Friday Box Office Analysis (4/8)
Sahara poster
By Lee Tistaert     Published April 9, 2005
A second day jump in the low to high 20% range should be on the way, which should give Sahara a weekend of $18 - 19 million, in line with The Rundown and Hidalgo.
Sahara knocked Sin City out of the number one spot on Friday, coming in line with the action picture, Hidalgo, and the buddy-buddy flick, The Rundown. The movie grossed a solid $6.3 million, averaging $1,987 per-screen in 3,154 theaters. In comparison, Hidalgo debuted to $5.8 million and $1,890 per-screen, while The Rundown launched to $6.0 million and $1,915 per-screen.

The Rundown saw its sales spike up 27% on Saturday while Hidalgo received a robust 39% boost. All three flicks are family friendly (which helps Saturday and Sunday matinees), but Hidalgo is probably more so in that regard, which makes an impressive second day boost for Sahara more of a long shot goal. A second day jump somewhere in the low to high 20% range should be on the way, which should give Sahara a weekend tally of $18 - 19 million, in line with Rundown?s $18.5 million and Hidalgo?s $18.8 million weekend finishes.

Fever Pitch, the latest Farrelly brothers? offering, debuted to soft results, turning in $4.4 million, only a slight improvement over their previous effort, Stuck on You. The Jimmy Fallon/Drew Barrymore romantic comedy opened in a very wide release of 3,267 theaters, making its $1,362 average very under-whelming. The Farrelly brothers haven?t had a good run at the box office since their 2001 entry, Shallow Hal, when they teamed up with Jack Black and Gwyneth Paltrow. 2003?s Stuck on You, which lacked star-power with Matt Damon and Greg Kinnear as the duo (an awkward pairing at first sight), debuted to just $3.4 million and $1,132 per-screen on its opening day.

The date factor with Fever Pitch could help it slightly overcome the 17% second day jump of Stuck on You, but much more of a boost will probably take some effort. Shallow Hal and Me Myself & Irene (another Farrelly success) saw 25% and 17% second day boosts, but Irene opened in summer when Friday can be front-loaded, and Hal (which opened in November) had strong support from adult women with Paltrow?s star power. Fever Pitch might increase 17 - 21% on Saturday, which should translate into a $12 - 13 million weekend.
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  • Weekend Outlook Chat (April 8 - 10)
    April 8, 2005    It looks like a by-the-numbers buddy action movie like The Rundown ($18.5 million) and Shanghai Knights ($19.6 million) ? the genre has an audience. -- Staff of LMI