Weekend Outlook Chat (April 15 - 17)

Jason: I guess I've been busy this week, but I feel like the advertising for Amityville Horror has been pretty weak.

Lee: What gets me caught up when I'm contemplating a bigger opening is that MGM's track record isn't very hot. There's the Texas Chainsaw Massacre ($28.1 million) comparison, but that was New Line and it came off of a summer ad-campaign, and had a very familiar premise.

Jason: I think those ads were a lot better. There's nothing to suggest anything more than the standard horror setup.

Lee: Ryan Reynolds isn't a big star and I don't think it has the Jessica Biel presence as in Texas Chainsaw. MGM's Be Cool made $23.6 million, and the Legally Blondes did $20.4 and $22.1 million. Outside of the studio, Boogeyman did $19.0 million over Super Bowl weekend and it probably would've been $22 without that Sunday hindrance. Dawn of the Dead opened last year at this time to $26.7 million but had a built-in cult audience, and was a zombie flick, which are easy sells. Resident Evil 2 did $23.0 million. It seems like Amityville needs a catch to snag something bigger. And horror movies attract both genders but it still lacks a female star to have strong appeal to that demographic.

Jason: It seems like the series ran into the ground. I?m not sure how many Amityville sequels there were, but I'm not fan of the ones I have seen.

Lee: MGM's sequels have been their only real hits. I get this slight feeling, though, that (producer) Michael Bay could make a strong opening happen, despite the studio?s track record. There's a strong resemblance between the teaser trailer and Texas Chainsaw?s ad-campaign, but not so much in Amityville's official preview.

Jason: I thought TCM had more buzz.

Lee: I agree.

Jason: It was a different kind of horror movie ? much barer and less special effects driven.

Lee: Moviegoers are probably in need of a good scare after Ring Two disappointed, but will they find it in this? The Haunting disappointed people and The Sixth Sense benefited as a result.

Jason: I never saw that connection.

Lee: TCM had more of a twisted nature about itself that moviegoers can be attracted to, like Saw.

Jason: Exactly. Amityville doesn't offer anything unique besides updated effects.

Lee: It feels very formulaic and expected in terms of horror.

Jason: I would put TCM?s $28 opening at the upper range and Boogeyman at the low end.

Lee: Blade III had Reynolds and made only $16.0 million in 3-days, which proved he wasn't really a star, and that was a recognizable franchise.

Jason: Well that's more of a problem with the Blade series than Reynolds.

Lee: That movie even had Biel too.

Jason: He wasn't able to rejuvenate the Blade series, but is that completely his fault?

Lee: To me the "from Michael Bay" credit is less effective in the trailer compared to the positioning in the TCM trailer. I think the movie will get the usual horror buffs, but it looks like it lacks enough selling points to branch out.

Jason: I never understood the hook for Amityville, beyond the "based on true events..."

Lee: Do we ever understand anything?

Jason: I understood the Texas Chainsaw appeal ? that trailer was creepy.

Lee: I haven't seen TCM since it opened in theaters, but at the time I liked it. The original is my all time favorite horror film.

Jason: You predicted $31 for Texas Chainsaw, so you understood the appeal. HSX was only at $18.4. Even BOFC was under with $21.9.

Lee: It looks like after this, horror takes a break for a while.

Jason: The genre had a good run this year.

Lee: The Devil's Rejects is the next one in July. And I have a feeling that one's going to bring out similar masses as Dawn of the Dead.

Jason: I wasn't getting that sense. What makes you think that? It seems like it lacks mainstream appeal.

Lee: I've been in two crowded screenings with that trailer, with the target audience, and the "A Film by Rob Zombie" tagline gets people going.

Jason: That didn't help House of 1000 Corpses much.

Lee: I think this is more of a twisted flick than that.

Jason: Isn't that a negative for box office?

Lee: Not sure. People loved Saw.

Jason: But this is a sequel to a movie that opened with $3.5 million.

Lee: But in only 600 theaters. Summer might help too. There's something about the desert setting and the tone of the teaser that makes me think that it's going to bring in all the cult fans.

Jason: For Amityville, are you going to stick with $23?

Lee: Yes.

Jason: That's exactly what WSEX has, so you're in line with tracking.

Lee: For limited release: Palindromes, State Property II, House of D, and The Year of the Yao.

Jason: Any prediction for State Property?

Lee: Palindromes is opening in 7 theaters. I'm predicting $15,000/screen, somewhat in the middle of Todd Solondz' last two films. State Property averaged $1,000 on Wednesday in 202 theaters. It might double that on Friday.

Isn't MGM closing down or something?

Jason: They?re merging with Sony. I should say, they were purchased by Sony. Actually, it was a private equity group headed by Sony.

Lee: So will we see the Bond movies with the Sony logo now?

Jason: That's a good question. You would think they would stick with MGM/UA.

Lee: Everyone's so used to seeing MGM?s lion before Bond walks the screen.

Jason: Sony will probably take on a distribution role. You have a Saturday increase for Amityville?

Lee: The comparisons hint 1 - 5%.

Jason: Well, I'll have to count on that for it to break $23 million.

Lee: And I figure it might not have the same opening night rush factor as TCM, so I gave it 5%. TCM only increased by 1% on Saturday.

Jason: Next weekend looks pretty weak. I don't think A Lot Like Love will top $10 million. King's Ransom will probably have a moderate release.

Lee: I think Love's going to be lucky to crack $10, and I have Interpreter playing slightly bigger than The Recruit.

Jason: I was thinking low teens. The Recruit had a lot better premise and advertising. I don't know how exciting the UN seems to most American moviegoers.

Lee: I've seen a lot of ads for Interpreter. The political edge could help.

Jason: I don't know, is Sean Penn a solid draw? Politics isn?t really an edge in box office.

Lee: Kidman has an audience, but that's a good question.