Weekend Outlook Chat (March 18 - 20)

Jason: Last weekend was a shocker for me. I was positive The Passion Recut would make at least over $3 million. Seeing it with the lowest theater average was unthinkable.

Lee: I predicted $750/screen on Friday and the film barely even made a third of that over the weekend. And I thought that was pessimistic.

Jason: Hostage did about what people expected. We were a little too pessimistic.

Lee: It was in line with Cellular. And it might have had a bit older appeal than I thought, in addition to young moviegoers; it had a good Sat boost.

Jason: It actually adjusted higher between the weekend estimates and finals. Robots ended up being a slight box office disappointment. I saw quite a few $50 million predictions, but I was pretty confident that was too high.

Lee: I think my initial prediction a little while ago was pretty close before I got swayed over by the visual effects ? the fact that Ice Age had more going for it in terms of a memorable ad-campaign. This was obviously aimed strictly at kids, whereas Ice Age was somewhat universal in appeal.

Jason: I thought the trailer for Ice Age was just better.

Lee: I don't think you can really blame the voice talent, as that doesn't seem to matter. I used to think it did play a part.

Jason: How about this weekend ? looks like you're pretty confident about The Ring Two. The WSEX lines are at $43 for Ring and $8.5 for Ice Princess. Looks a lot like last weekend's openers.

Lee: I've read that industry tracking has it right around The Grudge ($39.1 million Opening Weekend - $12,057 per-screen), which I think is conservative. Signs and The Ring were two big reasons that Scary Movie 3 managed $48 million ($13,794 per-screen) in its debut. Sarah Michelle Gellar propelled Grudge, but this has a huge built in fan base. The Ring had huge legs.

Jason: You?d think Ring Two would make at least as much as The Grudge.

Lee: It reminds me of the Bad Boys scenario.

Jason: How so?

Lee: Bad Boys wasn't a big hit in theaters, but a lot of people really liked it over time, and then the sequel opened to $46.5 million ($14,602 per-screen).

Jason: For a movie to gross nearly nine times its opening weekend is impressive, especially for a horror movie. The consensus estimate looks to be $42 - 43 for Ring. That's what BOFC, HSX, and WSEX are at.

Lee: If thrillers like The Sixth Sense ($26.4 million) and White Noise ($24.1 million) can average up to $12,000 on a weekend in 2200 theaters, I'm having a hard time believing Ring?s not going to do a little more in 3300. It has been a cheesy horror movie year so far, and this is the first one people are probably taking seriously, even though reviews are not good. When I saw Constantine, people hushed right away at the beginning of the Ring trailer, and you could tell they almost wanted to see the movie instead of Constantine. Some people even clapped when the preview finished, which rarely happens at this theater.

Jason: My brother saw Ring 2 on Wednesday and said it was pretty disappointing: clich? and slow, and that the plot was much better in the original one. I find that strange given it's the original director who did Ringu. You would think he would just polish up Ringu 2.

Lee: It looks like it's in the same boat as Be Cool: the wrong writer got the job. The writer also did Scream 3, Imposter, and Reindeer Games.
(Added Note: Ehren Kruger, who wrote Ring 2, also wrote the first Ring - I was mistaken when the chat was in session)

Jason: That explains a lot.

Lee: And the weird thing is that the movie has two really good producers. You wonder why they let that guy on board.

Jason: That's worrisome for the legs of the movie, but I don't think it will affect opening weekend.

Lee: Walter F. Parkes and Laura MacDonald have a really good track record: Men in Black, Catch Me If You Can, Road to Perdition, Minority Report, Gladiator, amongst others. I think Ring Two's closer to MIB than the rest of those.

Jason: I think Ring Two will gross in the high $40s for the first weekend, but there's some psychological barrier at $50 for me.

Lee: I remember predictions were high on Minority Report, up to $50 mil, and its $35.7 million take was considered a little disappointing to some people. I was one of the $50 forecasts.

Jason: I have to admit, though, that it's one of the first times that an HBO special preview (of The Ring Two) made me want to see a movie less. It seems like it gets away from the original story.

Lee: I've got it just under $50. Yeah, there are parts of the trailer that seem quite creepy, and other parts which just make me think it's a total rehash.

Jason: When they went through the plot, I felt like they had abandoned the original story. It looked like the typical sequel problem.

Lee: There's something about Sissy Spacek in that role which makes me think it's just another horror sequel.

Jason: Going back to the writer of Scream 3, it looks like they suddenly break all the rules that were set up in the original. That might work in the Scream series when it was a take-off of horror movies, but The Ring was a serious horror movie. Scripts that ignore the premise of the original are insulting.

Lee: Many people thought MIB2 disappointed in entertainment and it almost hit $200 in total. And that was in summer, when word of mouth can be tragic for box office: The Hulk. And the first Scream wasn't as big as Ring was, which is another thing that makes me think Ring 2's going to be bigger than Scream 2 ($32.9 million - $12,364 per-screen in 2663 theaters). And Scream was R.

Jason: And that was 1997. In 2005 dollars, it is $46.3 million. I'm going to predict $47.5.

Lee: Scary Movie 3 opened in October and this is opening in March, so neither were given summer releases, and SM3 had a slight Saturday increase.

Jason: It's a bit on the high side, but I think Robots spooked a lot of predictors last weekend.

Lee: I'm at $48. I think the fact that it isn't summer could help Sat, but it still might fall. There's a chance.

Jason: I think Friday will be front-loaded. Looking at the daily breakdown makes me a bit worried, especially if Ring 2 doesn't have a Saturday increase; to get a $47 million weekend, looks like it needs $18 million minimum on Friday.

Lee: DreamWorks is just hoping they're not the next Village in terms of word of mouth. But I think this is more of a horror movie than The Village. People just got tricked with Disney's marketing, so this one shouldn?t piss people off as much. Ring Two also isn't getting a massive theater count like The Village (3730). I've got The Bourne Supremacy ($52.5 million weekend) as a possibility for Friday: $18.4 million in 3165 theaters for $5,825 per-screen.