Weekend Outlook Chat (April 22 - 24)

Lee: Amityville Horror opened exactly in line with tracking.

Jason: Your prediction wasn't too bad: .01% off. It was an easy weekend though. There have been so many horror movies that you could really pinpoint how this one was going to do.

Lee: It just seemed pretty clear this was not Texas Chainsaw Massacre.

Jason: Yeah, just a quick compare of the trailers could tell you that.

Lee: I was watching clips of it on Yahoo last week and the cheesy nature was similar to Hide and Seek and White Noise, and it opened alongside them.

Jason: This weekend will be a bit more difficult, with a lot more variables.

Lee: There's an argument about whether this acting duo is a strong mainstream pair, but I think Nicole Kidman has moved a distance since The Peacemaker ($12.3 million - $5,213 per-screen).

Jason: Here's the lines from WSEX: The Interpreter $17.5 million, A Lot Like Love $11.5, Kung Fu Hustle $8.5.

Lee: Denzel Washington and Meryl Streep aren?t exactly a hot mainstream pair, in regard to The Manchurian Candidate, and it opened to $20 million in the same genre. It opened in summer, but that's still pretty good for such an edgy political thriller. Interpreter is a very audience-friendly flick, and Sydney Pollack's name means something to the older, intellectual crowds.

Jason: I was thinking more like $15 million.

Lee: I see this as The Recruit ($16.3 million - $6,861 per-screen) but with a respected actress in the lead this time.

Jason: Nicole Kidman hasn't had a lot of great openings in the last few years.

Lee: Recruit didn't have strong star-power for women. The gender ratio will probably be pretty evenly divided. The Stepford Wives did fine at $21 million.

Jason: It opened 5th, though. That weekend was huge.

Lee: It's the gross that counts, though.

Jason: Garfield beat it. You would think Nicole Kidman could beat the voice of Bill Murray. It was a demographics play ? people would have seen any movie that fit on that weekend.

Lee: If such a breezy comedy like The Wedding Date can average $6600/screen in 1700 theaters with limited star-power, I would think a very mainstream thriller with two well known actors wouldn't be too much of a problem to repeat an average like that in 2758 theaters.

Jason: Adjusted for ticket inflation and The Peacemaker would gross $17.5 million today. Peacemaker looked a lot more exciting.

Lee: The theater bookings around here are pretty in tune with the way Be Cool was booked. That did $23.5 and $7300/screen, but in more theaters.

Jason: I think it's going to be a completely different group of moviegoers who show up to Interpreter. It?s not the type that rushes out for the Friday opening.

Lee: I agree, but I think the fact that these are two very established actors could help the stronger markets: Be Cool played really well in some areas due to the hip cast, and Kill Bill had the Tarantino cult audience factor in some cities.

Jason: I'm sticking with $15.

Lee: Mystic River opened to $10.5 in 1467 theaters - $7,118/screen. Granted, that had a lot of buzz, but Sean Penn was still the lead.

Jason: Interpreter is at 61% at Rotten Tomatoes.

Lee: Kidman was talked into Stepford Wives just like Penn was talked into this.

Jason: Both were probably mistakes. What about A Lot Like Love?

Lee: The pairing is uneven and the ad-campaign isn't really centering on any jokes. The conclusion of the trailer is the closest thing the movie has to a joke.

Jason: I'm around $10 million, but the success of The Butterfly Effect does make me wonder. But I just have to look down a line to My Boss's Daughter.

Lee: You could say that Ashton Kutcher is a certified star, but look at My Boss's Daughter ($4.9 million - $2,208 per-screen). This has an edge being that it's a predictable romantic comedy, which are sells to at least a reasonable extent. But Amanda Peet is not Brittany Murphy or Amy Smart in terms of draw power for girls/young women. Not that this has ever stopped movies from making money, but the first time I watched the trailer I kept waiting for the point. She co-starred in The Whole Nine Yards, which opened to $13.8 million, but that had good star-power with Bruce Willis and Matthew Perry.

Jason: Has Punk'd gained Ashton a strong following?

Lee: Punk'd was around when Just Married opened, so I doubt it has escalated his appeal much. Just Married ($17.5 million) had a snappy trailer, Butterfly Effect ($17.1 million) established a tone even though it wasn?t a comedy, and My Boss's Daughter was a very awkward one, and this is sort of in the same league as The Prince & Me ($9.4 million).

Jason: How do you think Kung Fu Hustle will fare in wide release?

Lee: I think it?s going to end up as more of a cult flick. I saw it, and I think it's going to be hard to appeal to a lot of people. But I think the unique nature of it and the overall genre will sell to some extent for now. It's definitely not Crouching Tiger ? there really is no story to it.

Jason: Sony seems to have high hopes for it. They did a lot of advanced screenings and the daily numbers have been impressive.

Lee: I gave it props for some of the ingenuity, but it's a lot of randomness for two hours. Roger Ebert's quote hyped me up a bit too much.

Jason: It's hard to really enjoy a movie going in with high expectations. I think I made that mistake when watching Primer.

Lee: I thought there was so much promise with some of the ideas it presented early on, but it wasn't the movie I thought it was going to be, overall. I kind of liked it because it was different, but it was a bit repetitive and a bit too silly for my taste. Iron Monkey opened to $6.0 million in 1255 theaters and averaged $4,900. I?m at an average of about $1,000 less in 2500 theaters.

Jason: So a little under $10 million?

Lee: It has more theaters than I expected, but I don't think it?s established enough. At first I thought it would have more appeal than Open Water ($11.5 million) when that expanded, but a few of the theaters it's playing in contradict that prediction. Open Water was also marketed to the mainstream crowds as a type of movie that it wasn?t. The commercials made the characters? situation look so thrilling, when in fact the film was actually quiet. They made it look like a mainstream shark thriller, which is an easy sell, whereas this is some wacky kung fu flick where people just fly all over the place.

Jason: What about King's Ransom?

Lee: King's Ransom was like Diary of a Mad Black Woman before I looked into it ? I had no idea what it was. Hopefully it won?t haunt my dreams like that did.

Jason: I don't think it will have the same results. Probably don't want to compare them that way.

Lee: That should be a bit of a stretch. I think there are moviegoers who like Anthony Anderson, but he hasn't carried anything before, which makes his appeal a mystery. And My Baby's Daddy ($7.6 million - $5,219 per-screen) had a reasonably effective trailer for its audience, and also had Eddie Griffin. It feels like another Alone in the Dark ($2.8 million) in that it's getting dumped.

Jason: The trailer has some interesting elements, but I don't think it will gross over $5 million.

Lee: I see it being $3 - 4 million. The story is pretty vague in the trailer, and there aren?t many joke setups. It?s just like, ok, there's some ransom going on, I have no idea what's happening otherwise, but Anthony Anderson is the star. It might take a bit more than that to catch on with audiences.

Jason: For the box office project, I'm at $56.50 up $6.50. This weekend has Interpreter: 14-18, 18-22, 22 or more, 14 or less A Lot Like Love
11-15, 8-11, 8 or less, 15 or more. They pay off about 120%,120%, 240%, 400% respectively. I am going with $2.50 on 8-11 and 14-18.