Weekend Outlook Chat (April 8 - 10)

Lee: Last week the tracking for Sin City was even in gear with Constantine and I still didn?t have faith in those numbers. Just like I didn?t believe Ring 2 would open under $40 million and the tracking ended up being right for the most part.

Jason: This weekend should be easier to predict.

Lee: Sin City obviously extended beyond the hardcore fans, but that doesn't mean it will stay around. I think the fact that it's even more of a cult film than Kill Bill: Volume 2 could make the second week drop harsher in comparison.

Jason: It held up better than expected through the weekend. It got good reviews, though, except from a few critics who really hated it.

Lee: The rather impressive mid-week grosses could?ve partly been curious folk. One of the film's beauties is that it's unlike many movies you've seen before, whether you like it or hate it, so that?s part of the buzz.

Jason: There's no reason to think that those people won't show up this weekend.

Lee: I'm just skeptical about how long talk like that can last on a film that is that much of a cult flick. And Constantine at least had an incline on its second day, despite being extremely little. And it dropped like a rock the second week.

I've totally repositioned on Sahara.

Jason: Where to?

Lee: $19 million.

Jason: That's a big difference. I was planning on trying to convince you to raise your prediction. Now it looks like you'll have to convince me.

Lee: Part of it is the theater bookings in LA it's getting (compared to what I expected), and part of it is that I failed to acknowledge that it actually has reasonable star power. It also looks like a by-the-numbers buddy action movie like The Rundown ($18.5 million - $5,880 per-screen) and Shanghai Knights ($19.6 million - $7,121 per-screen) ? the genre has an audience.

Jason: 3,154 theaters is very healthy as well. Why did you think it would only make $8 million? I don't think you've ever changed a prediction by that much.

Lee: I didn't think it had much more going for it than Flight of the Phoenix. I thought the poster was ridiculous (and similar to Son of the Mask), I questioned McConaughey as an action star, and questioned Zahn's star power, but then I realized National Security debuted reasonably well with him. And this looks like a larger scaled film in comparison, like Hidalgo ($18.8 million). And Matthew McConaughey got Reign of Fire to $15.6 million in 2629 theaters.

Jason: I've seen TV spots that try to pass it off as another National Treasure.

Lee: It looks like a mix of National Treasure, Tomb Raider 2, and LXG to me.

Jason: And Flight of the Pheonix.

Lee: Which, if you ask me, were all very mediocre flicks. This fits in well.

Jason: Quality won't be an issue. The box office will be crucial for this movie if the budget of $130 - 140 is returned, and that's just on the production side (without marketing).

Lee: The producers also did Behind Enemy Lines, and that opened to $19. And some might have questioned Owen Wilson's appeal as an action star just like I had originally questioned McConaughey here.

Jason: It seems that Sahara has more going for it than Behind Enemy Lines did. WSEX has $17.5 for Sahara and $13 for Fever Pitch.

Lee: I also watched the clips of the movie on Yahoo and it has a visual look that is similar to some of my comparisons, kind of grainy. Once I started having an epiphany with it box office wise, I had a slight feeling that Fri could be more or less what I was initially predicting for the weekend. I was originally comparing to Eight Legged Freaks as a stupid action movie, but then I figured it had to have a bit more appeal than Son of the Mask ($7.5 million).

Jason: I think $20 million is doable.

Lee: So do I. I could see $18 - 21 million.

Jason: I thought we would have more to debate. What about Fever Pitch? The trailers are disappointing and boring after seeing the same gags over and over.

Lee: It isn't being advertised as "a Farrelly brothers movie," which could mean Fox doesn't want to test their marketability again after Stuck on You ($9.4 million - $3,153 per-screen) failed. And if Fox doesn?t have any faith in their names, there could be little faith in an opening. And three nights in a row of sneak previews last weekend really makes me wonder.

Jason: Yeah, I don't remember any recent film doing that. You have to figure that will drain some of this opening weekend's box office.

Lee: I think this is Stuck on You with a bigger theater count and a little more star power. But in terms of selling points in the material, I think it lacks. Spanglish had one round of sneaks and it debuted to $9 million in 2400 theaters. And it was kind of similar in a sense because it wasn't a traditional Adam Sandler movie, and here the Farrelly's aren't being recognized in the ads.

Jason: I can't imagine many New Yorkers rushing to watch Fever Pitch. It limits its audience when the movie is about obsession with the Red Sox.

Lee: It's a cute, predictable movie like Prince & Me ($9.4 million - $3,507 per-screen) and Wimbledon ($7.1 million - $3,500 per-screen), but given 3200 theaters. And I think the comedy aspect instead of drama gives it an edge over Riding in Cars with Boys, which did $10.5. Riding in Cars was a pretty depressing movie, and it was marketed as a light movie.

Jason: This seems like a really wide release for a Farrelly romantic comedy.

Lee: Theaters could be in desperation.

Jason: I think I would rather pick up Sahara.

Lee: You'd think it would have to outdo Raising Helen, which did $11 in 2717 theaters. But Jimmy Fallon hasn't proven himself as a star yet, and this material doesn't look that different than Taxi ($12.1 million - $4,008 per-screen).

Jason: I don't find the hit-in-the-face with a baseball gag very funny. I have to admit, though, it feels like I've seen that ad a lot more than Sahara.

Lee: That joke played really well with the audience at Be Cool. It was the only joke that got laughs.

Jason: I'm just going to go with $13 million.

Lee: Never Been Kissed grossed $11.8 in 2455.

Jason: All smaller release plans, though.

Lee: If Drew Barrymore?s sidekick isn't Adam Sandler, we don't know if the box office formula works.

Jason: 50 Dates was completely driven by Sandler.

Lee: I think there's a group of people who find Jimmy Fallon annoying. And with the exception of his former career on SNL, I'm probably in that group so far. He's sort of like the Will Ferrell who hasn't found his way yet.

Jason: Will Ferrell has had a lot more success.

Lee: I mean before Old School: A Night at the Roxbury, Superstar, Drowning Mona. Zoolander?s an exception. I actually think Barrymore and Fallon could make a good team with the Farrelly's, but the Farrelly's didn't write the movie, which seems to be the problem. And that could be partly why they aren't being recognized in the marketing.

Jason: The last Boston sports movie, although not a good comparison for box office, was Celtic Pride: opening was $3.8 million, and the total was $9.3. It's too bad we agree this week, I was ready to argue it out over Sahara.

Lee: Judging from the theater bookings, it's looking like Kung Fu Hustle is going to be a big indie: high-$30,000/screen range is possible in 7 theaters, close to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

Jason: Luckily it didn't get the Shaolin Soccer treatment.

Lee: I saw a trailer at Sin City. It didn't get the audience too excited for an 1100 person crowd, but neither did Star Wars. It was a surprisingly low-key audience.

Palindromes opens next Wednesday in New York, which is Todd Solondz' new film. He is probably one of the most controversial filmmakers around. His Welcome to the Dollhouse did $28,000/screen, Happiness $10k, and Storytelling $18k. I'm going to make a raw guess that Palindromes does somewhat like Elephant with $15k/screen.

Jason: The trailer definitely caught my attention.

Lee: He's one of the most twisted filmmakers I've ever seen. Dollhouse had a lot of good buzz but people seemed to be rather turned off by his next two films. Some people, even of the art house type, consider Storytelling and Happiness as two of the worst films they've ever seen. The trailer for Palindromes doesn't say much, which could hurt ? it just makes you feel really weird.

Jason: Yeah, definitely not a must see for the general public.