube is really a big star, but I also screwed up with Scooby Doo 2, which opened last March, when the first one was so successful.

Jason: xXx was really helped by being able to dramatically expand in mid-August. I'm doubtful that this will get that expansion three weeks into its run. Even after expanding to over 3600 theaters, it only managed to finish with a bit over three times its opening weekend.

Lee: The two ranges I'm at are slightly under S.W.A.T. ($37.1 million), and a notch above Once Upon a Time in Mexico ($23.4 million).

Jason: From my prospective, S.W.A.T. had a lot more buzz.

Lee: I agree, but part of the ad-campaign gives me a feeling in that area. The trailer also uses the same music as the first xXx, which sent me a vibe. Samuel L. Jackson got Coach Carter to $24.2 million, but that was an easy genre and it had a lot of promotional support.

Jason: I don't know if Ice Cube brings enough to the movie to prevent xXx2 from suffering the usual sequel slump.

Lee: That's why I'm at Mexico+ in the lower range ? I think he?s a wildcard.

Jason: xXx had better trailers. The action sequences seem to be a rehash and not as exciting. The TV commercials I've seen don't really play up the political aspect as much as the trailer does.

Lee: What range are you at for it?

Jason: $23 million. You've been on a pretty good streak, though, after Sin City of course.

Lee: As much as a rehash as it seems, the clips on Yahoo have a strong tone, which is usually a box office indicator. I might go a little lower than my first prediction.

Jason: The TV ads I've seen haven't portrayed the intensity of the trailer. And the tracking isn't very strong. Granted, the target audience could surprise the polling, but that's always a risk. I feel like something has to give in with your predictions or the weekend has to be extremely strong.

Lee: The first and second Scooby Doo went from $54 million to 29 million on their opening weekends. That would translate to $23 million with xXx2.

Jason: I don't think that's the best model, but that's the range I'm predicting.

Lee: Are We There Yet did $18.6 million as a simple kids movie. Quality wise, xXx2 and Are We There Yet are probably similar, but the action aspect can give it a big edge.

Jason: Well, there is plenty of room for a new action movie. But $34 million seems like the best case scenario.

Lee: Shaft did $21.7 million in 1000 fewer theaters, but that was also in summer.

Jason: This is a sequel, though, not a remake. In a certain sense, remakes have more potential. It's hard to see xXx2 opening in April with only $10 million less than the original that opened in August. And I could argue that Vin Diesel has a stronger box office draw than Ice Cube.

Lee: I would believe so, and the success of The Pacifier proved that he is a star. I'm going to say $28 for the weekend, which is somewhat in the middle of my range.

Jason: What about Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy? I haven't been impressed by the trailers. Besides a few CGI scenes, the sets look really cheap and amateurish.

Lee: The teaser got good reactions from the crowds I've been with, but I never saw a trailer in theaters. Had to watch it online.

Jason: The teaser didn't show anything, though, did it?

Lee: No, but some people cheered at my screening of Life Aquatic.

Jason: I don't know how reliable those crowd reactions are for predictions.

Lee: And it was shown at National Treasure, but these are two different movies. Disney can be unstoppable, which is one of my defenses.

Jason: I think its appeal as a family movie could be a very strong factor: Look at Robots and The Pacifier last weekend. They held up very well and that's a good indication that crowds are hungry for family material. I don't know how well Galaxy will fulfill that need.

Lee: I think it's going to be a family movie. Even though the star-power is limited, the book is huge, but I think it's going to turn off a great portion of the over-20 crowd, who would otherwise show up if it weren't so geared for kids. I have The Polar Express ($23.4 million) as a comparison.

Jason: I was going to predict low, but Disney and PG have been a successful combination.

Lee: I was originally right around The Pacifier?s debut, but Vin Diesel probably gave that a big edge. And that probably had some appeal beyond just kids. There's also The Time Machine as a comparison, which opened to $22.6 million, even though it wasn't entirely a family flick.

Jason: I guess there's always the National Treasure type surprise as well. Time Machine was awful. When the director quits, you're lucky that the movie makes $20 million the first weekend.

Lee: This is National Treasure minus the big Bruckheimer ad-campaign and minus the Nicolas Cage presence ? which translates to what?

Jason: Probably around $10 million less. But it?s hard to say.

Lee: Disney got Ladder 49 to $22.1 million, Miracle $19.3, and Inspector Gadget $21.5.

Jason: You would figure that with such a popular book, they'd get at least Inspector Gadget numbers. I agree a lot more with your Galaxy numbers than the xXx prediction.

Lee: For limited release: 3-Iron, Death of a Dynasty, and The Holy Grail.