- Review: John Wick 3 (C)
Scott Sycamore - Weekend Box Office
May 17 - 19 - Crowd Reports
Avengers: Endgame - Us
Box office comparisons - Review: Justice League (C)
Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (March 25 - 27)
By Staff of LMI Published March 24, 2005
Is it me or do the ads for Guess Who lack a certain punch compared to Just Married ($17.5 million) or Butterfly Effect ($17.1 million).
Lee: Wow, Robots topped on Wednesday. Ring Two is doomed.
Jason: I figured the first weekend was most of it was going to get.
Lee: Ring Two's legs are proving how lethal word of mouth can be, and it's not even summer. The two comments I?ve heard most are ?it was disappointing? and ?it sucked,? so it?s a rare example of when moviegoers actually agree with critics. The word of mouth is as bad as The Village and The Hulk.
Jason: It was pretty obvious once the Saturday grosses were out ? a second day drop like that is a serious blow to longterm prospects.
Lee: It couldn't even beat The Grudge, and that seemed like the obvious feat. It dropped on Saturday like Dawn of the Dead, and this isn't even a zombie flick that people would rush out to immediately, at least not to that cult extent. The first Ring made over $120 domestically and this may not even hit $100. It's possible this ends up in the $70's or 80?s. I noticed that 9 brave new theaters are taking on Ring this weekend. You almost wouldn't think it would increase.
Jason: Looks like the sequel didn't have anything to offer. It might have been a mistake to have Hideo Nakata direct it. At first I thought that was a great move, but looking at the reviews it looks like the producers miscalculated.
Lee: I thought Ringu sucked, so Ring Two translated accurately. (And I should probably note that last week I had commented that Ehren Kruger shouldn?t have been the one to write the film, but I didn?t realize that he had written the first Ring as well ? my eyes skipped over the film on his credits.)
Jason: The Ice Princess disappointed as well. You should have stuck with your early prediction of $6.0 million. And there's still talk of a Ring 3.
Lee: Is it me or do the ads for Guess Who lack a certain punch compared to Just Married (Opening Weekend: $17.5 million) or Butterfly Effect ($17.1 million). I think the per-screen average is going to be a little lower but 3147 theaters will make up for that, generally.
Jason: A Reuters review said it was like Meet the Parents. If moviegoers see that connection, it might help the box office opening weekend.
Lee: From the ads it looks like it's Bernie Mac's show rather than Kutcher?s. And it isn't R-rated like Bad Santa ($12.3 million - $6,126 per-screen), which was a solid draw in terms of foul, crude humor. I'm not sure if the PG-13 will be enough to draw in some of those same crowds. And the actress isn't that well known compared to Brittany Murphy or Amy Smart.
Jason: I think it has some surprise upside potential. Hollywood Reporter only said $15 million.
Lee: It doesn't look like it offers much more than Without a Paddle ($13.5 million - $4,955 per-screen) besides star-power.
Jason: Are you sticking with $19 million?
Lee: I'm at $16.5 - 19.
Jason: I'm going with $19+. It needs around $6.6 million on Friday for that.
Lee: This is the first 3100 theater release for Kutcher and Mac headlining, and I'm not sure it's worth it. There are a few jokes in the trailer, but it lacks big selling points. Not that Guess Who will reach this range, but Meet the Parents had Stiller, decent gags, and the fact that DeNiro was using his tough-guy personality in comedy.
Jason: This movie has potential demographic crossover appeal, which, despite their success, Meet the Parents and its sequel lacked.
Lee: I will agree that the crossover appeal could help for Guess Who, and it might surprise on the upside, but I just think there?s something missing in the material they?re advertising.
Jason: Do you think interracial couples might be a turn off for some moviegoers? Will Smith said that was a problem in Hitch. He said that he thought that if his romantic interest was a black woman, it would have lacked the same interest, and that if the love interest had been white, there would be strong resentment, especially from some moviegoers in the Southern US
Lee: I think that was a smart move.
Jason: Here we go: Was race an issue in 'Hitch' casting?
I guess that's why they had Eva Mendes in Out of Time. She seemed a bit out of place with Denzel.
Lee: That whole movie was a bit out of place.
Jason: Agreed ? both of them should have skipped it.
Hollywood Reporter said $26 million is possible for Miss Congeniality's four day opening. I feel that's a bit optimistic.
Lee: I originally had Miss Congeniality at How to Lose a Guy... / Stepford Wives business, but I've been beginning to doubt that outcome this week. The first one made $100 million but with big help from Christmas when people go see any movie that's out. Two Weeks Notice opened to $14 in 2755 and that even had Hugh Grant. Practical Magic did $13 and Bullock was with Kidman.
Jason: Two Weeks Notice was another December release and that came close to $100.
Lee: Legally Blonde did $20 in summer, and part two did $22 in summer.
Jason: The thing with December releases is that the weekends are relatively weak, but the legs make up for that. Although, the Thursday open is going to take some steam out of this weekend.
Lee: There's the question of whether or not people need a sequel for this. I know there's always an audience for material like this, but in another season it's questionable. Ocean's 12 opened the same weekend as the first, and both Legally Blondes opened at similar times.
Jason: I'd be willing to bet Congeniality won't gross $100 million. It might even gross half of the original's total even with a strong opening.
Lee: If The Wedding Date can average $6600 in 1694 theaters, can Congeniality do that?
Jason: Is this a romantic movie, though? I wasn't sure what genre it fell into.
Lee: Wedding Date seemed to find a niche with seniors ? that?s who I saw buying tickets for it. This looks like 30 - 40-year old women.
Jason: It seems like a pointless comedy along the lines of Showtime. I thought of that because of the Shatner connection.
Lee: Showtime is one of my comparisons. Forces of Nature did $13.5 but $6600/screen, and that was Bullock and Affleck.
Jason: All of those movies had clear plots. This seems to be relying on the fact that it's a sequel. I still have it at $16, which is around what the tracking is at.
Lee: I'm going to go with $18. I have a feeling it might top over Guess Who, but I'm probably going to give it 2nd.
Melinda and Melinda earned $74,000 last week at 1 theater in NY ? Down with Love grossed $45,000 at 1 theater there before it opened nationwide. But for a Woody Allen movie, that gross doesn't really surprise me. Anything Else might have debuted pretty decently there on 1 screen. Melinda is about NY intellectuals, so you'd think it wouldn't be a tough sell for moviegoers there.
Jason: A.O. Scott said the movie was architectural pornography.
Lee: $70,000 averages can translate into the mid-to-high-$10,000 range the second week. That's what happened with Punch-Drunk Love ($19,000 in 78 theaters). I Heart Huckabees went from $73,000 in 4 theaters to $20,500 in 44, and then $14,000 in 65. Melinda and Melinda is expanding to 95 theaters.
Jason: It averaged $1,237 on Wednesday in its expansion to 59 theaters, which is a bit above Upside of Anger.
Also in limited release this weekend: D.E.B.S., Mondovino, Nina's Tragedies, Old Boy, Ballad of Jack and Rose (note: nothing to do with Titanic), Lipstick & Dynamite, The Helix...Loaded, Dallas 362.
Lee: Mondovino opens in NY in 1 theater. I saw part of it on Monday night. I walked out of the screening 45 minutes into it. The presentation was incredibly tedious, and it's 135 minutes. It?s about the globalization of wine and the economic impact. I almost didn't go in fear of being bored, but it was free.
Jason: Yeah, I watched the trailer for that. It's subtitled, isn't it?
Lee: Yes. It gets too carried away with raw facts and numbers. It made me wish Michael Moore had done it ? he at least knows how to enlighten and entertain with subject matters, which this didn't come close to doing.
Jason: Would this be an F review had you been forced to sit through it?
Lee: I probably would've given it a C if I had stayed. It was one of those nights when being extremely bored for over two hours just wasn't going to happen. It was like trying to endure Dogville (which was three hours). There were a few other people who walked out too, claiming it was the worst movie they'd ever seen. It wasn?t a failure ? it was well shot, but the pace is terribly slow and not much was happening. If I had been obligated to review it, I would?ve stayed.
Jason: Remember how we were talking about boring movie posters? Here are a few that aren't afraid to spice things up:
Romance and Cigarettes Girl Play
I can imagine a lot of people objecting to them if they were posted in a theater.
Lee: Reminds me of the Pulp Fiction poster, had Uma Thurman been lying down on the bed the other way.
Jason: Next week Beauty Shop opens on Wednesday and Sin City on Friday.
Lee: 2300+ early estimate for Beauty Shop is not a huge encouragement.
Jason: There's also The War of the Worlds opening ? the independent ?true-to-the-book? version.
Lee: Sin City is getting at least 3000 theaters, but I'm not so sure of its mainstream potential anymore.
Jason: That seems risky. Unless it somehow really impresses audiences, I could see Ring 2 type legs without the $30-million opening.
Lee: Whatever the opening is, it's likely to disappear like Team America.
Jason: I figured the first weekend was most of it was going to get.
Lee: Ring Two's legs are proving how lethal word of mouth can be, and it's not even summer. The two comments I?ve heard most are ?it was disappointing? and ?it sucked,? so it?s a rare example of when moviegoers actually agree with critics. The word of mouth is as bad as The Village and The Hulk.
Jason: It was pretty obvious once the Saturday grosses were out ? a second day drop like that is a serious blow to longterm prospects.
Lee: It couldn't even beat The Grudge, and that seemed like the obvious feat. It dropped on Saturday like Dawn of the Dead, and this isn't even a zombie flick that people would rush out to immediately, at least not to that cult extent. The first Ring made over $120 domestically and this may not even hit $100. It's possible this ends up in the $70's or 80?s. I noticed that 9 brave new theaters are taking on Ring this weekend. You almost wouldn't think it would increase.
Jason: Looks like the sequel didn't have anything to offer. It might have been a mistake to have Hideo Nakata direct it. At first I thought that was a great move, but looking at the reviews it looks like the producers miscalculated.
Lee: I thought Ringu sucked, so Ring Two translated accurately. (And I should probably note that last week I had commented that Ehren Kruger shouldn?t have been the one to write the film, but I didn?t realize that he had written the first Ring as well ? my eyes skipped over the film on his credits.)
Jason: The Ice Princess disappointed as well. You should have stuck with your early prediction of $6.0 million. And there's still talk of a Ring 3.
Lee: Is it me or do the ads for Guess Who lack a certain punch compared to Just Married (Opening Weekend: $17.5 million) or Butterfly Effect ($17.1 million). I think the per-screen average is going to be a little lower but 3147 theaters will make up for that, generally.
Jason: A Reuters review said it was like Meet the Parents. If moviegoers see that connection, it might help the box office opening weekend.
Lee: From the ads it looks like it's Bernie Mac's show rather than Kutcher?s. And it isn't R-rated like Bad Santa ($12.3 million - $6,126 per-screen), which was a solid draw in terms of foul, crude humor. I'm not sure if the PG-13 will be enough to draw in some of those same crowds. And the actress isn't that well known compared to Brittany Murphy or Amy Smart.
Jason: I think it has some surprise upside potential. Hollywood Reporter only said $15 million.
Lee: It doesn't look like it offers much more than Without a Paddle ($13.5 million - $4,955 per-screen) besides star-power.
Jason: Are you sticking with $19 million?
Lee: I'm at $16.5 - 19.
Jason: I'm going with $19+. It needs around $6.6 million on Friday for that.
Lee: This is the first 3100 theater release for Kutcher and Mac headlining, and I'm not sure it's worth it. There are a few jokes in the trailer, but it lacks big selling points. Not that Guess Who will reach this range, but Meet the Parents had Stiller, decent gags, and the fact that DeNiro was using his tough-guy personality in comedy.
Jason: This movie has potential demographic crossover appeal, which, despite their success, Meet the Parents and its sequel lacked.
Lee: I will agree that the crossover appeal could help for Guess Who, and it might surprise on the upside, but I just think there?s something missing in the material they?re advertising.
Jason: Do you think interracial couples might be a turn off for some moviegoers? Will Smith said that was a problem in Hitch. He said that he thought that if his romantic interest was a black woman, it would have lacked the same interest, and that if the love interest had been white, there would be strong resentment, especially from some moviegoers in the Southern US
Lee: I think that was a smart move.
Jason: Here we go: Was race an issue in 'Hitch' casting?
I guess that's why they had Eva Mendes in Out of Time. She seemed a bit out of place with Denzel.
Lee: That whole movie was a bit out of place.
Jason: Agreed ? both of them should have skipped it.
Hollywood Reporter said $26 million is possible for Miss Congeniality's four day opening. I feel that's a bit optimistic.
Lee: I originally had Miss Congeniality at How to Lose a Guy... / Stepford Wives business, but I've been beginning to doubt that outcome this week. The first one made $100 million but with big help from Christmas when people go see any movie that's out. Two Weeks Notice opened to $14 in 2755 and that even had Hugh Grant. Practical Magic did $13 and Bullock was with Kidman.
Jason: Two Weeks Notice was another December release and that came close to $100.
Lee: Legally Blonde did $20 in summer, and part two did $22 in summer.
Jason: The thing with December releases is that the weekends are relatively weak, but the legs make up for that. Although, the Thursday open is going to take some steam out of this weekend.
Lee: There's the question of whether or not people need a sequel for this. I know there's always an audience for material like this, but in another season it's questionable. Ocean's 12 opened the same weekend as the first, and both Legally Blondes opened at similar times.
Jason: I'd be willing to bet Congeniality won't gross $100 million. It might even gross half of the original's total even with a strong opening.
Lee: If The Wedding Date can average $6600 in 1694 theaters, can Congeniality do that?
Jason: Is this a romantic movie, though? I wasn't sure what genre it fell into.
Lee: Wedding Date seemed to find a niche with seniors ? that?s who I saw buying tickets for it. This looks like 30 - 40-year old women.
Jason: It seems like a pointless comedy along the lines of Showtime. I thought of that because of the Shatner connection.
Lee: Showtime is one of my comparisons. Forces of Nature did $13.5 but $6600/screen, and that was Bullock and Affleck.
Jason: All of those movies had clear plots. This seems to be relying on the fact that it's a sequel. I still have it at $16, which is around what the tracking is at.
Lee: I'm going to go with $18. I have a feeling it might top over Guess Who, but I'm probably going to give it 2nd.
Melinda and Melinda earned $74,000 last week at 1 theater in NY ? Down with Love grossed $45,000 at 1 theater there before it opened nationwide. But for a Woody Allen movie, that gross doesn't really surprise me. Anything Else might have debuted pretty decently there on 1 screen. Melinda is about NY intellectuals, so you'd think it wouldn't be a tough sell for moviegoers there.
Jason: A.O. Scott said the movie was architectural pornography.
Lee: $70,000 averages can translate into the mid-to-high-$10,000 range the second week. That's what happened with Punch-Drunk Love ($19,000 in 78 theaters). I Heart Huckabees went from $73,000 in 4 theaters to $20,500 in 44, and then $14,000 in 65. Melinda and Melinda is expanding to 95 theaters.
Jason: It averaged $1,237 on Wednesday in its expansion to 59 theaters, which is a bit above Upside of Anger.
Also in limited release this weekend: D.E.B.S., Mondovino, Nina's Tragedies, Old Boy, Ballad of Jack and Rose (note: nothing to do with Titanic), Lipstick & Dynamite, The Helix...Loaded, Dallas 362.
Lee: Mondovino opens in NY in 1 theater. I saw part of it on Monday night. I walked out of the screening 45 minutes into it. The presentation was incredibly tedious, and it's 135 minutes. It?s about the globalization of wine and the economic impact. I almost didn't go in fear of being bored, but it was free.
Jason: Yeah, I watched the trailer for that. It's subtitled, isn't it?
Lee: Yes. It gets too carried away with raw facts and numbers. It made me wish Michael Moore had done it ? he at least knows how to enlighten and entertain with subject matters, which this didn't come close to doing.
Jason: Would this be an F review had you been forced to sit through it?
Lee: I probably would've given it a C if I had stayed. It was one of those nights when being extremely bored for over two hours just wasn't going to happen. It was like trying to endure Dogville (which was three hours). There were a few other people who walked out too, claiming it was the worst movie they'd ever seen. It wasn?t a failure ? it was well shot, but the pace is terribly slow and not much was happening. If I had been obligated to review it, I would?ve stayed.
Jason: Remember how we were talking about boring movie posters? Here are a few that aren't afraid to spice things up:
Romance and Cigarettes Girl Play
I can imagine a lot of people objecting to them if they were posted in a theater.
Lee: Reminds me of the Pulp Fiction poster, had Uma Thurman been lying down on the bed the other way.
Jason: Next week Beauty Shop opens on Wednesday and Sin City on Friday.
Lee: 2300+ early estimate for Beauty Shop is not a huge encouragement.
Jason: There's also The War of the Worlds opening ? the independent ?true-to-the-book? version.
Lee: Sin City is getting at least 3000 theaters, but I'm not so sure of its mainstream potential anymore.
Jason: That seems risky. Unless it somehow really impresses audiences, I could see Ring 2 type legs without the $30-million opening.
Lee: Whatever the opening is, it's likely to disappear like Team America.
'Guess Who' Articles
- Craig's Guess Who review C
March 27, 2005 Should be saying more about racial differences than it actually does, and in a much funnier way. -- Craig Younkin - Friday Box Office Analysis (3/25)
March 26, 2005 The debut {of Guess Who} marks the biggest opening day for either star headlining a picture. -- Lee Tistaert
